The fates of professional basketball franchises are decided by ping-pong balls often, but this year’s WNBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm comes with an extra layer of anticipation.

Another superstar talent is on her way into the league, and only one team will be lucky enough to draft her.

Here’s what you need to know about Thursday night’s event in Bristol, Conn., which will air live on ESPN 2 during halftime of Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals (8 p.m. ET start):

MORE: Official WNBA Draft Lottery Release

What’s at Stake

Quite simply: Breanna Stewart.

Stewart is the type of talent franchises plan rebuilding efforts around. She’s won the national championship in each of her first three seasons at UConn, winning 110 of 114 games overall, and is the first women’s player ever to be named Final Four Most Outstanding Player three times.

The 6-foot-4 forward/center is viewed as a sure thing and a lock to be selected with the No. 1 overall pick in April’s 2016 WNBA Draft — by whichever team wins Thursday night’s lottery.

South Carolina guard Tiffany Mitchell and Stewart’s teammate, UConn guard Moriah Jefferson, round out the projected Top 3.

The New Format

As usual, Thursday’s drawing will feature the four teams that missed the playoffs this season. But this year’s lottery comes with a couple of changes:

1) The odds are based on the cumulative records of the lottery teams over the past two regular seasons. (They had previously been determined just by record in the most recent season.)

2) Two teams will be drawn instead of three. The two lottery teams that do not come up will select in the inverse order of their two-year cumulative record. Thus, the lottery team with the worst two-year cumulative record is guaranteed to pick no later than third.

MORE: Full Release on This Year’s Format

The Odds

The History

WNBA general managers have reason to bite their nails even harder than their NBA counterparts on Lottery night. The top draft picks hold even more value in the women’s game, considering how past elite talents and their lucky teams have fared — especially in recent years.

Six of the past seven players selected first overall have gone on to win Rookie of the Year, and only three players drafted outside of the top four have ever won the award. Over that span, the team with the No. 1 pick has improved its record by an average of eight wins the following season.

That group includes Candace Parker (2008) and Maya Moore (2011), who won MVP as rookies. Moore went on to lead the Minnesota Lynx to the WNBA title during her rookie season.

As for this year’s crop of teams:

• The Storm have enjoyed the most lottery fortune. Seattle has picked No. 1 each of the three times it has finished with the worst record in the west, including in 2001 and ’02, when they landed Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird, respectively.

• This is just the second time the Stars have finished the the worst record in the league. San Antonio has never owned the No. 1 pick. The team’s highest pick ever, No. 2 in 2007, turned into Becky Hammon via trade, while current star Kayla McBride is the highest draft pick the Stars have ever kept (No. 3 in 2014).

• The Sun have made the top pick twice: In 2010, despite finishing tied for the league’s fifth-worst record (16-18), they won the lottery and selected UConn star Tina Charles; in 2014, as the league’s last-place team, they nabbed Stanford forward and eventual WNBA Rookie of the Year Chiney Ogwumike.

• This is the first time the Dream have missed the playoffs since their first year in existence (2008). Following that 4-30 season, they chose Louisville’s Angel McCoughtry with the No. 1 pick; the explosive guard remains their centerpiece, a four-time All-Star who has led the team to three WNBA Finals.

The Rest of the First Round