Prior to the tip-off to the Commissioner’s Cup, I wrote that this stretch of games typically revealed which teams we should expect to see make deep runs in the postseason, and which teams could even potentially make it to the WNBA Finals. 

We’ve seen that in recent seasons, with the Minnesota Lynx making a deep run in 2025 following a Commissioner’s Cup championship game appearance, with the New York Liberty and Lynx clashing on Long Island in 2024, just to meet again in the Finals, and with the Liberty and Las Vegas Aces duking it out in 2023, which was just a warm-up to their impending Finals series against one another. 

We’re seeing that same formula be tested this year, with the Liberty and Aces headed to the championship game following a long stretch of Cup games throughout June. Both teams have been red-hot for the month, which could be because of the extra motivation added by the Cup and its incentives, or simply because these are two teams constructed to contend now. 

There was plenty to take away from this chunk of June contests that meant a little more than a regular season stretch, and we’ll be diving into five main points drawn from this stretch of the year. 

Stats were pulled prior to June 18 from the WNBA.com stats page.

We’re Doing This Again

A’ja Wilson #22 of the Las Vegas Aces and Breanna Stewart #30 of the New York Liberty

No, you’re not reading a headline from 2023 — the Liberty and Aces are clashing, again, in the Commissioner’s Cup Championship. It feels impossible to have underestimated either teams’ ability to turn things up a notch this month, but to be fair, they had some legitimate competition from the Atlanta Dream and Lynx, respectively. 

Despite injuries, New York is suddenly back atop the Eastern Conference with an undefeated stretch during Cup games (6-0). Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones have been steadying forces for the starting lineup, while Satou Sabally has found her groove off the bench for the team. Convincing victories over the Dream and Indiana Fever have landed New York as the host of this year’s Western Conference Cup representative, the Aces. 

Las Vegas has been on the opposite spectrum to begin the year. A’ja Wilson is once again piecing together another MVP-caliber season, and guards Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray have held down their offense following a slight slump from Young to start the season. Toppling this year’s Lynx squad during Cup play was the kind of win that went to show that they’re still the team to beat in the league. 

Las Vegas and New York have not played against one another this season. This is going to be a battle of the frontcourts and the benches, with the Aces guard room a ton more experienced than the Liberty’s at the moment, barring Sabrina Ionescu, of course. This game could live and die at the three point line if Wilson-Na’Lyssa Smith and Stewart-Jones are contained. 

Dream on Cusp of Finals Run 

While the Liberty, Lynx, and Aces have been unbelievably impressive to begin this season, the Atlanta Dream have felt like a bit of an afterthought. This, despite much improved play from Rhyne Howard, consistently great play from Allisha Gray, and an obviously wonderful fit for Angel Reese in head coach Karl Smesko’s system. 

This, coupled with a defensive stalwart like Nia Coffey in tow and a very solid rookie in Madina Okot, has bolstered the Dream from just a postseason contender to one you have to worry about getting into the Finals, if you’re any of the three teams mentioned at the start of this section. 

Over the month of June, Atlanta has averaged 90.8 points per game (4th), 35.1 percent from three point range (5th), and they carry an 11.9 net rating along with a 104 defensive rating. Unfortunately, they couldn’t get a win over the Liberty for some cushioning in the Eastern Conference for the Cup, but they’re clearly beginning to figure things out on the offensive end. 

Valkyries Continue Shining Behind Two-Way Stars

Gabby Williams #1 of the Golden State Valkyries

Gabby Williams and Veronica Burton have not gotten enough love this season for their two-way dominance for Golden State. Williams is averaging nearly two steals per game, while both she and Burton are hitting threes at an above average clip at the same time. However, with the same fate as Atlanta – unable to defeat the Lynx or Aces in key Cup matchups – they lost the opportunity to represent the Western Conference without very wacky results falling in their favor. But, fans in “Balhalla” have to feel good about how well Williams has settled into her role for the Valkyries, as they continue to play methodical basketball with Burton controlling the floor. 

Their lack of consistent rebounding and therefore second chance scoring opportunities continues to shrink the floor just a bit for them on offense, but their defense will continue to keep them in games against powerhouses like the Lynx and Aces in the future. 

Bottom 3 Teams’ Struggles Continue

In the same way that the Cup is an indicator of good things to come for the teams that dominate during its stretch of June, you can also find some sleepers ready to awaken in the middle of the WNBA season through these contests. The Indiana Fever were injury ravaged last season headed into Cup play, and still won the Eastern Conference and the championship. 

That same magic just hasn’t existed for the Chicago Sky, Connecticut Sun, or Seattle Storm. The three teams are also at the bottom of the standings overall, but landed out of the Cup quite quickly into the tournament. Chicago, who looked like they could be a solid squad following their re-signing of Azura Stevens, their trade for Rickea Jackson, and their landing Skylar Diggins, have started to look a lot like the team we saw in 2025 – a tanking one, with little direction. They’ve gone from a team that dominates the glass and points in the paint to one that is struggling to find offense just about anywhere, currently averaging just 82.2 points per game. 

The Sun are in a similar boat. One year out from their move to Houston, and they aren’t looking much improved upon their rough 2025 season. Connecticut has gotten some great sparks out of Diamond Miller, second year player Aneesah Morrow, and veteran center Brittney Griner, but they’re lacking consistency on all fronts. 

As for Seattle, we knew headed into this season that this was going to essentially be a feel out year. The franchise is set for the future – Awa Fam, Flau’Jae Johnson, and Dominique Malonga is quite the young trio to have in tow and ready to develop under head coach Sonia Raman, and they have some great vets on the team like Natisha Hiedeman, Stef Dolson, and Jade Melbourne leading them, as well. 

But, all three of these franchises are clearly off on the wrong foot to begin 2026, and that carried over seamlessly into Cup play. 

Dallas, Los Angeles Benefit Most from Cup Games

The Dallas Wings might not have anticipated that Jessica Shepard, and not Alanna Smith, would be their most coveted frontcourt get from free agency this past season. But, Shepard is tallying up double-doubles and showing off her facilitation skills in addition to her scoring capabilities in the paint for Dallas. That’s opening things wide open for Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale, and rookie Azzi Fudd. In June, and despite barely missing out on the Western Conference clinch, the team is averaging 38.5 rebounds per game, 23.3 assists per game, and are toting a 96.7 defensive rating. Their offense, especially from three point range, remains their largest struggle. But, their paint scoring and defensive prowess is keeping them in contention against the rest of the west. 

As for the Sparks, they’re beginning to figure things out in June. Kelsey Plum remains their best bailout option on offense, although it’s tough to ask her to give you over 40 points per game for the rest of the season. Los Angeles has to see meaningful, consistent contributions from the rest of their roster in order to remain afloat in the standings. Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby are Plum’s best bets for assistance on that front.