Week 13 Power Rankings: Time For Some Answers

Brian Martin

Note: WNBA.com’s Power Rankings, released every Tuesday during the season, are the opinion of this writer and do not reflect the views of the WNBA or its clubs.

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The 2016 WNBA regular season ends in 12 days and there are still plenty of questions to be answered during that short amount of time. First, let’s address the big picture questions about the playoff picture and then we’ll get into individual team questions in the rankings.

1. Who grabs the top seed — Minnesota or Los Angeles?

There is no question that the Lynx and Sparks will finish as the top two seeds and earn double-byes in the new playoff format. The question is who will be No. 1 and who will be No. 2 between them. Tuesday’s game in Los Angeles (10 PM ET, ESPN 2) will play a huge role in giving us an answer. The teams enter their third and final regular season matchup with identical 24-5 records and having split the first two games of the season series. Tonight’s winner not only picks up a game in the standings, but also grabs the all-important tiebreaker if these two teams meet in the playoffs — and with the new playoff format, these two Western Conference powers could meet in the Finals.

2. Who grabs the rest of the playoff spots?

The Sparks, Lynx and Liberty have already punched their playoff tickets, while San Antonio is officially out and Dallas is all but mathematically eliminated as the losses continue to mount for the Wings. That leaves seven teams vying for the final five playoff spots, led by the Chicago Sky, who are riding a league-best four-game winning streak. Keep in mind that the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds earn first round byes and get to avoid one of the single-elimination rounds, so the battle to secure one of those two spots should be fierce in the next two weeks.

On to the rankings…

Click here to view this week’s AP Power Poll

1. Minnesota Lynx

Last Week: 1
2016 Record: 24-5 (clinched playoff berth)
OffRtg: 107.2 (3); DefRtg: 95.3 (1); NetRtg: 11.9 (1)

The Lynx are the only team to beat the Sparks in Los Angeles this season. Can they can do it again and gain a huge advantage in the race for the No. 1 overall seed?

2. Los Angeles Sparks

Last Week: 2
2016 Record: 24-5 (clinched playoff berth)
OffRtg: 108.1 (1); DefRtg: 96.6 (2); NetRtg: 11.5 (2)

Have the Sparks broken out of their Olympic break funk? They lost two of three heading into the break and their first two after the break to pick up four losses in five games after having only lost once in their first 22 games. Since their back-to-back losses out of the break, the Sparks have won three straight, but they weren’t the most impressive victories — all came by single digits and two came against the bottom two teams in the league — Dallas and San Antonio. How will they respond against the Lynx?

3. New York Liberty

Last Week: 3
2016 Record: 20-9 (clinched playoff berth)
OffRtg: 101.3 (8); DefRtg: 97.9 (3); NetRtg: 3.4 (3)

Can Tina Charles join some elite company by averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds for the season? Charles ranks second in scoring (a career-high 21.1 ppg) and leads the league in rebounding (9.9 rpg). If she can up her rebounds ever so slightly and average a 20-10, she would be just the third player to do so over a full season, joining Sylvia Fowles (20.0 ppg, 10.2 rpg) in 2011 and Chamique Holdsclaw (20.5 ppg, 10.9 rpg) in 2003.

4. Chicago Sky

Last Week: 5
2016 Record: 15-13
OffRtg: 107.3 (2); DefRtg: 105.4 (11); NetRtg: 1.9 (4)

Have the Sky finally found some consistency? Early this season, the Sky was on a bit of a see-saw, swinging up and down between winning streaks and losing streaks — four straight losses followed by four straight wins, followed by five losses in six games. However, the Sky won three of their final four games heading into the Olympic break and have not lost in four games since play resumed on Aug. 26. Can Chicago maintain this momentum over its final six games?

5. Atlanta Dream

Last Week: 4
2016 Record: 14-14
OffRtg: 99.7 (11); DefRtg: 102.5 (4); NetRtg: -2.8 (8)

Can Atlanta hold its spot? The Dream have lost two of its three games coming out of the Olympic break and will face a challenging schedule down the stretch that includes a pair of games against Phoenix in the next week as both teams look to establish playoff position. The Dream will also have to contend with the league-leading Sparks (Thursday) and Lynx (regular season finale on Sept. 17) as they look to hold their playoff position.

6. Phoenix Mercury

Last Week: 6
2016 Record: 13-16
OffRtg: 104.2 (4); DefRtg: 104.6 (9); NetRtg: -0.4 (5)

Can a team predicted to win the title somehow miss the playoffs? The story of the Mercury’s season has centered around when this talent-rich team would play up to the lofty expectations placed upon them in the preseason. Phoenix came out of the Olympic break strong with three straight wins that featured some of their best defense of the season and all signs pointing toward the Mercury’s playoff run. However, that was followed by two losses and a loose hold on the No. 7 seed with five games to play and team nipping at their heels.

7. Indiana Fever

Last Week: 7
2016 Record: 13-15
OffRtg: 101.6 (7); DefRtg: 103.8 (6); NetRtg: -2.1 (7)

Will the Tamika farewell tour include a playoff appearance? The Fever have lost three of their four games coming out of the Olympic break and find themselves in the middle of the pack fighting for one of the final five playoff spots. Can the Fever get back on track against the six-win Stars on Tuesday in San Antonio before a four-game stretch against teams in the playoff hunt begins on Friday against Chicago?

8. Seattle Storm

Last Week: 8
2016 Record: 12-17
OffRtg: 103.5 (5); DefRtg: 104.2 (8); NetRtg: -0.7 (6)

Can the Storm hold onto the eighth and final playoff spot? With Sunday’s win over Atlanta, Seattle kept its grip on the final playoff berth as they improved to 12-17 on the season thanks to big games from Olympians Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart. Speaking of Stewart — the runaway favorite for Rookie of the Year — she’s had plenty of success in single-elimination tournaments over the past four years. Can she replicate that success in the WNBA playoffs, with the first two rounds being single elimination before the best-of-five semifinals and Finals?

9. Connecticut Sun

Last Week: 9
2016 Record: 11-18
OffRtg: 100.3 (10); DefRtg: 103.3 (5); NetRtg: -3.0 (9)

Can the Sun rise past two teams? Connecticut has won three of its five games coming out of the Olympic break to stay in playoff contention with five games to play. However, being a game back in the loss column and without a tiebreaker over either of the two teams directly ahead of them — Seattle won 2-1 while Washington leads 2-0 with one game to play — the Sun face a tough road to a playoff berth.

10. Washington Mystics

Last Week: 10
2016 Record: 11-17
OffRtg: 101.2 (9); DefRtg: 104.6 (10); NetRtg: -3.4 (10)

Can the Mystics win at home? Washington is tied with San Antonio for the worst home record in the league (4-9, .308) and has four of its final six games at the Verizon Center as the Mystics try to climb back into the playoff picture. They got a much-needed win over the struggling Wings on Sunday, but now face playoff contenders the rest of the way. Keep an eye on Friday’s matchup with Seattle, the current No. 8 seed. The Mystics and Storm are tied in the loss column (17) and have split their first two games, so the winner of this rubber match gets the much-needed tiebreaker should they finish with equal records.

11. Dallas Wings

Last Week: 11
2016 Record: 9-21
OffRtg: 102.0 (6); DefRtg: 107.8 (12); NetRtg: -5.7 (11)

Can the Wings get a W? The No. 11 seed in the power rankings just lost its 11th game in a row on Sunday at home against the Mystics despite a career day from rookie Aerial Powers (21 points, 10 rebounds) and 25 points from Skylar Diggins. While not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the Wings would need a ton of help to get back into the playoff picture with just four games to play. The Wings will look to snap their losing streak on Friday in San Antonio against the 6-22 Stars.

12. San Antonio Stars

Last Week: 12 (eliminated from playoffs)
2016 Record: 6-22
OffRtg: 92.9 (12); DefRtg: 103.9 (7); NetRtg: -11.0 (12)

Can the Stars pull an upset or two down the stretch? The Stars are the only team officially out of the playoffs, but face plenty of teams battling for position on the final two weeks. Can the Stars affect the playoff picture by pulling off an upset? It will be a tough task as the Stars have nearly a full team in street clothes on their bench due to injuries. Dan Hughes has six more games to coach and teach his young team how to win. The wins may not come this year, but the foundation for future wins can continue to be established now.


ASSOCIATED PRESS POWER POLL

1. Minnesota (13)
2. Los Angeles (1)
3. New York
4. Chicago
5. Atlanta
6. Phoenix
7. Indiana
8. Seattle
9. Connecticut
10. Washington
11. Dallas
12. San Antonio

Click here to view the full rankings on AP.org