WNBA Playoffs 2021 Semifinal Preview: (2) Las Vegas Aces vs. (5) Phoenix Mercury

SERIES SCHEDULE

• Game 1: Mercury at Aces, Sept. 28, 10:00 ET, ESPN2 (Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas)
• Game 2: Mercury at Aces, Sept. 30, 10:00 ET, ESPN2 (Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas)
• Game 3: Aces at Mercury, Oct. 3, 3:00 ET, ABC (Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ)
• Game 4*: Aces at Mercury, Oct. 6, Time TBD, ESPN (Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ)
• Game 5*: Mercury at Aces, Oct. 8, Time TBD, ESPN2 (Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas)

*If necessary

HOW THEY GOT HERE

Las Vegas Aces (24-8)

– Finished with No. 2 seed and earned double-bye to the semifinal round

Phoenix Mercury (19-13)

– Defeated No. 8 New York 83-82 in single-elimination first round

– Defeated No. 4 Seattle 85-80 in overtime in the single-elimination second round

SEASON SERIES (LVA 2, PHX 1)

• May 26: LVA 85, PHX 79
• July 7: PHX 99, LVA 90
• Sept 19: LVA 84, PHX 83

A few key notes about this season series. First, Diana Taurasi missed all three games against Las Vegas this season, most recently in the season finale matchup due to her injured ankle. Second, the road team won each game.

Phoenix (12-4) and Las Vegas (11-5) were two of the top road teams in the league this season. In fact, Phoenix is one of two teams (along with Chicago) to finish the regular season with a better road record than home record (7-9). That five-win disparity between home and away wins is the biggest in the league.

The Aces featured a balanced offense in their season series with Phoenix; they were led by Kelsey Plum at 16.5 points per game, but followed closely by A’ja Wilson (16.3), Jackie Young (16.3), Chelsea Gray (15.3) and Liz Cambage (10.0). Wilson led the Aces in rebounding (9.0) and points in the paint (10.7), while Gray was the top playmaker with 5.7 assists per game.

Without Taurasi, the Mercury got a combined 42 points per game from the other two members of the Big Three: Brittney Griner (22.0) and Skylar Diggins-Smith (20.0). Griner added 8.3 rebounds and 2.0 blocks, while Diggins-Smith added 8.7 assists – her highest mark against any team this season. Brianna Turner, who has averaged a double-double (12.0 points, 10.5 rebounds) in the playoffs, was held to just 3.3 points against Las Vegas this season.

THREE STORYLINES TO WATCH

1. How will Taurasi’s ankle respond to playing in the second round?

After suffering an ankle injury against Indiana on Sept. 6, Diana Taurasi missed the final four games of the regular season and Phoenix’s first-round playoff game against New York. With the Mercury facing another single-elimination round against the defending champs in Seattle, Taurasi warmed up and said she was good enough to give it a go.

Taurasi was visibly struggling at times throughout the game, but her presence on the court helped Phoenix – as did her clutch buckets in overtime – as she logged 33 minutes of action. The question now is how will the ankle respond after that game, without only one day off and travel from Seattle to Las Vegas?

While the Mercury are working on short rest, the Aces have been off for more than a week heading into Game 1. Will that rest be beneficial or will it take the Aces some time to find a rhythm in Game 1?

2. The Griner vs. Cambage matchup

There aren’t many players that can match Brittney Griner (6-foot-9) in stature and strength – Liz Cambage (6-foot-8) is one of them. As we saw in the first two rounds of the playoffs, Griner commands so much attention and draws so many double teams from most defenses. Can Cambage defend Griner one-on-one and let the rest of the Aces play straight up rather than having to constantly double-team and rotate to open shooters?

Cambage returned to the lineup for the regular season finale after missing three weeks due to COVID-19. She played just 10 minutes off the bench in that game as the Aces were already locked into their playoff position and didn’t need to extend her minutes. Here is a case where the nine-day gap between the regular season and the semifinals may be beneficial as it gave Cambage another week of rest and recovery, so hopefully she’ll be at full strength when Game 1 tips off on Tuesday.

3. The Big Three vs. The Balanced Attack

The Aces accomplished a first in WNBA history this season as they finished with seven players averaging in double figures as A’ja Wilson (18.3 ppg, 6th in WNBA) leads a balanced Las Vegas offense. She is joined by Kelsey Plum (14.8), Liz Cambage (14.2), Jackie Young (12.2), Dearica Hamby (11.6), Chelsea Gray (11.1) and Riquna Williams (10.5).

On the flip side, the Mercury have only three double-figure scorers on their roster – the Big Three of Brittney Griner (20.5), Skylar Diggins-Smith (17.7) and Diana Taurasi (15.2). Phoenix has a history of Big Three scoring as this is the fifth time (2021, 2020. 2018, 2010, 2007) they have had three players average at least 15 points while playing at least half of that season’s games.

There have only been four other instances of a team accomplishing that feat in all of WNBA history (2013 Tulsa and Chicago, 2008 Los Angeles, 2000 Houston). An interesting note that the 2013 Tulsa team featured both Cambage and Williams – the two players with the highest scoring games in league history, and now both members of the Aces.

Phoenix’s Big Three accounts for 65% of the team’s total offense (53.4 of its 82.1 points per game). Meanwhile, Las Vegas’s top three scorers only account for only 53% of the team’s total offense (47.3 points per game).

ONE STAT TO WATCH

This is a matchup of the top two teams in offensive efficiency this season – Las Vegas finished first at 107.1 points per possessions, while Phoenix was second at 104.3. Since the Aces also play at the league’s fastest pace (82.49 possessions per 40 minutes), they easily led all teams in scoring at 89.3 points per game over the course of the 32-game season. That mark was nearly five points clear of any other team and 7.2 points greater than Phoenix, which played at the league’s second-slowest pace (77.97).

During their regular season series, the Mercury averaged 87 points, while the Aces averaged 86.3. Clearly both teams can put up points, so this series may boil down to which team can get the necessary and timely stops.

The Aces finished with the league’s second-ranked defense over the course of the season (96.0 points allowed per 100 possessions). The Mercury finished seventh with a defensive rating of 101.3, and have been close to that mark in their first two playoff games (100.0) in the opening rounds.

The Mercury feature two members of the 2021 WNBA All-Defensive Teams with Brianna Turner earning first team honors and Brittney Griner on the second team after leading the WNBA for the eighth time in her nine WNBA seasons. The Aces did not have any players on the All-Defensive Teams despite ranking second in defensive efficiency as a team. Insert chip on shoulder here.