Taking The World By Storm - Aug. 26
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Friday, August 27, 4:30 a.m.
Olympic Indoor Hall
TV: USA Network
Now, it’s for real. The pretenders have cleared the floor, leaving four teams alive in the Olympics, all of whom can legitimately win gold. While the matchups may not precisely be those that were expected – who knew how the three elite teams in Group A, Australia, Brazil and Russia would finish? – those three teams and the United States were the four teams expected to reach the semifinals. The USA Basketball Senior National Team’s draw, Russia, represents a significant step up in terms of level of opposition for the U.S. women, who have yet to play any of the semifinalists, breezing through a Group B that saw only one other team, Spain, even be competitive in the quarterfinals and then crushing Greece in their own quarterfinal.
Certainly, U.S. Coach Van Chancellor is playing the role of always-nervous coach to some extent or another when he talks about his concern with regards to this matchup (“Russia's depth really worries me. They have a lot of players,” Chancellor said after Wednesday’s win. I think that's the one team that our depth would not hurt.”); after all, Chancellor said he was worried about the game with Greece, one his team never trailed in and won by 30 points.
 Baranova and company have the size and ability to play the U.S. even up front. Stuart Franklin/Getty |
If any team in the Olympics is capable of handling the Americans’ dominant front line, it is Russia, which can throw out a twin-towers frontcourt of 6-5 New York Liberty star Elena Baranova (who is coming off the bench) and 6-8 Maria Stepanova, who is expected to return to the Phoenix Mercury for the first time since 2001 after the Olympics. The international game plays to Baranova’s strengths, notably her ability to shoot from the perimeter. Stepanova has been bothered by fouls during the Olympics, but she is a true defensive presence in the lane and is averaging 14.9 rebounds per 40 minutes. Compared to the smaller posts the U.S. has been going against, the Russians will be a much more formidable challenge.
On the perimeter, Russia has been led by guard Ilona Korstine. Korstine, who had a one-season stint with the Mercury in 2001 at the tender age of 21, has blossomed into one of the world’s premier guards. She is averaging 14.2 points per game during the Olympics, shooting an even 50% and getting to the free-throw line 37 times – the most of any player still alive.
In addition to having the most size of any opponent the U.S. has faced, Russia also boasts the greatest depth. Nine Russian players average at least 10 minutes per game, and no player has played more than 26 minutes on average. Russia is arguably the only team in this tournament that can match the U.S. in terms of depth.
Russia’s main weakness has been one of the Americans’, perimeter shooting. Russia ranks last amongst the Olympic teams in both three-pointers made (17) and three-point percentage (22.1%). Baranova, who ranks amongst the WNBA’s leaders with 39 threes and 45.3% shooting from downtown, has hit just 4-for-19 in the Olympics, possibly in some part because of the transition to the larger international ball (the U.S. team, all of them making that transition, is shooting 30.0% from downtown, while Lauren Jackson, one of two players ahead of Baranova in WNBA three-point percentage, is hitting 35%).
In this matchup, the U.S. women cannot rely on their superior size and athleticism to overwhelm their opponent. That means getting production from the perimeter will be critical, and Shannon Johnson’s and Diana Taurasi’s combined 34 points off the bench Wednesday were a great sign for Chancellor. The U.S. would also benefit from getting Baranova and Stepanova into foul trouble; while the Russians are deep, their other posts are not as experienced. The U.S. women benefit from having two small forwards and no true shooting guard in their starting lineup, as either Tamika Catchings or Sheryl Swoopes – who finished 2-1 in that order in Defensive Player of the Year voting last year in the WNBA – can take on the 6-0 Korstine one-on-one.
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Friday, August 27, 6:45 a.m.
Olympic Indoor Hall
TV: MSNBC
Five days ago, Australia and Brazil matched up in the Group A finale for both teams, and Australia won going away (84-66 final, including a 22-13 advantage in the fourth quarter). However, only Janeth Arcain and Helen Luz amongst the Brazilian starters played more than 25 minutes, while four of the five Australian starters played at least that much (and the fourth, center Suzy Batkovic, was limited by foul trouble).
It wouldn’t be unreasonable to suggest that Brazil wasn’t exactly unhappy about ending up third in Group A rather than second, because that position meant that if they could beat Spain, the Brazilians would face Australia and not the United States in the semifinals. Lo and behold, that’s exactly what happened, and Brazil has to be reasonably confident going into this game.
 Arcain is the second-leading scorer still alive in the Olympics, after Jackson. Mark Dadswell/Getty |
The Opals also boast the most formidable player in the Olympics thus far in one Lauren Elizabeth Jackson (as FIBA.com lists her). Jackson leads all scorers with 24.2 points per game and is shooting an incredible 56.7% from the field. When Jackson’s free throws and threes are added in, her true shooting percentage is an off-the-charts 63.2%. Can Brazil stop her? They couldn’t on Sunday, when Jackson had 24 points on 8-for-16 shooting, but the frontcourt of one-time Storm player Alessandra Santos de Oliveira and Cintia Dos Santos, the fourth pick of the 2000 Draft by Orlando, has the size and skill to contain Jackson, even if shutting her down is probably impossible.
At the same time, the Brazilian defense makes them the odd team out of the semifinals. None of the other three teams is allowing more than 65 points per game; Brazil gives up 70.7. Brazil was also the only team to truly be tested in the quarterfinals, beating Spain (which was the most difficult opponent any of the semifinalists faced) 67-63. Also, since opening the Olympics with a 66-point dismissal of Japan, Brazil has outscored its remaining opponents by just seven points. While Brazil wasn’t likely showing all of its cards against Russia and certainly not against Australia, that performance still raises the question of just how good Brazil really is.
As a counterpoint, the best reason not to count Brazil out is Arcain. The Houston Comets stalwart (who missed the first two months of this season to practice with her national team, but is expected to return after the Olympics) is averaging 19.7 points per game, the second-best mark after Jackson’s, and chipping in 5.7 rebounds for good measure. With WNBA veterans Luz (14.0 ppg) and Iziane Castro Marques (13.2 ppg) also in place, Brazil certainly does not lack for perimeter scoring. de Oliveira has provided the inside counterbalance on offense, averaging 11.3 points (and 9.0 rebounds).
With three capable ballhandlers in the starting five, Brazil leads the Olympics with 14.7 assists per game. However, rebounding has been something of a problem despite de Oliveira’s efforts; at 38.2 rebounds per game, Brazil is also the only semifinalist not above 40, despite playing a relatively fast pace.
Clearly, each team’s first order of business is to stop the opposing star. In both cases, that will be difficult, though Jackson’s size and athleticism make her a more difficult guard than Arcain. Brazil can win without Arcain having a big game, however; unless Penny Taylor comes up big, the Opals need Jackson. She hasn’t let them down so far in the Olympics.
