2008 WNBA Finals Preview
RELATED CONTENT | |
|
Get Storm Headlines!A funny thing happened on the way to the WNBA Finals: The San Antonio Silver Stars didn't play very well.
It's not just that the Silver Stars played the maximum six games over the first two rounds - after all, so too did the Eastern Conference champion Detroit Shock. It's more that the San Antonio suffered some sizeable defeats while seeing their only convincing win (Game 1 against Sacramento) turn scary down the stretch. In Game 3 against the Monarchs, the Silver Stars needed overtime to advance. To beat Los Angeles in the Western Conference Finals, San Antonio had to get a miraculous shot from Sophia Young in Game 2 as well as a shocking comeback in the closing minutes of Game 3.
Add it all up and the Silver Stars were outscored by 15 points en route to the WNBA Finals. If that sounds unusual, it should. San Antonio is the first team to be outscored and win both of the first two rounds of the playoffs since the WNBA went to its current playoff format in 2000. Just two of the previous 16 finalists - including last year's Detroit Shock squad, previously worst by point differential entering the Finals (+2) - failed to outscore their opponents by at least 25 points.
My preferred way to analyze playoff performance, because of the importance of quality of opposition, is to compare a team's results with its opponents' regular-season performance. This method casts some light on why the Silver Stars have struggled in the postseason.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
To make sure this is clear, what the numbers is show is that a completely average team, playing six games against Indiana and New York, would post an 
Offensive Rating of 96.8 and a Defensive Rating of 97.8. Instead, Detroit actually had an Offensive Rating of 99.5 and a 92.1 Defensive Rating, playing better than average at both ends of the floor but particularly on the defensive end.
San Antonio's numbers, then, should be considered fairly stunning. The Silver Stars offense, which hovered around league average all season, has been terrific in the postseason. Over the last six games, the Silver Stars have scored the ball at a rate that, given the opposition, is comparable to how efficient Connecticut and Minnesota were during the regular season; only Phoenix had a better offense.
 | |
|
You might point out that while the Sparks struggled to score at times during the regular season, their trio of stars has more impact in the playoffs. Perhaps, but even in comparison with Los Angeles' first-round series with the Storm, the Silver Stars D comes up short. By focusing on neutralizing Lisa Leslie and Candace Parker, the Storm held the Sparks to 87.8 points per 100 possessions in a series Los Angeles won with even stronger defense. The Sparks boosted their Offensive Rating to 100.6 against San Antonio.
The poor defense for the Silver Stars is almost entirely attributable to hot opponent shooting. During the regular season, San Antonio limited opponents to 39.8 percent from the field, tied for second-best in the league; during the playoffs, that has skyrocketed to 46.8 percent. I don't really have a good explanation as to why. Watching the Silver Stars against Los Angeles, nothing stood out to me strategically. Guard Helen Darling, the team's best defender, has been limited in the playoffs while rookie Morenike Atunrase, another strong perimeter defender, has virtually been forgotten. Still, that isn't enough to explain the league's best regular-season defensive team having such a hard time stopping anyone in the playoffs.
San Antonio Head Coach Dan Hughes better get things figured out quickly, because his team will face its toughest test of the playoffs in the Shock. Detroit was the league's most balanced contender in the regular season, ranking fourth in the WNBA in Offensive Rating and fifth on defense. While the Shock hasn't exactly dominated in the playoffs either, a blowout Game 3 win over Indiana in the opening round aside, Detroit has been solid and taken care of business.
The Silver Stars swept the two regular-season head-to-head meetings of these teams, but those games don't tell us much about what will happen in this series. In the first, San Antonio took care of business as expected at the AT&T Center. When the teams got together again in Detroit in the last game before the Olympic break, the Shock was reeling from the melee with Los Angeles earlier in the week and was without Plenette Pierson due to suspension, having not yet acquired veteran post Taj McWilliams-Franklin, who has been typically solid since coming to Detroit.
Injuries are a major wild card in this series. Pierson has been termed a game-time decision by Head Coach Bill Laimbeer, having injured her shoulder against Indiana. She returned for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but was able to play just six minutes in Game 3 after suffering a hard foul. While the importance of Pierson, a former Sixth Woman Award winner, to the Shock is obvious, San Antonio has a major concern of its own in the availability of reserve guards Darling and Edwige Lawson-Wade. Neither player practiced Tuesday, and both remain day-to-day. Without their two reserve ballhandlers, the Silver Stars have a tough time resting All-Star guard Becky Hammon for more than short stretches, which could become problematic as the playoffs continue and against a physical Detroit defense.
In addition to playing behind Hammon, a fully healthy Darling likely would also have seen a lot of time alongside her. She played 37 total minutes in the two regular-season matchups and gives the Silver Stars much better matchups defensively on the perimeter. As is, veteran Vickie Johnson likely will defend Deanna Nolan. That leaves Hughes with the choice of either Hammon or Erin Buescher against Katie Smith, sacrificing either size or quickness against the dangerous Detroit veteran. At the other end, Second Team All-Defensive member Smith figures to get the nearly impossible task of trying to contain the Silver Stars star. Smith's size could create some problems for Hammon, but she still had 42 points and 13 assists against the Shock in the regular season.
Up front, the top matchup pits the athleticism of Sophia Young against McWilliams-Franklin's veteran savvy. However, the more pivotal confrontation could be between San Antonio center Ann Wauters and the Shock's Kara Braxton, Olayinka Sanni and Kelly Schumacher. This is the biggest advantage the Silver Stars have, and Wauters will have to dramatically outplay her Detroit counterparts. It's also worth keeping an eye on Buescher and Pierson when they match up with each other, since they are two of the league's best at drawing fouls.
From the perspective of the casual fan, Detroit and San Antonio was the least sexy of the four potential Finals matchups by the time we reached the conference finals. Still, there are enough big names on both sides and the basketball, while defensive-minded, should be strong. For WNBA die-hards who know what a championship would mean for long-time favorites Johnson and McWilliams-Franklin, it should be a treat. Ultimately, however, this won't be much of a series unless the Silver Stars get their defense together. My suspicion is that won't happen quickly enough to keep Detroit from stealing a game at the AT&T Center. If that's the case, the Shock will be tough to beat at home. I like them to take this series in four games.