The Commissioner’s Cup, presented by Coinbase, is returning for a 4th season in the WNBA. While the core concept of an in-season tournament remains the same, how we get to and build up to that point looks slightly different. 

What’s different?

• Teams will now play 5 Commissioner’s Cup games instead of 10 qualifying games in years prior. However, all Commissioner’s Cup games will be played from June 1st to the 13th, condensing the period to highlight the in-season competition.
• Each team will play once against their in-conference opponents during the Cup qualifying games.
• The Commissioner’s Cup Final will be played on June 25th between the top teams in Cup play by record from each conference. The team with the best overall record in Cup play will host the final.

What’s the same?

• Commissioner’s Cup games (excluding the Final) will count for the regular season win-loss record.
• The Cup Final teams will still play for a $500,000 prize pool.
• Each team will be playing for a non-profit organization that aligns with player social justice work, and the accumulated donation money will be presented to those organizations at the end of Commissioner’s Cup play.

As we get ready for Commissioner’s Cup play, what teams look primed to make a run to the Championship Game? What stands out about their playing, and how might they improve over the start of June?

Eastern Conference

Connecticut Sun

The Sun remain the lone undefeated team in the WNBA and has earned that top spot with balanced two-way play. They are second in the W in Offensive and Defensive Rating. If I had to pick a team from the East at this moment to make the Championship Game, it would be the Sun.

Part of what’s been so interesting about this team is that they’re thriving in spite of some of their inefficiencies. Let me explain.

Connecticut is currently doing a ton of things well on offense. They get to the line at the second-highest rate in the league, have the second-lowest turnover rate in the W, and have been strong on the offensive glass. All of these aspects are crucial to being an efficient offensive team. 

It’s also worth noting that six games in, the Sun are last in the league in three-point percentage and second last in field goal percentage at the rim. While both of these could be considered negative (and have been a hindrance in the early season), it stands out that this is more of an early-season anomaly than what I would expect to happen for the entire season. As the Sun continues to find its form, I would anticipate continued and even increased effectiveness.

New York Liberty

Similarly to the Sun, the Liberty have shot well below what I would anticipate throughout a season from deep, currently 11th in three-point shooting.

Last year’s WNBA Finals runner-ups and the Commissioner’s Cup champions are undergoing quite a bit of change to start the year. While the entire starting lineup is back, the bench looks incredibly different. Liberty head coach Sandy Brondello has been experimenting more with closing lineups and different combinations of the starters and members of the bench.

Figuring out how to maximize versatility takes time, and is something I look to see the Liberty do in Cup play. 

What I am most curious to see from the Liberty is for them to take full advantage of their size. They’ve shown glimpses of being able to get star center Jonquel Jones going early and often, but haven’t been in constant rhythm. The Liberty have also been below average on the defensive glass tied for 10th in defensive rebound rate, which has been problematic in allowing second-chance points.

The Liberty are a good basketball team but have the potential to hit a special stride as they unlock what differentiates their 2024 squad from last season’s.

Western Conference

Las Vegas Aces

The Las Vegas Aces made a significant move on Friday, May 31st, signing Tiffany Hayes as she came out of retirement to play for the reigning champs. The Aces are a phenomenal basketball team, the standard in the game these past two seasons, and Hayes brings them an entirely different dynamic than they’ve had.

Hayes is electric off the dribble, much like Jackie Young, but gets to the paint more with her shiftiness and flexibility as a ballhandler. She can really create clean looks off the dribble, is dynamic off the catch as a slasher, and is a fantastic playmaker.

Her defensive attributes also cannot be undersold, capable of guarding multiple players on the ball, but is most adept at making rotations on the backline, helping into the paint, and darting into passing lanes.

Las Vegas already brings the best guard rotation in the league to the court each night, and with Hayes on the wing, this team gets deeper and more versatile. With Chelsea Gray still sidelined indefinitely, Hayes’ impact looms even larger. 

Did I mention Hayes is one of the best cutters in basketball? Playing off of the best post player in the game in A’ja Wilson, the lanes for Hayes to present herself for will be numerous: Per Synergy Sports, Hayes finished first in the WNBA in field goal percentage amongst players who had 25 scoring chances or more as a cutter, shooting 81.8% on cuts.

Minnesota Lynx

The Lynx lost their recent affair with the reigning champs, falling 80-66 to the Aces, although the game was much closer than the final score indicates. Minnesota has proven in the early season that it’s a different team than last year, with some glimpses of being a viable playoff contender.

While it’s understandable that the best player in basketball couldn’t be contained, (Wilson finished with 29 points and 15 rebounds), I’m curious to see how the Lynx continue to craft how they’ll better defend the paint, particularly the post.

Minnesota is a stingy defensive unit, but it is still ranked first in the league in terms of defensive rating. However, they are dead last in the WNBA in defensive efficiency in the post, per Synergy Sports. For reference, the Lynx are allowing the highest offensive efficiency in the league against Post-Ups (1.13 points per possession) and Post-Ups, including passes out (1.175 points per possession).

The post is not everything, as defense is more than defending one kind of play type. However, against the Aces and Sun, the top two teams in the league at present, the Lynx have struggled late in the game, defending against prime post matchups. Minnesota has a wealth of versatility and is still working Dorka Juhasz into the rotation after her return from overseas play.

This is a key storyline to follow in Commissioner’s Cup play and the season at large.

Seattle Storm

The Seattle Storm are quietly starting to find a groove after a tough start to the season, playing eight games over a 16-day stretch. The defense has impressed from the Storm early, and the offense has begun to mesh as May has come to a close.

Skylar Diggins-Smith is averaging 18.3 points and seven assists over her last three games, all Storm victories. She’s shooting 60% from the field and over 50% from three. While those are unsustainable shooting numbers, it stands out that Diggins-Smith is starting to find a rhythm. Her patent pull-up jumper hadn’t quite been in touch yet, understandably, given her time away from the court. As she’s found her own rhythm, it’s only made it hit harder as she’s gotten her teammates the ball when and where it’s needed.

Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike have started to find an incredible synergy, arguably the most efficient and effective piece of Seattle’s halfcourt offense being their two-player game. Per PBP Stats, Diggins-Smith has assisted Ogwumike 12 times this season, resulting in 25 points scored. No player has been assisted by another individual on the team more than Ogwumike from Diggins-Smith or generated even 20 points off assists.

As Seattle looks to make a run at the Commissioner’s Cup, expect that duo to play a central part in supplementing the shotmaking dynamism of Jewell Loyd.