2025 WNBA Finals Preview: (2) Las Vegas Aces vs. (4) Phoenix Mercury
The stage for the 2025 WNBA Finals presented by YouTube TV is set.
The second-seeded Las Vegas Aces will face the fourth-seeded Phoenix Mercury in the first-ever best-of-seven series in WNBA history to decide the league’s 29th champion.
Finals Schedule
- Game 1: Mercury at Aces (Friday, Oct. 3, 8 ET, ESPN)
- Game 2: Mercury at Aces (Sunday, Oct. 5, 3 ET, ABC)
- Game 3: Aces at Mercury (Wednesday, Oct. 8, 8 ET, ESPN)
- Game 4: Aces at Mercury (Friday, Oct. 10, 8 ET, ESPN)
- Game 5: Mercury at Aces (Sunday, Oct. 12, 3 ET, ABC)*
- Game 6: Aces at Mercury (Wednesday, Oct. 15, 8 ET, ESPN)*
- Game 7: Mercury at Aces (Friday, Oct. 17, 8 ET, ESPN)*
*If necessary
How They Got Here
Aces: Las Vegas entered the playoffs on a 16-game win streak, but went the distance in both playoff rounds to return to the Finals stage following a one-year absence.
- Regular Season: Sitting at .500 (14-14) through 28 games, the Aces won their final 16 games to finish 30-14 and earn the 2 seed
- First Round: Defeated the Seattle Storm in three games (2-1)
- Semifinals: Defeated the Indiana Fever in five games (3-2)
- Finals: Making their third Finals appearance in last four seasons (fifth overall: 2008 as the San Antonio Silver Stars, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025), and seeking third championship in franchise history (2022, 2023)
Mercury: Phoenix defeated last year’s two finalists – the defending champion Liberty and runner-up Lynx – in the first season of their new-look squad following the retirement of Diana Taurasi and departure of Brittney Griner as part of a roster overhaul.
- Regular Season: Despite dropping their final three games, the Mercury finished two wins shy of a franchise record at 27-17 to earn the 4 seed
- First Round: Defeated the New York Liberty in three games (2-1)
- Semifinals: Defeated the Minnesota Lynx in four games (3-1)
- Finals: Making their first Finals appearance since 2021 (sixth overall: 1998, 2007, 2009, 2014, 2021, 2025), and seeking fourth championship in franchise history (2007, 2009, 2014)
Regular Season Series
Las Vegas won the season series over Phoenix, 3-1, with three of the four games decided by six points or less.
- June 15: Mercury 76, Aces 70
- June 29: Aces 84, Mercury 81
- Aug. 15: Aces 86, Mercury 83
- Aug. 21: Aces 83, Mercury 61
The Aces were led by four-time MVP A’ja Wilson, who averaged 25 points and 15.7 rebounds over three games (all Aces wins) against Phoenix, while Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray each averaged 14+ points and 5+ assists while playing all four games.
The Mercury were led by All-Stars Satou Sabally, who averaged a team-high 18.3 points along with 6.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 2.3 triples over four games, while triple-double queen Alyssa Thomas stuffed the stat sheet, averaging 15.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 9.0 assists and 1.8 steals over the four matchups.
Series Breakdown: 3 Things To Watch
1. Strength vs. Strength
This matchup sees the best offense of the postseason (Las Vegas) against the best defense of the postseason (Phoenix).
- The Aces lead the WNBA playoffs in offensive rating (108.9), points per game (87.0) and effective field goal percentage (53.9%) over eight games.
- The Mercury lead the WNBA playoffs in defensive rating (92.2) and fewest opponent points per game (75.9), while allowing the third-lowest effective field goal percentage (45.5%) over seven games.
The must-see matchup in this series is Las Vegas’ A’ja Wilson vs. Phoenix’s Alyssa Thomas, who finished first and third, respectively, in MVP voting this year. Both serve as their team’s centerpiece on both ends of the court.
- On offense, Wilson led the league in scoring (23.4 ppg), while Thomas led the league in assists (9.2 apg).
- On defense, Wilson led the league in blocks (2.3 bpg), while both players finished top five in steals and rebounding.
How will Phoenix try to contain the scoring from Wilson, who is coming off a 35-point effort in Game 5 against Indiana to set the WNBA record for most career 30+ point playoff games (8)? This year, the Aces are 14-2 between the regular season and playoffs when Wilson scores 30+ points.
Between Thomas, Sabally and Natasha Mack, the Mercury have tough post defenders to throw at Wilson as it will take a team effort to keep the MVP from getting buckets.
Conversely, can the Aces slow down Thomas as a playmaker and prevent AT from distributing to her teammates? Between the regular season (13-3) and playoffs (3-0), the Mercury are 16-3 this season when AT drops at least 10 dimes. Finding a way to make “The Engine” more of a scorer than a passer could be key for Vegas.
In 26 career head-to-head matchups, Wilson has a 17-9 edge over Thomas, including a 6-3 record in the playoffs as Wilson’s Aces eliminated Thomas’ Sun in both 2020 (Semifinals) and 2022 (Finals).
2. Which Team Will Win Clutch Time?
With three of their four regular season matchups being decided by six points or less, we can expect close games throughout this series. That means the team that executes best in the pressure-packed closing minutes will have the best shot at hoisting the WNBA championship trophy this month.
Throughout the regular season and postseason, the Aces and Mercury have been two of the best teams in the league in clutch situations – defined as the final five minutes with the score within five points.
During the regular season, the Aces went a league-best 14-5 (.737 win percentage) in clutch games, with the Mercury not far behind with the third-highest win percentage at 13-8 (.619). In the playoffs, six of Phoenix’s seven games have featured clutch time and the Mercury have gone 4-2 in those games, while Vegas is 2-2 in clutch playoff games.
Keep an eye on these players as the clock ticks down in the fourth quarter.
- Alyssa Thomas (PHX): Tied for fifth in total clutch points (50) and first in clutch assists (17) while shooting 74.1% (20-of-27) – second among players with 10+ shot attempts.
- Jackie Young (LVA): Tied with Thomas with 50 total clutch points, while posting 50-50-100 shooting splits, showing off the ice water in her veins by going 21-of-21 at the line.
- Jewell Loyd (LVA): The only player to shoot a higher percentage than AT was Loyd, who shot 75% (9-of-12), including tying for the league-high in clutch 3-pointers made with six on just seven attempts (85.7%).
- Satou Sabally (PHX) and A’ja Wilson (LVA): Tied for 12th in clutch scoring with 40 points apiece, with Wilson leading all players in clutch plus/minus at +52 in 47 minutes.
3. AT Chasing Elusive WNBA Title
After an eight-year run of contention in Connecticut — including WNBA Finals losses in 2019 (to Washington) and 2022 (to Las Vegas) — Alyssa Thomas joined the Mercury in the offseason as part of a historic 10-team trade.
She was part of a roster overhaul for the Mercury, who carried over only two players from 2024 to 2025 – Kahleah Copper and Mack. The city may have changed for Thomas, but AT’s all-around excellence (single-season record nine triple-doubles, more than any other player in league history for their career) led to another deep playoff run.
While Thomas has racked up plenty of accolades over the course of her WNBA career – she’s a six-time All-Star, a three-time All-WNBA performer (likely to soon to be four-time), a six-time All-Defensive Team selection (likely to soon to be seven-time), a season-long league lead in three different categories (steals in 2020, rebounds in 2023, assists in 2025) – the ultimate prize of a WNBA title (and potential Finals MVP) has eluded her thus far.
Will the third WNBA Finals appearance be the charm for Thomas to add champion to her already outstanding resume.
Potential X-Factors To Watch
AT Triple-Double Watch: The Mercury are 8-1 this season when Alyssa Thomas records a triple-double, including her 20-point, 11-rebound, 11-assist performance in the series-clinching win over New York in the first round.
DB Back In The Valley: After being released by Indiana, DeWanna Bonner signed with the Mercury as a free agent, returning to Phoenix, where she played her first 10 WNBA seasons and won two titles (2009, 2014). The Mercury are 8-2 this season (including the playoffs) when Bonner scores 13+ points.
Trio Of Finals MVPs: Three of the last four players to be named WNBA Finals MVP will be in this series: Las Vegas’ A’ja Wilson (2023) and Chelsea Gray (2022) as well as Phoenix’s Kahleah Copper (2021 with Chicago). All three players possess the skills to take over a game at any time and have proven to be players that can single-handedly swing a series.
Jewell Looking For More Gold: Already a two-time champion during her decade-long run in Seattle, Loyd is in her first season in Vegas following an offseason trade. Loyd’s midseason move to a reserve role coincided with Las Vegas’ season-ending run to the 2 seed. She’s averaged 12.1 points on 40.9% 3-point shooting off the bench.
Limited Travel: With Las Vegas and Phoenix separated by just 300 miles, travel between the two cities should be a breeze in this duel of the desert – compared to a matchup of teams on opposing coasts – giving both teams more time to recover and prepare for each ensuing game.