2007 Conference Semifinals Preview
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WNBA Analysis Archive
Get Storm Headlines!In terms of league-wide parity, the WNBA enjoyed one of its best seasons. Only two teams won more than 21 games, and in terms of point differential, only Detroit (+4.6) and New York (-2.6) are outside of the pack of playoff teams. That means the First Round of the WNBA Playoffs, which tips off tonight, offers at least three matchups that should be highly competitive and very entertaining. Here's a look at the other three series besides the Storm-Phoenix matchup.
1. Detroit vs. 4. New York
At least on paper, this is the one matchup that appears lopsided. The Shock cruised to the league's best record at 24-10 as well as the WNBA's best point differential; New York is the first sub-.500 team to make the postseason since ... Detroit, 16-18 in 2005.
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Liberty center Janel McCarville, who has to be considered a favorite for Most Improved Player honors, played a big role in the last three Detroit-New York matchups. In the two overtime games in Detroit, McCarville totaled 35 points and 21 rebounds, shooting 16-for-24 (66.7%) from the field. McCarville's consistently strong performances down the stretch - she's scored double-figures in her last 13 games - have demonstrated those efforts were no flukes.
New York finished the season strong with four wins in its last five games, including the victory over Detroit and a key win over Connecticut that helped hold off the Mystics for the final playoff spot in the East. Still, this is a team that got more mileage out of a 5-0 start behind unsustainably hot three-point shooting than it deserved to.
Detroit, meanwhile, is a team on a mission to repeat. The Shock mostly avoided the kind of regular-season missteps that sunk Detroit's 2004 repeat bid, but it was still clear this team has another gear available for the playoffs. The Liberty has the fortune of being the first team to see that focused Shock group in action, and the results may not be pretty.
Verdict: Detroit pulls out a close one at the Garden to take the decisive upper hand in the series, then cruises at the Palace of Auburn Hills to sweep into the Eastern Conference Finals.
2. Indiana vs. 3. Connecticut
... or, as I prefer to call it, the clash of the injured All-Star forwards. Hours before Game 1, the status of Indiana's Tamika Catchings and Connecticut's Asjha Jones for tonight and beyond remains up in the air. It seems like every other series involving the Sun in recent memory has had big injury issues, as the Hartford Courant reminded in this morning's preview.
Cachings' presence didn't seem to matter much in this year's season series, however. The Sun beat the Fever with Catchings (June 22 at Indiana and June 29 in Connecticut) and beat the Fever without Catchings (Aug. 4 in Connecticut and Aug. 15 at Indiana). The Sun has won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings with the Fever. Catchings wasn't very good against the Sun when she did play, shooting 7-for-26 (26.9%) from the field and averaging just 8.5 rebounds per game, though she contributed in other ways.
The Sun was able to singe an excellent Fever defense for 77.8 points per game (as compared to the league-low 69.7 ppg Indiana allowed over the course of the season) and 43.8% shooting (as compared to 40.2%). Katie Douglas and Nykesha Sales (who missed one of the four matchups) led the way, combining for 36.3 points per game against the Fever.
When Catchings went down with a partially torn plantar fascia on July 20, Indiana had a 5.5-game lead over Connecticut in the East standings with 13 games left to play. The Sun got as close as one game before the Fever finished with two straight wins and Connecticut ended the season with consecutive losses.
For a month's span, we saw the dominant Sun team that posted the WNBA's best regular-season record in both 2005 and 2006. From July 7 through Aug. 4, Connecticut went 10-1 to infuse hope into a heretofore disappointing campaign. Lindsay Whalen was a major key, hitting well over 50% from the field during the second half of the season.
Playing without the two-time defending Defensive Player of the Year, the Fever could figure to struggle on defense, but Head Coach Brian Winters put additional emphasis on that end of the floor and Indiana ended up leading the WNBA in Defensive Rating despite Catchings' absence. It was on offense that the Fever really struggled without Catchings, as other players were forced to create more of their own offense. That seemed to get better as time went on; after losing the first five games Catchings missed, Indiana finished the season with a 5-3 stretch - but two of those three losses came to the Sun.
Verdict: Barring something unforeseen involving Catchings, this series should be close - as were most of the Fever's head-to-head wins were in the regular season. Still, I see Connecticut grabbing momentum with a Game 1 home and pulling out a win in Game 2 at Conseco to advance.
2. San Antonio vs. 3. Sacramento
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Neither team goes into the playoffs with much momentum. The Silver Stars lost their last three games, including at Sacramento eight days ago. The Monarchs had a chance to steal home-court advantage after that win, but were blown off the court by Phoenix in a home-and-home set to finish the season.
Recent playoff history aside, Sacramento and San Antonio are probably the most similar teams matched up against each other. Both think defense first, but have defenses that - at least this season - have been more good than elite. While the Monarchs have a balanced offense without a go-to player and the Silver Stars boast MVP candidate Becky Hammon, both teams have offenses that are average to a little below.
For Sacramento to win this series, shutting down Hammon is a good way to start. She averaged 17.0 points and 7.0 assists in San Antonio's two head-to-head wins and 14.0 points and 4.5 assists in the two games won by the Silver Stars. The importance of keeping Hammon off the scoreboard was emphasized in the final meeting between the teams on Aug. 15. Hammon scored 19 points through three quarters as San Antonio earned a five-point lead, but was held scoreless and missed both of her shot attempts in the fourth quarter as the Silver Stars offense went dry and the Monarchs came from behind for an 81-74 victory.
Fortunately for Sacramento, there is no shortage of defenders to throw at Hammon. Ticha Penicheiro is one of the WNBA's best defenders on the ball, while Scholanda Robinson is excellent at providing pressure in short stretches and Chelsea Newton could provide a more physical presence at times.
The Monarchs have an incredible history of First Round success. Since losing 2-0 to Houston in 2000, Sacramento has advanced five straight trips to the postseason and each of the last four years (in 2002, the Monarchs fell short of the playoffs). Twice in that span, Sacramento won Game 3 on the road. However, the Monarchs have usually set up their lengthy playoff runs by finishing the season on a high note. That hasn't been true this year, as Sacramento started 12-6 but finished the season 7-9 over the last 16 games.
Verdict: This is a coin-flip series; I could easily see it going either way. When in doubt, however, I'm going with past history of success. After the home team wins each of the first two games, the Monarchs steal Game 3 at the AT&T Center to make another trip to the Western Conference Finals.
