The 2023 WNBA Playoffs presented by Google resume Sunday afternoon in Brooklyn with the No. 2 seed New York Liberty hosting the No. 3 seed Connecticut Sun at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN, followed by the No. 1 seed Las Vegas Aces hosting the No. 4 seed Dallas Wings at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

The first round went chalk, with the top four seeds all advancing, with three of the series ending in two-game sweeps. But the semifinals will bring a new level of competition as the four remaining teams were the only four to post winning records during the regular season and have all beaten one another with one notable exception that we’ll delve into shortly.

We debuted our playoff confidence rankings in the first round and now brought them back for the semifinals to get ready for these two series that will determine which two teams will compete for the 2023 WNBA championship.

A quick reminder on how the confidence rankings work; this exercise is similar to a confidence pool, where you assign more points to the team you have the most confidence in winning, and fewer points to the team you have the least confidence in winning. Of the final four teams in the playoffs, which teams evoke the most confidence that they’ll advance to the Finals?

Before we unveil the rankings, here is a look at the schedule for each matchup.

Semifinals Matchups

(1) Las Vegas Aces vs. (4) Dallas Wings

• Game 1: Wings at Aces– Sunday, Sept 24, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN2
• Game 2: Wings at Aces — Tuesday, Sept 26, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
• Game 3: Aces at Wings — Friday, Sept 29, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
• Game 4: Aces at Wings — Sunday, Oct 1, Time & TV TBD (If Necessary)
• Game 5: Wings at Aces — Tuesday, Oct 3, Time TBD, ESPNU/NBA TV (If Necessary)
• Season Series: Aces 3, Wings 1 (Aces +38)
• Team Leaders: Aces vs. Wings | Wings vs. Aces

(2) New York Liberty vs. (3) Connecticut Sun

• Game 1: Sun at Liberty– Sunday, Sept 24, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN
• Game 2: Sun at Liberty — Tuesday, Sept 26, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
• Game 3: Liberty at Sun — Friday, Sept 29, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
• Game 4: Liberty at Sun — Sunday, Oct 1, 3 p.m. ET, ABC (If Necessary)
• Game 5: Sun at Liberty — Tuesday, Oct 3, Time TBD, ESPNU/NBA TV (If Necessary)
• Season Series: Liberty 4, Sun 0 (Liberty +60)
• Team Leaders: Liberty vs. Sun | Sun vs. Liberty

Semifinals Confidence Rankings

1. Las Vegas Aces (4 points)

 The Aces’ title defense got off to a strong start as they swept the No. 8 seed Sky, outscoring Chicago by a total of 50 points in their two wins and never trailing over the 80 minutes of play. For the second-straight series Las Vegas will face the lowest-seed remaining, the No. 4 Dallas Wings, a team the Aces beat 3-1 in their season series.

Las Vegas and Dallas split home-and-home sets on July 5 and 7, with the two games decided by a total of nine points. But in their final two meetings of the season, the Aces scored 104 points in each and earned wins by 13 and 20 points, respectively. Las Vegas has been unbeatable when their offense gets rolling like that – they are 31-0 this season when scoring more than 85 points, compared to 3-6 when being held to 85 points or less.

In four games against Dallas this season, the Aces shot 46.6% from 3-point range as a team — averaging 12 3s on just under 26 attempts per game – that is not only the highest 3-point percentage Las Vegas shot against any opponent, it is the highest percentage allowed by Dallas against any opponent this season.

Kelsey Plum led the Aces in scoring at 23 points per game against Dallas, splashing nearly four 3-pointers on 47.8% shooting and dishing out 5.7 assists while appearing in three of the four games. A’ja Wilson – who was named Kia Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight season on Friday – averaged 22.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks in four games against the Wings this season.

Chelsea Gray – who had one of the most efficient shooting playoff runs in WNBA history last season – averaged 19.5 points on 54 FG%, 52.4 3P%, 92.3 FT% shooting splits and dished out 5.5 dimes per game against the Wings. Fellow All-Star guard Jackie Young added 17.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. Meanwhile, Candace Parker, who has been out since that early July two-game set with the Wings, remains sidelined with a foot injury.

The Wings bring a scoring machine in Arike Ogunbowale, a do-it-all forward in Kia Most Improved Player Satou Sabally, and plenty of size on their frontline – Teaira McCowan and Kalani Brown each stand 6-foot-7, Awak Kuier is 6-foot-6 and former Defensive Player of the Year Natasha Howard plays bigger than her 6-foot-2 frame – to try to contend with Wilson.

Dallas may have been one of the five teams this season to beat Las Vegas, but it is hard to see the Wings beating the Aces three times in five games, which gives the Aces our top confidence ranking to advance to the Finals and continue their title defense, as they stand just six wins away from becoming the first team since the 2001-02 Los Angeles Sparks to repeat.

2. New York Liberty (3 points)

New York is coming off a competitive first-round challenge from Washington, as the Liberty needed overtime in Game 2 to complete the sweep and advance to the semifinals for the first time since 2015.

The balance of New York’s attack against the Mystics was impressive as four players averaged between 18.5 and 20 points per game: Sabrina Ionescu (20 ppg on 47.4% 3-point shooting), Jonquel Jones (19.5 ppg on 61.9% shooting, 13 rpg), Betnijah Laney (19 ppg, 53.1% shooting) and Stewart (18.5 ppg on 6 FGM and 6 FTM per game). New York didn’t need scoring from Courtney Vandersloot (7.5 ppg) as she orchestrated the offense with a team-high eight dimes per game.

While New York had split its season series with Washington (2-2) ahead of their first-round matchup, the Liberty swept Connecticut (4-0) throughout this season, with two games decided by eight points or less and the other two games by 16 points or more. Stewart led the way for the Liberty against the Sun, leading the team in points (20.8 ppg), rebounds (9.3 rpg), and steals (2.5 spg) in the matchup.

Jonquel Jones will be a focal point in this series from both an on-court and storyline perspective, as she left the Sun to join the Liberty in the offseason after playing the first six seasons of her career – and winning 2021 MVP honors – with Connecticut.

Jones got off to a slow start in New York as she played her way back from an offseason foot injury, but has been back to her dominant self recently, including an impressive showing in the first round against Washington, capping things off with a clutch offensive rebound and free throws set send Game 2 to overtime and avoid a winner-take-all Game 3 in D.C. Jones averaged 13 points and nearly nine rebounds in four games against her former squad in the regular season.

Ionescu, who averaged a team-high 20 points in the first round, was unable to get her shot going in three games against the Sun this season. She shot just 33.3% from the field (her second-lowest percentage against any opponent) and 31.6% from 3-point range (her lowest percentage against any opponent) as she averaged 13.7 points. Considering the Liberty swept the Sun with Sabrina struggling with her shot if she shoots it as she did in the first round, the Liberty will be in a great position to rack up points and advance.

3. Dallas Wings (2 points)

The Wings advanced past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since relocating to Dallas back in 2016. We have to go back two cities and another seven years to find the franchise’s last appearance in the semifinals – the 2009 Detroit Shock lost to Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals.

After sweeping Atlanta in the first round, Dallas now faces top-seeded Las Vegas in the semifinals as the Wings look to make it back to the WNBA Finals for the first time since 2008 when the Shock won their third title in six seasons.

In their two-game series with the Dream, the Wings were led by their All-Star duo of Arike Ogunbowale (22 ppg, 7 apg, 2 spg) and Satou Sabally (22.5 ppg, 5 apg, 2.5 spg) as they combined for nearly 45 points per game, while Teaira McCowan averaged a massive double-double with 14.5 points and 15 boards per game. However, when we look at the season series against the Aces, we see very different numbers for the All-Stars.

Ogunbowale struggled to score against Las Vegas this season, averaging just 14.8 points per game (her lowest output against any opponent this season) as she shot just 33.3% from the field, 27.6% from 3-point range and 25% from the foul line on just four attempts in four games. In total, three of Arike’s eight lowest-scoring games of the season came against Las Vegas. Sabally averaged 14.8 points and 4.3 rebounds against the Aces – numbers that will need to rise if Dallas hopes to pull off the upset.

Natasha Howard led the Wings in scoring against the Aces this season, averaging 17.8 points and 9.8 rebounds over four games, while McCowan also nearly averaged a double-double at 13.3 points and 9.8 boards while shooting 58.5% from the field. The Wings will need more of this production from their bigs to help offset the contributions of Wilson and also get Ogunbowale and Sabally back to being 20 ppg scorers if they hope to keep pace with Vega’s high-powered offense.

The Wings (13.1 ppg) and Aces (12.8) finished as the top two teams in fast break points during the regular season, and also both ranked in the top three in pace at around 82 possessions per 40 minutes. The Wings held a 50-43 edge in fast break points during the regular season, and will likely need to increase that margin if they hope to pull off the upset. Two other key areas to watch for the Wings: they outscored the Aces 160-122 in points in the paint and 56-32 on second-chance points during the regular season.

4. Connecticut Sun (1 point)

The Sun are the only team in the semifinals that needed the full three games to advance out of the first round, as they eliminated the Lynx in Minnesota in a win-or-go-home Game 3. With the season on the line, the Sun never trailed as they got a pair of 25-10 games from their All-Stars Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.

Thomas racked up 28 points, 12 assists, six rebounds, and a steal as the triple-double machine stuffed the stat sheet like she has on a routine basis this season. Bonner added 25 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, three blocks, three 3-pointers and a steal. Tyasha Harris also delivered a big game off the bench as she scored 18 points in 20 minutes and sank four of her six 3-point attempts.

If Connecticut hopes to return to the Finals for a second straight season – and the third time in five seasons as they continue to pursue their first WNBA title – they will need to do something they haven’t been able to accomplish all season: beat the New York Liberty.

Connecticut is 0-4 against New York this season, losing by an average of 15 points. The Sun will need marked improvement on both sides of the ball if they hope to pull off the upset and return to the Finals. Connecticut averaged just 73.5 points per game in their four games against the Liberty. That was not only their lowest scoring average against any opponent (by 4.5 ppg), but it was also more than nine points below their season average (82.7 ppg).

Bonner led the Sun in scoring against New York at 16.3 points per game and shot 44% from 3-point range. But Thomas was held to just 11.5 points per game – her lowest average against any opponent – as the Liberty frontline of Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart have been able to stifle The Engine’s offense. Thomas is not a traditional 20 points per game scorer, and her impact on the game is felt far beyond her scoring, but the Sun will have to get more offense out of Thomas if they hope to keep pace with New York.

Connecticut will also need contributions from up and down the roster to complement Bonner and Thomas. DiJonai Carrington appeared in two of the four games and averaged 11.5 points on 73% shooting in just 13 minutes per game. Can she replicate that production in the playoffs and potentially get more minutes? Tiffany Hayes also averaged 11.5 ppg against New York, can she improve on that mark in her first semifinal action since 2018 with Atlanta? And can Harris continue to be an outside threat and help open the floor for the Sun?

Defensively, the Sun allowed the Liberty to average 88.5 points per game, their second-highest mark allowed, just slightly behind the 89.7 allowed to Las Vegas. The 88.5 ppg allowed to New York was nearly 10 points more than their season average (79 ppg allowed).

The Sun have a tall task in front of them, but if there is anything we’ve learned over the past few years, it is don’t count them out as the Sun thrive when they feel disrespected. Anchored by Thomas, who is having an MVP-caliber season, the Sun will be ready to battle and try to not just get one win over the Liberty, but three.

Longtime WNBA reporter Brian Martin writes articles on WNBA.com throughout the season. The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the WNBA or its clubs.