WNBA Draft Lottery Primer: What You Need to Know Heading into Wednesday

Brian Kotloff

While four teams vie for a spot in the WNBA Finals, four other teams will be crossing their fingers in hopes of landing a championship building block of their own.

The 2017 WNBA Draft Lottery will air live on ESPN 2 at halftime of Game 1 of the Semifinals between the Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx. The game tips at 8 PM ET.

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The Format

The WNBA announced changes to the lottery format last season, resulting in the Seattle Storm landing franchise player Breanna Stewart with the No. 1 pick. The same format will be used this year to shake up a draft that is not expected to yield such a transformative player.

Wednesday’s drawing features the four teams that did not qualify for the postseason — though the Connecticut Sun owe their pick to the Los Angeles Sparks via a trade in the 2016 offseason. The odds are based on the cumulative records of the lottery teams over the past two regular seasons. (They had previously been determined just by record in the most recent season.)

Two teams will be drawn during the lottery. The two teams that do not come up will select in the inverse order of their two-year cumulative record. Thus, the lottery team with the worst two-year cumulative record is guaranteed to pick no later than third.

MORE: Full Release on This Year’s Format

The Odds

As they get ready to play Game 1 of their semifinals series with the Chicago Sky, the Sparks will turn some of their attention to the lottery. They own the Sun’s first-round pick by virtue of a trade during WNBA Draft 2016:

  • Sparks acquired: Chelsea Gray, 15th & 23rd picks in 2016 Draft, Sun’s first-round pick in 2017 Draft
  • Sun acquired: 17th pick in 2016 Draft, rights to No. 6 pick Jonquel Jones

 

2017 WNBA Draft Lottery Odds
Team Two-Year Record Chance of No. 1 Pick
San Antonio Stars 15-53 44.2%
Dallas Wings 29-39 22.7%
Los Angeles Sparks (via Connecticut Sun) 29-39 22.7%
Washington Mystics 31-37 10.4%

 

The Top Prospects

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The 2016-17 NCAA season will begin with no clear-cut favorite to be selected with the WNBA’s top overall pick come April. This year’s crop of talented seniors includes Baylor’s Nina Davis and Alexis Jones, South Carolina’s Alaina Coates, Washington’s Kelsey Plum (above), Rutgers’ Tyler Scaife and Maryland’s Shatori Walker-Kimbrough.

The History

Breanna Stewart was just the latest in a long line of No. 1 overall picks who change the fortunes of a franchise. In fact, assuming she wins the 2016 award, 11 of the 20 players selected No. 1 will have earned Rookie of the Year honors — including eight of the past nine. Only three players picked outside of the top four have ever won the award.

More No. 1 pick facts:

  • No. 1 picks have captured 10 of the 19 MVP awards (which will likely become 11 of 20 with Nneka Ogwumike or Tina Charles winning this year)
  • Seven of the 20 have won a title with the team that drafted them.
  • Over the last nine seasons, the team with the No. 1 overall pick has improved its record by an average of 6.8 wins.
Team Win Totals Before & After No. 1 Pick
Year Team No. 1 Pick Previous Year’s Record Next Year’s Record Change in Win Total Postseason
2008 Los Angeles Sparks Candace Parker 10-24 20-14 +10 Conference Finals
2009 Atlanta Dream Angel McCoughtry 4-30 18-16 +14 Conference Semifinals
2010 Connecticut Sun Tina Charles 16-18 17-17 +1 Did not qualify
2011 Minnesota Lynx Maya Moore 13-21 27-7 +8 Won Finals
2012 Los Angeles Sparks Nneka Ogwumike 15-19 24-10 +9 Conference Finals
2013 Phoenix Mercury Brittney Griner 7-27 19-15 +12 Conference Finals
2014 Connecticut Sun Chiney Ogwumike 10-24 13-21 +3 Did not qualify
2015 Seattle Storm Jewell Loyd 12-22 10-24 -2 Did not qualify
2016 Seattle Storm Breanna Stewart 10-24 16-18 +6 First Round

More on this year’s lottery crop:

  • This is the third time the Stars have finished the the worst record in the league. San Antonio has never owned the No. 1 pick. The team has selected No. 2 twice, first trading the pick in the deal for Becky Hammon in 2007, then landing current point guard Moriah Jefferson this past season. Before Jefferson, backcourt partner Kayla McBride (No. 3 in 2014) was the highest pick the Stars had kept.
  • Despite finishing with the league’s worst record three times — and tied for last twice — the Dallas Wings franchise (formerly the Detroit and Tulsa Shock) has never owned the No. 1 pick. Current leaders Odyssey Sims and Skylar Diggins were acquired with the No. 2 and 3 picks in 2014 and 2013, respectively.
  • The Sparks‘ good fortune in the 2011 lottery — when they had the lowest odds but won the top pick — led them to Nneka Ogwumike, who has paired with 2008 No. 1 pick Candace Parker to lead L.A. back to prominence. The 2007 pre-Parker season was the only time they’ve finished at the bottom of the league.
  • In 2012, the Mystics held the best chances to land the No. 1 pick in a draft that featured the “Three to See” — Brittney Griner, Elena Delle Donne and Skylar Diggins. They fell to fourth. Other near-misses include 2002, when they drafted third after Sue Bird and Swin Cash were selected, and 2003, when they dropped to second after the Mercury took Penny Taylor. However, their last-place finish during their first season as a franchise (1998) yielded Chamique Holdsclaw.

The Rest of the First Round

Team Record
5. Phoenix Mercury 16-18
6. Seattle Storm 16-18
7. Atlanta Dream 17-17
8. Indiana Fever 17-17
9. Chicago Sky 18-16
10. Dallas Wings (from New York) 21-13
11. Dallas Wings (from Los Angeles) 26-8
12. Minnesota Lynx 28-6