Predictions, let’s remember, are just educated guesses based on the information you have at that time.

Would anyone have predicted, for example, that the Connecticut Sun would be 5-1 at this point? Maybe not. Based on the information we had going into the season, the Sun were:

• Playing without Alyssa Thomas, the franchise’s heart and soul player and tone setter on both ends of the floor.
• Looking to reintegrate Jonquel Jones, the star center who sat out the 2020 season in the bubble and hadn’t yet played with new centerpiece DeWanna Bonner.
• Opening the season with a difficult stretch that included two games against the experienced Phoenix Mercury, a game against preseason title favorite Las Vegas, and a game against defending champion Seattle Storm (who they will take on tonight).
• Playing stretches early without Jazmine Jones (who came to the team late) or Briann January (currently injured), the two pillars of the backcourt.

Yet here the Sun are tied for first in the WNBA standings at 5-1, with their only loss coming in OT to the defending champs, which shows that even the most educated guesses can’t cover every base – and that predictions will always give way to the unpredictable.

The Connecticut team that started 0-5 last season, who haven’t started this well since 2018, are on a roll.

What’s working for the Sun right now?

1. Rebounding
Connecticut is currently out-rebounding opponents by a margin of 14.4 rebounds a game and are pulling down nearly 12 offensive rebounds a game to lead the league. And when you consider that they have already done battle inside with the likes of Brittney Griner, Teaira McCowan, Liz Cambage, A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart, that’s awfully impressive. In fact, on Sunday, they put up a 44-26 rebounding margin over the loaded Aces, who have perhaps the best post tandem in the league.

2. Natisha Hiedeman
The third-year point guard, who began the season on a training camp contract, is an unexpectedly big part of Connecticut’s success thus far because of depth issues in the backcourt with Jazmine Jones and January. Hiedeman has been running the point since camp, and the Marquette product is making her mark early and staking out an early front-runner spot for Most Improved Player. Hiedeman averaged 4.9 points a game in her career before this season. She is currently averaging 12.7 points a game and has hit 15 3-pointers to spread the defense when she’s on the floor.

“She’s been asked to start more than expected,” Sun head coach Curt Miller said. “She’s been a leader from the beginning of camp and she’s coming into her own…She is really important to what we are doing.”

Natisha Hiedeman #2 of the Connecticut Sun celebrates during the game against the Indiana Fever.

3. Defense
This is the place where Connecticut plans to form its identity this season. The Sun are holding opponents to 39.1 field-goal shooting and just 31.1 percent from beyond the 3-point arc. Sunday against Las Vegas, Connecticut held the Aces to eight first-quarter points, the lowest quarter for the team since they moved to Las Vegas and dominated the defensive boards to limit Vegas’ offensive chances.

“We are just comfortable with who we are, having to win at the defensive end,” said Miller. “To win a game against one of the projected favorites, shooting 33 percent, proves that if you will defend and rebound, you can win on nights when your offense struggles.”

4. Ball distribution
With five players averaging double-figures scoring, the Sun are getting the job done in a number of ways in that category with “good distribution” being the goal, according to Curt Miller. That bodes well for continued success and the ability to absorb an off-game or an injury from any given player.  What stands out the most is their league leading 38.0 paint points per game. Nine of the 10 active players on the roster at this moment are averaging at least 10 minutes a game.

5. Meshing well
Any concern that it would take a while for Bonner and the 27-year-old Jones to mesh has turned out to be entirely unfounded and this is a team that’s already playing with mid-season confidence – and with a big win over Vegas – has to know it’s in position to beat any team in this league. Jones is hitting the peak of her career and playing like it early on with five straight double-doubles, including 28 points and 13 rebounds in their lone loss of the season to Seattle. Bonner, meanwhile, has scored at least 20 points in three of the first six games. Collectively, the Sun are showing toughness and grit.

“Las Vegas is a really talented team,” Miller said. “For us to get a road win, on our third game in five days, does a lot for our confidence down the line. It shows the growth and maturity of our team.”

Longtime WNBA reporter Michelle Smith writes a weekly column on WNBA.com throughout the season. The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the WNBA or its clubs.