WNBA Finals 2022 Preview: (1) Las Vegas Aces vs. (3) Connecticut Sun


For just the third time in the past 17 years, two teams that have never won a championship will compete in the WNBA Finals as the top-seeded Las Vegas Aces and third-seeded Connecticut Sun tip off their best-of-five series on Sunday afternoon on ABC.

FINALS SCHEDULE

  • Game 1: Connecticut Sun at Las Vegas Aces; Sunday, Sept. 11; 3:00 PM ET, ABC
  • Game 2: Connecticut Sun at Las Vegas Aces; Tuesday, Sept. 13; 9:00 PM ET, ESPN
  • Game 3: Las Vegas Aces at Connecticut Sun; Thursday, Sept. 15; 9:00 PM ET, ESPN
  • Game 4*: Las Vegas Aces at Connecticut Sun; Sunday, Sept. 18; 4:00 PM ET, ESPN
  • Game 5*: Connecticut Sun at Las Vegas Aces; Tuesday, Sept. 20; 9:00 PM ET, ESPN

* if necessary

HOW THEY GOT HERE

Las Vegas

  • Earned the No. 1 seed in the WNBA Playoffs with a 26-10 regular season record and the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chicago Sky
  • Swept the Phoenix Mercury in the First Round, 2-0
  • Defeated the Seattle Storm in the Semi-Finals, 3-1

The Aces entered the postseason as the top seed in the tournament thanks to their 26-10 record and tiebreaker over the defending champion Sky. After dispatching the short-handed Mercury in the First Round in a two-game sweep, the Aces faced a tough test from the Storm in the Semi-Finals. 

Behind the efficient and clutch shooting of Chelsea Gray (59% from the field, 50% from three) and the outstanding play from A’ja Wilson over the final three games of the series (30 ppg, 12 rpg, 64% shooting), the Aces bounced back from a Game 1 loss with three straight wins to secure their second trip to the Finals in three seasons.

Connecticut

  • Earned the No. 3 seed in the WNBA Playoffs with a 25-11 regular season record
  • Defeated the Dallas Wings in the First Round, 2-1
  • Defeated the Chicago Sky in the Semi-Finals, 3-2

The Sun entered the postseason as the No. 3 seed, finishing the regular season one game back of both the Aces and Sky but with the top point differential in the league (plus-8.0). The Sun faced winner-take-all games on the road in each of their series leading up to the Finals.

On both occasions, the Sun relied on their defense to lead them to victory. Connecticut held Dallas to 58 points on 36% shooting in the First Round, then held Chicago to 63 points on 34% shooting in the Semi-Finals. The Sun outscored the Sky 24-5 in the fourth quarter of Game 5, closing the game on a record 18-0 run to advance to the Finals for the second time in four years. 

SEASON SERIES (Las Vegas 2, Connecticut 1)

The Aces won the season series two games to one, with all three games decided by eight points or less. 

May 31, 2022: Aces 91, Sun 83: Recap/Highlights | Box Score

The first game of a two-game set over three days in Las Vegas saw the Aces get a big game from A’ja Wilson (24 points, 14 rebounds, two blocks, two assists, one steal) and 21 points from Jackie Young to take the first meeting with Connecticut.

Las Vegas scored a season-high 22 fast break points, outscoring the Sun by 20 points in transition. The Aces led by as many as 20 points in the fourth quarter before the Sun went on a 14-2 run to cut the lead to eight with a minute to play and forced Becky Hammon to put her starters back in to close the door.

DeWanna Bonner led the Sun with 14 points, while Alyssa Thomas posted a double-double with 12 points, 11 boards, and six assists. Connecticut played without head coach Curt Miller on the sidelines as he missed the game due to COVID-19.

June 2, 2022: Sun 97, Aces 90: Recap/Highlights | Box Score

Two days later, the Sun turned the tables on the Aces as Connecticut posted its third-highest scoring game of the season (fourth if you include the playoffs) with 97 points. Connecticut used a balanced scoring attack with four players scoring between 16 and 20 points: Jonquel Jones with 20, Bonner with 19, Courtney Williams with 18, and Thomas with 16. That effort helped offset a combined 49 points from the Vegas backcourt of Jackie Young (26) and Kelsey Plum (23).

The Sun also held A’ja Wilson to just 13 points, which is key to slowing down Las Vegas’ high-powered offense. Between the regular season and playoffs, the Aces are 26-6 when Wilson scores at least 15 points; they are just 5-5 when Wilson is held below 15 points.

July 17, 2022: Aces 89, Sun 81: Recap/Highlights | Box Score

The rubber match was played six weeks later in Connecticut in a matchup of the teams with the top two records in the league at that time. Las Vegas had three players score 20 points or more – Kelsey Plum with 22, Chelsea Gray with 21 to go with nine assists, and Wilson with 20 – while the Sun had none as they played without reigning league MVP Jonquel Jones due to COVID-19.

The Sun committed 22 turnovers in the game – one shy of their season-high – which the Aces converted into a season-high 33 points off turnovers as Connecticut’s miscues fueled Las Vegas’ offense. Ironically, this was Connecticut’s only loss in 12 games this season with 18 or more turnovers. 

 Tale of the Tape: Regular Season Head-to-Head Matchups

Then looking at the numbers, the Sun shot the ball better from the field and from beyond the arc and dominated the glass. Still, Las Vegas held significant advantages at the free throw line, forcing and scoring off turnovers, scoring on transition opportunities, and taking and making more 3-pointers.

Las Vegas had the top three scorers in the season series: Plum (21.0 ppg), Young (19.7), and Wilson (19.0). Connecticut had the only two double-digit rebounders in the series: Alyssa Thomas (12.3 rpg) and Jonquel Jones (10.0). Jones also led all players in field goal percentage as she shot 76.9% from the field and 62.5% from 3-point range in her two games played. However, she averaged only 6.5 shot attempts (4.0 from 3-point range) in the series. Las Vegas’s Plum (3.3 3pm on 40% shooting) and Riquna Williams (3.0 3pm on 50% shooting) were the top two 3-point threats in the series, along with Jones.

FIVE STORYLINES TO WATCH

A First-Time Champion Will Be Crowned

Only ten teams have won the championship through the first 25 seasons of the WNBA. That will increase to 11 this year as Connecticut and Las Vegas search for the first championship in their franchise’s history.

The Sun and Aces are two of the three active franchises in the WNBA that has relocated during its history. The Aces are one of the WNBA’s original eight franchises, beginning as the Utah Starzz from 1997 to 2002, relocating to San Antonio and rebranding as the Silver Stars (then later just the Stars) from 2003 to 2017, before heading to Las Vegas and rebranding as the Aces in 2018. The Sun entered the WNBA in 1999 as the Orlando Miracle before relocating to Connecticut and rebranding as the Sun in 2003. 

Both teams have made multiple trips to the WNBA Finals in their franchise’s history but have yet to hoist the trophy and spray the champagne at the end of the series. 

This is Connecticut’s fourth trip to the Finals, having also contended for the championship in 2004 (losing to Seattle 2-1), 2005 (losing to Sacramento 3-1), and 2019 (losing to Washington 3-2). The Sun brings a 4-8 Finals record into this year’s best-of-five series.

This is Las Vegas’ third trip to the Finals, having suffered sweeps in both 2008 (to Detroit during the franchise’s San Antonio tenure) and in 2020 (to Seattle in the franchise’s third season in Las Vegas). The Aces are not only looking for their first WNBA title, and they are looking for their first win in the WNBA Finals as they enter this series with an 0-6 record on the league’s grandest stage.

Can Las Vegas cap off a season filled with team accolades and individual honors with their first championship?

Las Vegas finished atop the WNBA standings with a franchise-record 26 wins this season. Plus, the Aces have already hoisted one championship trophy this year, as they defeated Chicago in the second-annual Commissioner’s Cup Championship back in July. 

On an individual basis, the accolades have been pouring in for Las Vegas. Becky Hammon was named Coach of the Year in her first season on the sidelines, becoming the first person in league history to make the WNBA Finals as both a player and coach. Jackie Young was named Most Improved Player as the fourth-year pro took a giant leap this season; Kelsey Plum finished second in the league in scoring and took home All-Star MVP honors midway through the season.

Then there is A’ja Wilson, who won her second league Most Valuable Player award and coupled it with her first Defensive Player of the Year honor. She is just the fifth player in WNBA history to win MVP and DPOY in the same season, joining a group of Hall of Famers: Sheryl Swoopes (twice), Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie, and Yolanda Griffith. 

Of course, all of those regular season honors will pale in comparison to winning that elusive first championship. It would be the first for the franchise and nearly the entire roster; only Chelsea Gray has won a title before as part of the 2016 Los Angeles Sparks.

Can Connecticut finally break through after being the winningest team in the WNBA over the past six regular seasons but having no championship rings to show for it?

Since the 2017 season, no team in the WNBA has posted a better regular season record than the Connecticut Sun at 126-66. Head coach, Curt Miller’s squad, has consistently put themselves in a position for a deep playoff run but have not been able to carry their regular season success through the postseason.

In 2017 and 2018, the Sun exited in the single-elimination Second Round to Diana Taurasi and the Phoenix Mercury, despite being the higher seed and playing at home both years.

In 2019, the Sun finished second in the regular season and thus avoided the single-elimination rounds and had a bye to the Semi-Finals. After sweeping the Los Angeles Sparks, the Sun made it back to the Finals for the first time in 14 years but lost a tough five-game series to Washington.

In 2020, it was the Aces that knocked the Sun out in the Semi-Finals in another tightly-contested five-game series. In 2021, the Sun finished with the best record in the regular season but were upset by the eventual champion Sky in four games. The Sun avenged that loss with their historic comeback in Game 5 of this year’s Semi-Finals.

Overall, the Sun are 15-14 in the postseason since 2017. They’ll need to bring that win total to 18 to complete their ultimate goal after years of playoff frustration.

Can Chelsea Gray complete the greatest playoff run ever?

There is no better feeling on a basketball court than being “in the zone” – when your game is clicking on all cylinders, and it feels like every shot you put up is going in, every pass you make will hit your teammate perfectly, and there is nothing the opposing team can do to stop you.

Chelsea Gray is currently in one of the greatest zones we’ve ever seen in the WNBA Playoffs. Through six games against Phoenix and Seattle, Gray is averaging 24.0 points per game on 62.6% (57-of-91) shooting from the field, 59.5% (22-of-37) from 3-point range, and 88.9% (8-9) from the free throw line, while also dishing out a playoff-leading 7.7 assists per game.

Only three other players in WNBA playoff history have averaged at least 20 points and five assists while playing in at least five games: Diana Taurasi (2014, 2018), Cappie Pondexter (2007), and Cynthia Cooper (1999). Taurasi’s 2018 team is the only one that did not win the title. And no player in WNBA playoff history has posted a higher true shooting percentage while attempting at least 25 shots than Gray’s 75.8% so far this postseason.

In the series-clinching Game 4 of the Semi-Finals, Gray became the first player in WNBA history with at least 30 points and ten assists in a playoff game. She hit back-to-back buckets in the final 90 seconds to turn a tie game into a five-point lead that the Aces never relinquished.

It was just the latest example of Gray’s ability to thrive in clutch situations. All four games against Seattle in Semi-Finals featured clutch time – score within five points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. In 23 minutes of clutch play, Gray scored 25 points on 83.3% (10-of-12) shooting from the field, making both of her 3-point attempts and three of her four free throws.

She made more clutch baskets in that series alone than in the regular season when she shot 7-15 in 45 minutes of clutch play over 17 games. In fact, only 13 players made more than 10 clutch baskets all regular season; Chelsea Gray just made 10 in a single playoff series.

Connecticut has relied on its defense to lead them back to the Finals, but they will face their toughest test yet against a scorching hot Chelsea Gray, who somehow was the only Las Vegas starter not named to the All-Star Game this season. If the Sun focuses too much attention on Gray, the Aces have the weapons around her to make Connecticut pay. It will be interesting to see how the Sun tries to contain Gray while also keeping themselves in a position to guard all the star power around her.

MVP Matchup on the Frontline

The two players that have won the past three league MVPs – Las Vegas’ A’ja Wilson (2020 and 2022) and Connecticut’s Jonquel Jones (2021) will be the featured matchup to watch in this series.

Wilson is coming off a matchup with one-time league MVP and two-time Finals MVP Breanna Stewart in the Semi-Finals, where Wilson played all but four minutes of the entire series. There have only been 13 30+point, 10+ rebound games in WNBA playoff history; Wilson tied Candace Parker for the most ever with two and did so in back-to-back games against the Storm in Games 2 and 3.

Meanwhile, Jones is coming off a matchup with Parker, a two-time league MVP, and one-time Finals MVP. After being benched late in Connecticut’s Game 3 loss, Jones responded by posting nine points, seven rebounds, and five assists in the Sun’s Game 4 win and recording a double-double with 15 points, 10 rebounds, two steals, and two blocks in the series-clinching Game 5.

It will be interesting to see how often Jones and Wilson match up with one another. The Sun have a long and deep frontline to throw multiple defenders at the 6-foot-4 Wilson: DeWanna Bonner (6-4), Alyssa Thomas (6-2), and Sixth Player of the Year Brionna Jones (6-3) join Jonquel Jones (6-6) to give Miller plenty of options to build his defensive scheme against this year’s MVP.

INJURY REPORT

Las Vegas: Dearica Hamby returned midway through the Semi-Finals against Seattle but still is not at 100 percent from a knee contusion she suffered late in the regular season. In two games, Hamby played a total of just eight minutes, did not attempt a shot, and posted two rebounds and two turnovers. By closing out the series in Game 4 on Tuesday, the Aces did give themselves two extra days of rest for a total of five days off before the Finals begin, which should only help Hamby’s recovery.

Connecticut: Jasmine Thomas and Bria Hartley are both out for the season after suffering ACL tears during the regular season.

THE PICK

Las Vegas in five games. Both the Sun and Aces have been knocking on the championship door for the past few four years – making the Semi-Finals each year and each team advancing to the Finals once but leaving without a championship. The hunger from both teams to reach the pinnacle of the WNBA should make this an extremely competitive series.

When it comes to determining which team will ultimately triumph, the team that can dictate the style of play will have a huge advantage. The Aces will want this to be a track meet – a high-paced game with plenty of possessions, fast breaks, 3-pointers, and finishes at the basket. The Sun will want this to be a demolition derby – or as Coach Miller likes to say, a “messy style of play” – where the Sun can force the Aces to slow the pace, grind out possessions, and punish Las Vegas with their size and power.

Connecticut was able to impose its will on Chicago, forcing the Sky to try to beat the Sun at their game, and ultimately, the Sky were unable to do so. Watching Connecticut’s game-ending run exemplified the fight and perseverance that this team has in its DNA. However, the Sun will face a tougher task in trying to slow down the Aces, who have scoring weapons all over the court and are anchored by the league MVP in Wilson on the inside and the current hottest player on the planet in Gray on the perimeter.

With Wilson and Gray currently playing at historic levels, it is tough to see the Aces losing three times in five games. But I was wrong when I picked against Connecticut in the Semi-Finals, and there’s nothing the Sun enjoys doing more than making people eat their words.

Longtime WNBA reporter Brian Martin writes articles on WNBA.com throughout the season. The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the WNBA or its clubs.