It’s been an iconic month for sports in New York City. 

The New York Knicks won the Finals for the first time since 1973, Gotham FC brought up the Challenger’s Cup trophy, and now, the New York Liberty are Commissioner’s Cup champions for a second time. 

The Las Vegas Aces, who were unfortunately without A’ja Wilson due to an ankle injury suffered over the weekend, looked lost on offense as they tried to find consistent shooting from literally anywhere in their lineup. For a moment, in the second half, that answer looked to be Jackie Young, but New York’s guard room beat out Las Vegas’ in the end. 

The Liberty desperately needed this win, as they had been skidding into this championship game. The Aces, conversely, have been cruising with Wilson piecing together yet another MVP-caliber season so far. However, this loss exposed weaknesses in their frontcourt and on offense when she’s not available.

Despite depth, experience, and X-factors always being the topic of discussion headed into big games like this, it all came down to who had more star power willing to step up to the plate for just one game – New York did.

New York Won The Guard Battle

Sabrina Ionescu #20 of the New York Liberty and Jackie Young #0 of the Las Vegas Aces

I wrote that this game could end up being a battle of the guards once we knew it would be Las Vegas against New York.

Sabrina Ionescu had 26 points on a heavy shot diet. She was doing an excellent job throughout the contest of using her gravity to set up Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones cutting to the basket. Pauline Astier added 15 points on 5-8 shooting, and the two guards had half of the Liberty’s assists on the night. 

Jackie Young had 31 points, looking like the only Aces player who could find their shot – especially from three-point range. Chelsea Gray, very abnormally, had just seven points on 3-12 shooting. 

Chennedy Carter was the spark plug in the Aces guard room outside of Young, with her 18 points helping to keep Las Vegas in the contest in the first half when it felt like New York could potentially run away with things. But, as she’s ramping back up into regular action following an extended break from play, she only had 25 minutes on the court compared to Gray’s 36. 

In a game where the frontcourt battle wasn’t as much of a focal point as fans might’ve wanted it to be, New York managed to edge out the Aces star backcourt.

Las Vegas’ Frontcourt Depth Still an Issue?

Without Wilson, Las Vegas’ front court – NaLyssa Smith, Stephanie Talbot, Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, Bri Turner, and Kierstan Ball – had a combined 24 points on the night. Talbot and Turner had zero points combined in 21 minutes on the court. 

Stewart, alone, had 25 points for New York. She was the difference maker without Wilson on the floor. She deters players like Stewart, Jones, and even Ionescu from testing her at the rim, averaging two blocks per game. With her off the floor, the Liberty paced the Aces with 46 points in the paint. On the season, New York’s scoring 39.7 percent of their points in the paint. In this game, their 46 points accounted for nearly half of their scoring. 

It feels premature to say that Las Vegas is not as good a team without Wilson. We’ve seen Smith piece together some great performances in relief of Wilson, and Parker-Tyus has been a solid backup piece for the Aces. But you simply cannot replicate Wilson’s defensive presence. It’s one of one. New York felt that and took advantage of it immediately, which is a problem if you’re trying to give Wilson some relief in future contests.

History of Cup Predicting Finals Teams

The New York Liberty with their 2023 and 2026 Commissioner’s Cup Championship trophies

Over the last few seasons, the Commissioner’s Cup has been a great crystal ball into who might make a deep postseason run, or even a Finals appearance. There have been some discrepancies along the way since the Cup began in 2021 – the Indiana Fever beat the Minnesota Lynx in 2025 to take the Cup, but they couldn’t sustain that success due to a dearth of injuries. 

But, the Liberty, Aces, and Lynx all seem to just be trading spots in the Cup final and also in the postseason. In 2022, the Aces beat the Chicago Sky in the Cup championship and proceeded to win the Finals. In 2023, the Aces took on the Liberty for the first time in the championship, got completely bulldozed by New York, and then went back-to-back as WNBA Finals champions against them anyway. 

In 2024, Minnesota beat New York in the Cup finals, and then New York redeemed themselves for their 2023 fumble with a Finals win of their own against Minnesota that same year. 

So, could this year’s Cup championship slate mean anything for the postseason, or the Finals, specifically? 

Absolutely. These are two experienced, stacked teams with some youth injected and two very solid benches. Minnesota will obviously threaten the order of things once Napheesa Collier is back (and, it’s not like they’re not already tearing up the league without her, as they’re in first place). Still, New York against Las Vegas in this year’s Cup championship is as predictable a potential Finals preview as the sun rising tomorrow.