The W on ABC: Storylines for Each Upcoming Matchup


There are less than 30 days left in the 2022 WNBA season, which is absolutely bonkers to contemplate. While the regular season is winding down, there are still numerous big matchups and noteworthy games. There are two pockets or tiers of playoff contention with a top group (Chicago, Las Vegas, Washington, Seattle, Connecticut) that are all still jockeying for positioning over the last 10 or so games.

The second tier is everyone minus Indiana; they are still a fun watch! Just not playoff bound or close to it. The Lynx and Sparks have played better basketball of late. Atlanta has shown bright flashes of better offense with Tiffany Hayes healthy. Any number of things could happen across this group as the season winds down, making it more enticing.

Especially in a postseason that tips off a new playoff format with three-game series, creating an opportunity for more variance than in the latter two rounds with best of five series, the match-ups presented by each team is a storyline that only heightens an intrigue over the final month of play.

With five nationally televised games remaining on the ABC broadcast schedule, each carries a different weight as the season rounds out. Why does each game matter? Who are the X factors?

 

July 17th Connecticut vs Las Vegas: 1 pm Eastern

In their third and final matchup of the season, the Sun, and Aces clash at Mohegan Sun in Uncasville. With the season series currently split after a pair of early matchups, this game carries significant weight for both squads seeking to bolster their seeding during the last third of the season.

The Sun and Aces have equally struggled with finding their footing in the halfcourt offensively, and this game will provide a great test for each team as they look to shore up weaknesses.

A’ja Wilson is on an absolute tear averaging 20.4 points per game on 54/42.9/88.6 splits over her last five games played. Wilson dominated the first matchup against the Sun, but Connecticut’s defense smothered her in the paint in the second, limiting her to a 5/16 showing from the floor.

I also want to point out how essential pace could be in this game! The Sun have really leaned into Alyssa Thomas’ rip and run ability and thrive most when they get started on the break and touch the paint early. The same can be said of the Aces, and with more gumption, as they are second in the league in pace of play per Her Hoop Stats. When either team gets stops, forces turnovers, and pushes the odd advantages, they are at their best.

I would lean into Courtney Williams as the X-factor here.

 

As incredible as Connecticut’s array of stars are, Williams is the only player who can truly create for herself and others at a high level out of ball screens in the halfcourt. When Williams gets going with her pull-up jumper, the Sun hit another level of potency. When she goes through a cold stretch, however, the offense can really stagnate. What will happen again Aces?

August 7th Connecticut at Chicago: 1 pm Eastern

We absolutely loaded up on Connecticut Sun games over the back stretch of the season on National broadcasts, and I for one, am here for it! Alyssa Thomas is having a special season, really extrapolating on her playmaking ability as the quasi-lead guard for the Sun in a way I did not anticipate. I am getting as many views of her stellar year as I can.

The top-seeded Sky have won both prior matchups, although each game was won by single digits, one of the more compelling season series in the 2022 schedule. The way this Chicago team is humming right now is something to behold. The defense when dialed in is just about the best in basketball, with timely rotations, stunts, and aggression. The shooting has come around after a woeful start from outside as a team and they are easily the best collective passing roster in the league. The motion, cutting, and organic machinations of James Wade’s offense never cease to amaze me. They look primed for a deep postseason run.

I almost want to say Curt Miller is my X-factor… and I will!

During the Sky/Sun series in the playoffs, one which ended in a way few expected with the Sky advancing much was made of how minimized Jonquel Jones felt. Chicago has so much length and functional size that they can really take the oomph out of action.

That held true in the first matchup of the season as well, as Jones took only nine shots. While she bounced back strongly in the next game taking 23, I am still curious to see how Miller toys (or does not) with the offense.

As talented as the Sun are, things have just never quite felt right and consistent in the halfcourt. This game feels like a final fine-tuning against ghosts of the past and the present.

August 7th Las Vegas at Seattle: 3 pm Eastern

Aces/Storm is a matchup that is carried weight for a few seasons now, and this year is no different. The third of four total matchups (the last regular season game for each team is their final matchup on the 14th), this game could be huge in deciding the final playoff seeding.

The two teams stand one game apart in the standings at the time of writing, both still in contention for the one-seed, eyeing a late-season chance to topple one another. The Aces won their first matchup in the second game of the season and Seattle took their second matchup in late June. That game, one of the games of the year, was punctuated by a 16-4 run over the final seven minutes of play.

Styles make fights, and the style of Las Vegas and Seattle meshes incredibly well for remarkable contrast and friction. The Aces love to get out and run, operating out of their early offense. The Storm typically plays at a slower more methodical pace (although they’ve shown more wrinkles pushing with Gabby Williams of late) and lean into the league’s top-ranked defense.

The X-factor in this game for me… Dearica Hamby.

Hamby has had a  nice season, a deserving All-Star who is essential in keeping possessions alive and the offense in flow in the halfcourt. Hamby can and will shoot, but her accuracy has been up and down this season. As we saw in prior games, the Storm will be comfortable helping off her on the weak side and enacting their hard hedge active scheme. Can she make enough shots, attack off the catch with guile, and cut into and attack space just enough to make the defense think twice?

August 14th Minnesota at Connecticut: 1 pm Eastern

This is an easy headliner: This is Sylvia Fowles’ final regular season WNBA game and potentially her last entirely if Minnesota struggles down the stretch.

The season series between the Lynx and Sun is incredibly interesting because…they have yet to play one another…with a month left in the season…. they play each other three times in three weeks…chaos!

The Lynx have the league’s best offense over the last ten games, blitzing opposition. Rachel Banham has been gunning off the bench, shooting over 40% from deep on just shy of 6 attempts per game over that span. Jessica Shepard’s punch from the bench, moving back after Fowles’ return from injury, has been a boon. Powers has found a rhythm that alluded to her in the early season, getting to the line at an elite rate and shooting well from outside the arc and on pull-up twos. Moriah Jefferson has been excellent, stirring the offense initially and then playing off the ball and Kayla McBride has glued the offense with her connectivity.

The Lynx are the hottest team in basketball, 7-3 in their last ten games. It is Syl’s last ride, in her last regular season game, and the Lynx have found their groove headed into the final month of the season. It is only right that Fowles is the X-factor!

The Lynx lean into playing East/West, utilizing their playmakers as DHO operators, essential considering their lack of consistent downhill threats. With Fowles back, they have continued with that high post/elbow motion offense and her fit is seamless. In the most recent matchup with Chicago, her rolls from the perimeter exploited the gaps that Chicago so comfortably plays in with their length and speed. Fowles on the roll is much harder to stop than when she’s posted early. Connecticut and Chicago play different brands of defense: the Sun play with more size and have a true center, but the concept is the same. How will their defense hold up against Syl on the roll? Jefferson and Powers can pick apart weaker perimeter defenders with Fowles ball screens and her roll gravity can make things very interesting.

August 14th Chicago at Phoenix: 3 pm Eastern

FINALS REMATCH!!!

The Sky are undefeated this season against the Mercury (2-0) carrying over their winning ways from the WNBA Finals. Despite their record, this Mercury team has looked much more like a playoff team over the last month than I expected they would after the first month and a half.

Skylar Diggins-Smith has been an All-W level talent. Lineups with Brianna Turner at the five and Sophie Cunningham slotting at the four have been incredibly fruitful for the Mercury. The defense is still underwhelming, but it is better, and Turner is doing all in her power to keep them afloat, she is impressed playing the center spot. Cunningham is shooting the lights out of late, shooting 40% from deep on remarkable volume (7.8 attempts per game).

But this team is incredibly dependent on their shooting and lacks a constant rim pressure threat outside Diggins-Smith. Their action can still generate looks, but if the shots do not hit, the impact is not there on the defense, which sounds bland, but matters a great deal. If you are not making the defense think, the defense is not moving either.

Diamond DeShields has just about the best first step in the W, but her outside jumper has faltered this season. Teams routinely go under the ball screens she operates and negates much of what the action is supposed to provide: space. She was an X-factor for the Sky in the playoffs, and she will get the same chance to amplify the Mercury.

Playing against her former team, DeShields has an opportunity to really pop in the last game of the W’s regular season and generate open looks or attack a tilted defense. Can she hit a few pull-up twos or catch and shoot threes to force close-outs and open lanes?

The Sky love that aggressive scheme to stifle ball-handlers, but the Mercury tinkered with some small lineups to work against it. Notice how Cunningham ghosts (never truly sets it and fakes the action) the screen, mimicking the screening action, but drawing away the second defender in the trap, and giving DeShields a wide-open lane to carve up the paint. I am excited about this one.

Newly hired WNBA reporter Mark Schindler writes a column on WNBA.com throughout the season and can be reached on Twitter at @MG_Schindler. The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the WNBA or its clubs

 

 

Continue Reading