Statistically Speaking: Age Is Just A Number

You know who says that? Old people.

But age, and the experience that comes with it, have proven to be valuable commodities over the years in the WNBA.

At the beginning of each season, the WNBA sends out some biological statistical information on each team. This information includes the average height, weight, and age of each team. When figuring the average age of each team, the league adds up the ages of each player on the roster and divides by the number of players on the roster.

This makes sense, of course. That is the definition of �average� after all. However, from an analysis standpoint I prefer to determine the age of a team in a different manner. The reason being that each player�s contribution to the team is not necessarily equal to that of the other players on the team. Why should the 34-year-old who only plays five minutes a game off the bench carry as much weight as the 27-year-old who logs 32 minutes each night?

She shouldn�t, which is why I prefer to determine a team�s age by weighing each players age by the minutes they played in a given year.

From this point forward, when I refer to a team�s �age� or the league�s �age� I am referring to my version of the term.

The Success of Old vs. Young
So how do younger teams do vs. older teams?

It would appear that the older teams have the edge. The average age over the history of the league is 27.3. The average age of championship teams during that same time is 27.9. The average age of playoff teams is also 27.9 and the average age of teams with winning records is 28.0.

That might not seem like much, but let�s look at it another way. Of the 70 teams that have made the postseason in the past 10 years, 60 percent have been older than average. Of the 65 teams that have posted winning records since the WNBA�s debut, 67.2 percent have been older than average. The difference hasn�t been quite as large over the past several years since the Comets stopped winning their championships, but it still exists � in 2006, six of eight playoff teams were above the league age average.

Championship teams, however, have been slightly below the league average over the past four seasons: The Detroit Shock, at 24.2 years, were the youngest WNBA title winner in history. The following year, the Seattle Storm (28.3) were just under the league average of 28.4. The Sacramento Monarchs, at 27.9, were under the league average of 28.6. And in 2006 the Shock were right at the league average of 27.9.

Gazing Into The Crystal Ball
So does a team�s age have any predictive power with regards to how it performs the following season? In other words, are there teams that we could expect to make a leap forward into the postseason in 2007 based on their ages from 2006?

In this regard, teams that are close to, yet slightly above league average age wise seem to be the teams to look at. The average team age is 27.3. The average age of a team the year before winning a championship is 27.4. The average age of a team the year before making the playoffs is 27.5, and the average age of a team the year before posting a winning record is 27.7.

Teams that meet this general criteria are San Antonio (27.4) and . . . um . . . er . . . Charlotte (27.4).

As far as championship teams go, Houston skews the ratings a bit given their long run. If we just look at championship teams since 2001, five of the past six have been younger than the league average the year before winning the crown � an average of 0.8 years younger, or 26.5 years of age.

Given that, I�m certain that the Vegas odds-makers will be installing the New York Liberty at 26.7 years of age as the front-runners for the 2007 WNBA Championship. Then again . . . maybe not.

Expansion
When the league expands, it gets younger. In 1998, the WNBA added two teams and the average age dropped from 27.3 to 27.0. In 2000, the WNBA added four teams and the average age dropped from 27.3 to 26.6. In 2006 when the WNBA added one team, the average age dropped from 28.6 to 27.9.

The lone exception to the expansion trend is in 1999 when not only did the WNBA add two teams, but some 40 players came into the league from the ABL. In that season the average age increased from 27.0 to 27.3.

During years of contraction, the league gets older. In 2003, the WNBA disbanded two teams and the average age increased from 26.6 to 27.3. In 2004, the league dropped one team and the average age increased from 27.3 to 28.4. So look for the average age to increase in 2007.

Oldest and Youngest

• The oldest team in league history was the 2005 version of the Houston Comets (32.0)
• The oldest championship team in league history was the 1999 Houston Comets (29.7)
• The youngest team in league history was the 2002 version of the Minnesota Lynx (24.0)
• The youngest championship team in league history was the 2003 Detroit Shock (24.2)

Random Notes

• The Minnesota Lynx have never had a team that was older than the league average.
• The Houston Comets have never had a team that was younger than the league average.
• From 1997-2003 there were no 30-year-old teams.
• Since 2004, there have been six 30-year-old teams.
• The first 30-year-old teams were the 2004 Charlotte Sting (30.8) and Sacramento Monarchs (30.3).

Below is the information from each WNBA season. W = a winning record; P = a playoff team; C = a championship team. Teams are ranked by age in decreasing order.

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006