Playoff Power Rankings: Handicapping the Field

Brian Martin

It’s been more than four months since the 2016 WNBA season tipped off in May, but now the playoff field is set, with the top eight teams in the league ready for the first go-around with the new playoff format.

POWER RANKINGS ARCHIVE

The new postseason tournament is not traditional and neither are this week’s power rankings. With the first two rounds consisting of single-elimination games, the entire field will be cut in half in the span of just four games. Power rankings usually take into account how a team is playing over the course of an entire season, but now it really comes down to just predicting a single game between two teams.

Which teams are most likely to go on a championship run over the next month? Here is one writer’s opinion on how this field stands on the eve of the first round, taking into account first-round matchups, potential second-round and semifinal matchups, team trends, player injuries and availability and more.

Click here to view this week’s AP Power Poll

1. Minnesota Lynx

2016 Record: 28-6 (1st seed, byes until semifinals)

The Lynx are looking to make history by becoming the first team since the 2001-02 Sparks to win back-to-back titles and join the Houston Comets as the only team with four WNBA championships. They already made a bit of history, posting the best single-season record in franchise history. The Lynx have not missed a beat since sending nearly their entire starting lineup plus their head coach to Rio for the Olympics. Since play resumed, the Lynx went a league-best 7-2 to close the season and enter the 2016 playoffs as the title favorites.

2. Los Angeles Sparks

2016 Record: 26-8 (2nd seed, byes until semifinals)

The Sparks opened the season with 20 wins in their first 21 games, then went just 6-7 in the final third of the season. After losing two of their final three games before the break, the Sparks had their top players together during the season’s month-long hiatus, but did not come back to the court as sharp as they were before the hiatus. L.A. lost five of its first eight games out of the break before closing the regular season with back-to-back wins. Now the Sparks enter another extended break, as they have a double-bye and will not play again until Sept. 28. How will they respond this time around?

3. New York Liberty

2016 Record: 21-13 (3rd seed, first-round bye)

New York took a page out of L.A.’s book with its play coming out of the Olympic break. The Liberty went just 3-5 in their final eight games after play resumed and enter the playoffs riding a three-game losing streak. However, the Liberty led the East all season long to hold that No. 3 spot behind the two Western juggernauts. That gives the Liberty a first-round bye and a home date with the lowest seed that advances out of the first round for a single-elimination, second-round matchup. The Liberty holds a 2-1 season series win over each of the bottom three seeds (Atlanta, Seattle and Phoenix) that they could face this weekend.

4. Seattle Storm

2016 Record: 16-18 (7th seed)

Here is where things get a bit interesting, as the seventh-seeded Storm leap to a top-four power ranking. There are four factors that play into this decision: 1) Seattle enters the playoffs as the hottest team outside of Minnesota, going 7-3 since the Olympic break; 2) Seattle won the season series with its first-round opponent, Atlanta, a team that may also be playing without one of its best players (Tiffany Hayes) due to suspension; 3) In a new playoff format that resembles the NCAA tournament, should anyone bet against Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird? 4) If the Storm advance to the second round, they will face either New York (ranked above them in the power rankings) or Chicago (who will most likely be without the reigning MVP Elena Delle Donne).

5. Phoenix Mercury

2016 Record: 16-18 (8th seed)

Another lower seed makes a jump, this time predicated on favoring the Mercury to knock off the Fever in Indianapolis in the first round just as they did two weeks ago in the last matchup between these two teams. There has been no team more difficult to project in the power rankings this season than the Mercury, as this talent-rich team predicted by the league’s GMs to win the Finals, was the last team to clinch a playoff berth in the closing days of the regular season. With the season hanging in the balance of a single game, there are few players I trust more than Diana Taurasi to deliver.

6. Chicago Sky

2016 Record: 18-16 (4th seed, first round bye)

Chicago’s playoff hopes took a major blow last week when it was announced that reigning MVP Elena Delle Donne would undergo thumb surgery and be out indefinitely. That surgery took place one week ago, and unless she heals very quickly, the Sky will most likely be without her for their second-round matchup on Saturday against the higher seed of the two teams that advance out of the first round. Since she suffered the injury on Sept. 7, the Sky went 3-2 to close out the regular season and hold onto the No. 4 seed to earn their first-round bye. Cappie Pondexter has picked up the scoring slack, averaging 19.4 points (seven more than her season average) over the last five games in Delle Donne’s absence. But if EDD is unable to return, how far can the Sky go without her?

7. Indiana Fever

2016 Record: 17-17 (5th seed)

If there is any team that can defy the odds and get hot during the playoffs, it’s the Indiana Fever. Look back to last season, when the No. 3 seed in the East advanced all the way to the Finals and pushed the eventual champion Lynx to five games. With the legendary career of Tamika Catchings coming to an end after this postseason run, the Fever have to be a sentimental favorite to make another push for the Finals and the fairy tale ending for No. 24. However, the first round pits Indiana against Phoenix and while the Fever won the season series, the Mercury have the most recent win — a 14-point victory in Indianapolis after the Olympic break.

8. Atlanta Dream

2016 Record: 17-17 (6th seed)

The Dream enter the playoffs having lost three of their final four games and going just 4-5 since the Olympic break, including a loss to their first round opponent, the Seattle Storm. To make matters worse, the Dream may have to play that single-elimination game without their second-leading scorer, Tiffany Hayes, after she picked up her seventh technical foul — and the automatic suspension that comes with it — in Atlanta’s regular season finale. Unless the league decides to rescind the technical upon review, the Dream won’t have the 15.0 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists from their starting guard. Of course, the Dream still have Angel McCoughtry (who had her own technical foul suspension earlier this month) and her ability to light up the scoreboard in the playoffs; she owns three of the top six single-game scoring performances in playoff history.


ASSOCIATED PRESS POWER POLL

1. Minnesota
2. Los Angeles
3. New York
4. Chicago
5. Atlanta
6. Indiana
7. Seattle
8. Phoenix
9. Connecticut
10. Washington
11. Dallas
12. San Antonio

Click here to view the full rankings on AP.org