What To Watch - Wednesday, Aug. 15, 2018

Over the final week of the regular season, we will break down the games of the day by looking at the playoff implications in terms of tiebreakers, seeding and clinching/elimination scenarios.
Wednesday night features two games, which can both be seen on NBA TV. Each game features one team in the playoff mix and one team that has already been eliminated from the postseason.
Washington Mystics at Indiana Fever, 7 p.m. ET, NBA TV
The Mystics (20-11) currently hold the No. 3 seed in the playoffs as they sit 1.5 games back of No. 2 Atlanta (22-10) and 1.5 games up on both Connecticut and Los Angeles (both at 19-13).
Washington’s only chance to catch Atlanta for a top two seed is for the Dream to lose out while the Mystics win their final three games. Since the Dream own the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Mystics must finish with a better overall record to earn the spot.
The more likely scenario for the Mystics is securing a bye in the first round by finishing in either the No. 3 or 4 spot. A win over the Fever on Wednesday will help keep their two-game cushion in the loss column over the Sparks and Sun. The tiebreakers with these teams have yet to be determined; the Mystics and Sparks are tied at 1-1 with their final meeting on Friday to determine the tiebreaker; the Mystics finished tied 2-2 with the Sun and their tiebreaker will be determined by the superior record against teams over .500 at season’s end.
But the Mystics control their own destiny. If they win two of their final three games, they are assured of a top four seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs.
New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces, 10 p.m. ET, NBA TV
There is only one playoff spot open and the Aces (13-18) are looking to swipe it away from the stumbling Wings (14-18), who lost their ninth straight game on Tuesday. Dallas and Vegas are now tied in the loss column and meet on Friday in their final meeting of the regular season.
Dallas owns the tiebreaker regardless of Friday’s outcome as they lead the season series 2-0, so the Aces must finish with a better record to overtake the current No. 8 seed. If the Aces can defeat the Liberty on Wednesday, then Vegas would enter Friday’s matchup with Dallas with matching 14-18 records and a chance to leapfrog the Wings in the standings with a win.
A loss to New York does not eliminate the Aces from playoff contention, but it makes their road much more difficult. If they lose Wednesday, the Aces would need to win their final two games of the season while the Wings also lose their final two games. A win over New York on Wednesday, puts the Aces’ fate in their own hands.
Bill Laimbeer’s new team (the Aces) has won their first two meetings against his old team (the Liberty) and will look to make it a clean sweep on Wednesday in Las Vegas, where the Aces are 7-8 this season.
Lottery Odds
While the Mystics are looking to secure their playoff position and the Aces are looking to make the field, the Fever and Liberty have already been eliminated from the playoffs as they hold the two worst records in the league – New York sits 11th at 7-24 while Indiana is 12th at 5-26.
New York, Indiana and Chicago have locked up three of the four spots in the upcoming draft lottery, with either Las Vegas or Dallas joining them, depending on which of those two teams missed out on the playoffs.
Keep in mind that the draft lottery odds are based on the cumulative records of the lottery teams over the past two regular seasons rather than just the current season. Here are the cumulative records for the three teams that are already in the lottery and the two that may join them.
Team | 2018 | 2017 | Cumulative |
8. Dallas | 14-18 | 16-18 | 30-36 (0.455) |
9. Las Vegas | 13-18 | 8-26 | 21-44 (0.323) |
10. Chicago | 12-20 | 12-22 | 24-42 (0.363) |
11. New York | 7-24 | 22-12 | 29-36 (0.446) |
12. Indiana | 5-26 | 9-25 | 14-51 (0.215) |
With a cumulative record of 14-51 over the past two seasons, the Fever will enter the draft lottery with the best odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 Draft – regardless of the outcome of this week’s games.