What To Watch For: USA vs. France

Jack Maloney

On Thursday evening at 6:00 PM EST, the U.S. Women’s National Team will take on France for the right to advance to the gold medal game in Rio. Here’s what to watch for in this all important semifinal matchup.

Impact Of Injuries

Days before the Olympics were set to begin, France’s veteran point guard, Celine Dumerc, was ruled out for the tournament. While Dumerc may no longer be quite the player she was back in 2012, when she won FIBA Europe Women’s Player of the Year award, losing your captain and floor general is never a good thing. Young Olivia Epoupa has stepped up and performed well in Rio, leading the team in scoring, but the injury moved everyone on the depth chart up a spot, and the effect of that will be felt most acutely against the U.S.

The Americans’ vaunted depth has been one of the stories of the Olympics, but it may be put to the test in the semifinals. Sue Bird left the quarterfinal matchup against Japan, and test results showed she suffered a knee capsule sprain. She is officially listed as day-to-day, and may still be available against France. But even if she plays, she won’t be at 100 percent, and point guard is the one position in which the U.S. is lacking.

Bird and Lindsay Whalen are the only true point guards on the roster, and while Whalen is one of the world’s best, she can’t play the whole game. If Bird can’t go on Thursday, it will likely be Seimone Augustus or Lindsay Whalen replacing her in the starting lineup, leaving the U.S. without a true ball handler among the starters.

France Attacking The Offensive Glass

The U.S. have the most talented frontline in the world, and have had no trouble out-rebounding each and every opponent by double digits so far in Rio.

But in France they will face a stiff test when it comes to cleaning the glass–especially on France’s end of the floor. The French are pulling down 14.3 offensive rebounds per game, tied for the best mark of any team in Rio. It’s true the French don’t have the size the Americans do–no one does, to be fair–but they make a commitment to attack the glass as a team.

Seven different players are averaging at least 4.5 rebounds a game in Rio, including the 5-foot-5 Olivia Epoupa, who is grabbing 4.8 a night.

Against France in the exhibition circuit prior to the Olympics, the U.S. won the rebounding battle by only 11. Despite the evident size advantage, the Americans will have to be cognizant of boxing out at every position to prevent France from grabbing extra possessions.

Offensive Edge Goes To The Americans

The offensive potential of the USAB Women was always expected to be exceptional, but it has turned out to be historic. They scored over 100 points in three straight games to open the tournament, becoming the first team in Olympic history to achieve that feat. The 121 points they scored against Senegal were the most points ever scored by American women in the Olympics. And with their 110 points against Japan, they matched the 1996 team with five 100-plus point performances in one Olympics. With two games remaining no matter what happens on Thursday, it seems a foregone conclusion that this bunch will break the ’96 squad’s mark.

Just as impressive as the amount of points this team is putting up, is how efficiently they’re getting the job done. Through the first six games in Rio, the team is shooting 59 percent from the field, and 45.9 percent from three-point land, each of which are well clear of the next best team.

Meanwhile, the French women have averaged just 68.8 points per game, nearly 40 less than the 105 the U.S. is putting up. The most points France has scored in one game in Rio were the 74 they dropped on Brazil during the group phase. Unless the French defense plays the game of their lives, the offense is going to have to step up in a large way if they want to hang with the Americans.

Can France Take Care Of The Ball?

In order for France to push the U.S. for all 40 minutes, they will absolutely have to take great care of the ball. Unfortunately, that’s been a problem for them thus far in Rio, as they’re averaging 18 turnovers, the third most of any team in the tournament.

Making that task especially difficult, is the fact that the United States’ defensive pressure has been unrelenting. They’ve forced 19.6 turnovers per game in Rio, as Angel McCoughtry and company have hounded ball handlers on the wing, and Brittney Griner and her band of bigs have swallowed up anyone trying to enter the paint.

With the Americans already boasting one of the best collections of offensive talent of all time, France cannot afford to give them easy baskets by coughing the ball up over and over again.

Extending A Legacy

The 2016 U.S. Women’s National team is the latest group to carry the legacy of excellence that has stretched back over 60 years since the 1953 team won the FIBA Women’s World Cup. In the Olympics, the women have of course won five straight gold medals, and claimed gold seven of the nine times they’ve taken part.

So far this team looks more than capable of extending that legacy to 2016, which would give them six-straight gold medals, joining the U.S. men’s basketball team (1936-68) and the Indian men’s field hockey team (1928-56) as the only team sports to win six straight Olympic gold medals.

First, of course, they’ll have to get past France. Which, judging by the first six games, shouldn’t be too much of a problem.