Projecting the 2009 WNBA Season

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Kevin Pelton, stormbasketball.com | June 17, 2009

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Last fall, I unveiled SCHOENE, an NBA projection system that broke new ground in its ability to project the performance of both players and teams in the context of each other. This summer, I wanted to bring a similar projection system (as yet unnamed) to the WNBA. Alas, that proved difficult. SCHOENE is still very much a work in progress, and for several reasons projecting the WNBA using the same methods is much more challenging.

Underlying SCHOENE and its WNBA counterpart is the concept of player similarity. Using 13 statistical categories adjusted for league, the system picks out the players most statistically similar within six months either way of the player's age. For example, the closest comparison (on a scale up to 100) was Washington's Monique Currie with New York's Shameka Christon (from the 2007 season), with a similarity of 98.4. The idea is to create a group of similar players large enough to project a unique development path for each player. This is possible in the NBA, where we can draw from three decades' worth of data, but the WNBA offers just 12 years and fewer than half as many teams as the modern NBA, meaning the pool from which to draw is much smaller.

The other issue is that the WNBA has constantly been in flux the last decade-plus. The talent level has continually been on the rise, which has meant that veteran players have tended to decline quickly. As a result, the projections are generally quite pessimistic for experience players, particularly guards.

When it was all said and done (a process which, obviously, took longer than I'd hoped), the system came out with a couple of head-scratchers. Still, I think it's worth a look so that we can revisit at season's end and see if there was something there or whether it's simply too soon to project the WNBA using advanced statistics. Some lessons do, I think, make sense - most notably the projected league-wide parity, with no fewer than six teams projected to win 18 games. While the system is by its nature somewhat conservative, tightening the spread, I think that reflects what we're already starting to see with last year's lottery teams taking major strides forward.

I've separated the two conferences in order of projected finish.

Reading the Player Charts: For each player, I've projected their per-minute winning percentage and Wins Above Replacement Player from my WARP rating system. I've also listed their key traditional stats - points, rebounds and assists per game. Playing time is my best guess based on last season and the early numbers this year, though in every other way the projection is assumed to be done before the start of the season (for example, the Indiana Fever still has Yolanda Griffith).

The last four columns give information on the player's projected development. "Imp" is the percentage of comparable players who improved the following season, while "Break" is the percentage who broke out by improving at least 20 percent and "Dec" is the percentage who declined at least 20 percent. Lastly, I've included each player's best comparison at the same age.

Naturally, rookies do not receive a projection based on similar players. Instead, their stats are projected using the historical translation of players' NCAA stats to the WNBA adjusted for strength of schedule.

For more on the system, please see my introduction to SCHOENE.

1. Los Angeles Sparks

Projected Record: 20-14
Point Differential: +3.3
Offensive Rating: 100.2 (9th)
Defensive Rating: 95.0 (1st)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Kristi Harrower -0.2 0.389 5.0 2.8 2.9 0.70 0.20 0.00 Shannon Johnson Betty Lennox 1.0 0.459 13.5 3.8 2.2 0.25 0.13 0.25 Vickie Johnson Candace Parker 5.1 0.790 15.8 7.8 3.3 0.20 0.00 0.00 Lauren Jackson Tina Thompson 1.9 0.495 14.5 6.3 2.2 0.42 0.17 0.17 Jennifer Gillom Lisa Leslie 5.3 0.667 10.6 7.3 1.9 0.09 0.09 0.27 Taj McWilliams DeLisha Milton-Jones 1.1 0.463 9.7 5.2 1.9 0.33 0.00 0.17 Taj McWilliams Noelle Quinn -0.5 0.371 4.4 2.9 2.7 0.57 0.2 0.13 Tanisha Wright Vanessa Hayden 1.0 0.552 4.3 3.1 0.4 0.20 0.07 0.13 Asjha Jones Marie Ferdinand-Harris 0.0 0.407 3.7 1.3 0.6 0.43 0.14 0.10 Merlakia Jones Lindsay Wisdom-Hylton 0.0 0.417 1.3 1.1 0.3 ( R ) Shannon Bobbitt -0.3 0.325 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.55 0.27 0.18 Jamila Wideman

The numbers agree that, at least on paper, the Los Angeles Sparks have more talent than any team in the WNBA. What is more interesting is the distribution of that talent, a continuation of last season. Despite having a pair of MVPs in Lisa Leslie and Candace Parker, the Sparks won last year with a defense that was as good as any in the league, while their Offensive Rating was 10th. With age-related decline and the time Parker will miss offsetting the additions of Betty Lennox and Tina Thompson, L.A. is projected to move all the way up to ... 9th.

2. Seattle Storm

Projected Record: 18-16
Point Differential: +1.3
Offensive Rating: 101.0 (8th)
Defensive Rating: 98.6 (4th)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Sue Bird 1.5 0.473 11.5 2.4 5.0 0.33 0.00 0.20 Deanna Nolan Tanisha Wright -0.2 0.395 8.4 3.8 2.7 0.52 0.16 0.08 Dominique Canty Swin Cash 1.4 0.483 9.3 5.1 1.7 0.22 0.11 0.17 Sylvia Crawley Camille Little 0.8 0.481 5.7 2.9 0.8 0.48 0.15 0.07 Christi Thomas Lauren Jackson 7.0 0.745 18.5 7.6 1.3 0.36 0.00 0.09 Lisa Leslie Shannon Johnson 1.1 0.477 4.4 2.8 3.4 0.38 0.13 0.00 Dawn Staley Janell Burse 1.4 0.508 7.2 5.3 0.8 0.22 0.11 0.11 Sylvia Crawley Suzy Batkovic-Brown 1.7 0.593 5.1 3.2 1.0 0.53 0.12 0.06 Tammy Sutton-Brown Ashley Walker 0.3 0.443 4.4 2.6 0.5 ( R ) Katie Gearlds -0.5 0.332 3.7 1.0 0.6 0.45 0.18 0.09 Roneeka Hodges Ashley Robinson -0.2 0.340 0.3 1.0 0.2 - - - Markita Aldridge

The projection isn't exactly enthusiastic about a Storm offense that has ranked fifth in the WNBA on a per-possession basis thus far, but the overall combination makes the Storm a very legitimate contender.

3. Sacramento Monarchs

Projected Record: 18-16
Point Differential: +1.0
Offensive Rating: 107.2 (1st)
Defensive Rating: 105.5 (11th)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Ticha Penicheiro 3.3 0.597 7.7 4.0 5.6 0.25 0.25 0.00 Teresa Weatherspoon Kara Lawson 1.3 0.479 12.7 2.8 2.5 0.47 0.00 0.11 Gordana Grubin Nicole Powell 1.0 0.457 12.8 4.9 1.5 0.45 0.05 0.10 Bridget Pettis Rebekkah Brunson 3.0 0.590 10.7 7.4 0.4 0.53 0.12 0.12 Michelle Snow Laura Harper 1.4 0.506 6.8 5.3 0.6 0.50 0.20 0.10 Kayte Christensen Hamchétou Maïga-Ba 0.5 0.445 5.9 2.7 1.2 0.52 0.19 0.10 Sheri Sam Crystal Kelly 1.4 0.524 7.3 3.7 0.5 0.35 0.12 0.12 LaToya Thomas Scholanda Robinson -0.5 0.356 5.6 1.1 0.7 0.56 0.22 0.11 Markita Aldridge Courtney Paris 1.9 0.610 5.1 5.3 0.6 ( R ) Chelsea Newton -0.1 0.393 4.0 1.3 1.0 0.35 0.06 0.18 Kisha Ford DeMya Walker 0.8 0.520 5.4 3.2 0.9 0.25 0.08 0.17 Adrian Williams-Strong

Count the Monarchs offense coming out as the league's best as one of the projection's biggest surprises. Sacramento was ninth in Offensive Rating a year ago, and brings back essentially the same core. So why the projected improvement? First, Kara Lawson taking the minutes of A'Quonesia Franklin as the backup to Ticha Penicheiro. Second, Courtney Paris' translated college stats indicate stud performance, even in limited minutes. Lastly, a healthy DeMya Walker could also provide a boost to the offense. At the same time, those players don't help the defense, which is projected to slip all the way to 11th in a 13-team league, undermining the overall improvement.

4. Minnesota Lynx

Projected Record: 18-16
Point Differential: +0.7
Offensive Rating: 104.9 (2nd)
Defensive Rating: 104.1 (10th)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Kelly Miller -0.1 0.396 6.8 3.7 3.2 0.46 0.21 0.08 Tamecka Dixon Candice Wiggins 4.1 0.611 16.3 3.8 3.3 0.50 0.00 0.00 Tamecka Dixon Seimone Augustus 3.2 0.552 16.7 4.1 2.8 0.41 0.18 0.05 Cappie Pondexter Charde Houston 2.2 0.534 11.4 5.8 1.4 0.40 0.12 0.08 LaToya Thomas Nicky Anosike 5.1 0.689 8.4 6.6 1.7 0.40 0.07 0.07 Sophia Young Renee Montgomery -0.2 0.389 6.9 1.1 2.6 ( R ) Quanitra Hollingsworth -1.0 0.322 5.6 4.9 0.3 ( R ) LaToya Pringle 2.7 0.736 3.7 3.2 0.4 0.50 0.00 0.00 Michelle Snow Roneeka Hodges 0.1 0.426 3.1 0.9 0.5 0.54 0.15 0.23 Crystal Robinson Christi Thomas -0.2 0.372 1.4 2.0 0.3 0.47 0.07 0.07 Barbara Farris Rashanda McCants -0.6 0.298 2.6 1.6 0.5 ( R )

From a statistical perspective, the Lynx and the Monarchs are nearly twins, with Minnesota projecting as slightly less imbalanced in favor of offense. In this case, the projected Offensive Rating looks a little pessimistic a week and a half into that season, with Charde Houston outperforming even a very positive projection in a starting role. If either of the point guards plays better than projected, the Lynx could have one of the best offenses we've ever seen in the WNBA.

5. Phoenix Mercury

Projected Record: 16-18
Point Differential: -1.2
Offensive Rating: 104.4 (4th)
Defensive Rating: 106.0 (12th)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Temeka Johnson -0.9 0.355 5.6 3.2 5.0 0.31 0.00 0.31 Helen Darling Cappie Pondexter 2.4 0.519 18.9 3.7 3.9 0.38 0.04 0.21 Alana Beard Diana Taurasi 6.7 0.717 21.5 4.8 3.1 0.23 0.00 0.15 Mwadi Mabika DeWanna Bonner 1.6 0.500 10.5 5.8 0.9 ( R ) Tangela Smith 2.2 0.524 10.5 7.1 1.3 0.56 0.13 0.00 Chasity Melvin Nicole Ohlde 0.9 0.494 7.1 5.0 1.9 0.50 0.11 0.17 Kelly Schumacher Le'coe Willingham 0.6 0.447 7.2 4.9 0.8 0.41 0.05 0.23 Alisa Burras Kelly Mazzante -0.9 0.329 5.0 2.0 1.2 0.58 0.42 0.25 Vanessa Nygaard Ketia Swanier -0.2 0.373 2.1 1.3 1.3 0.73 0.45 0.09 Chandi Jones Brooke Smith 0.2 0.475 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.53 0.29 0.00 Amy Herrig

Continuing our all-offense/no-defense theme, the team that practically invented the concept. The Mercury's offense is projected to dip slightly this season because of the play of point guards Temeka Johnson and Ketia Swanier, which helps explain why Phoenix's offense is "just" fourth in the league - albeit only a hair behind second-place Minnesota. Phoenix should get a nice boost from rookie DeWanna Bonner, who projects as the league's third most valuable rookie, trailing only Paris and Angel McCoughtry.

6. San Antonio Silver Stars

Projected Record: 14-20
Point Differential: -2.6
Offensive Rating: 97.1 (12th)
Defensive Rating: 99.0 (5th)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Becky Hammon 3.3 0.565 15.5 2.6 4.6 0.21 0.00 0.07 Penny Toler Vickie Johnson 0.0 0.406 6.3 5.8 2.8 0.50 0.00 0.25 Adrienne Goodson Erin Perperoglou 0.1 0.412 6.6 3.3 1.6 0.21 0.00 0.21 Charlotte Smith Sophia Young 4.2 0.599 16.5 5.4 2.2 0.44 0.00 0.13 Swin Cash Ann Wauters 2.2 0.597 13.5 6.7 1.7 0.38 0.00 0.13 Astou Ndiaye-Diatta Ruth Riley 0.4 0.431 5.1 3.9 1.2 0.40 0.00 0.10 Kelly Schumacher Helen Darling -1.6 0.284 4.3 2.5 1.7 0.64 0.14 0.07 Tully Bevilaqua Belinda Snell 0.6 0.478 3.4 1.5 1.6 0.58 0.16 0.16 Coco Miller Shanna Crossley -0.5 0.324 5.1 0.9 0.5 0.25 0.00 0.08 Kelly Miller Katie Matera 0.8 0.567 3.3 2.0 0.1 0.44 0.44 0.11 Erika Desouza Edwige Lawson-Wade -0.2 0.355 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.40 0.00 0.30 Kedra Holland-Corn Megan Frazee -0.1 0.332 2.0 1.3 0.3 ( R )

If you've been reading along, you've probably wondered about the defending Western Conference champions. Without question, the biggest shocker offered by the projection system (even more than the top team in the East) is San Antonio in the West cellar and with the second-worst projection of any WNBA team. There are a few reasons why the system dislikes the Silver Stars so. First, San Antonio is highly dependent on position defense as opposed to steals or blocked shots, the things more easily captured within this system. (There is an adjustment for opponent shooting percentage, but in general it tends to fluctuate year to year. Elite teams like the Silver Stars are an exception to the rules.) Second, the system harshly penalizes the veteran San Antonio guards, particularly Becky Hammon. Are these reasons to suspect the Silver Stars will be able to repeat last year's performance? Perhaps. Are they reasons to anticipate a trip to the lottery? Nope.

1. Atlanta Dream

Projected Record: 20-14
Point Differential: +3.0
Offensive Rating: 102.5 (7th)
Defensive Rating: 97.7 (2nd)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Nikki Teasley -1.1 0.339 6.2 2.5 4.0 0.39 0.11 0.28 Elaine Powell Angel McCoughtry 2.2 0.534 13.1 5.6 1.2 ( R ) Chamique Holdsclaw 1.7 0.497 13.5 5.6 2.5 0.20 0.04 0.20 Rhonda Mapp Erika Desouza 4.8 0.711 9.4 6.6 0.7 0.25 0.00 0.17 Tammy Sutton-Brown Michelle Snow 3.2 0.596 10.5 6.7 1.3 0.52 0.04 0.04 Simone Edwards Sancho Lyttle 6.9 0.837 11.2 7.5 1.4 0.50 0.00 0.17 Rushia Brown Iziane Castro Marques -0.1 0.394 8.1 1.9 1.8 0.65 0.26 0.09 Kelly Miller Coco Miller -1.0 0.300 4.3 2.0 1.1 0.64 0.27 0.09 Merlakia Jones Shalee Lehning 0.2 0.437 2.4 1.7 2.2 ( R ) Jennifer Lacy -0.6 0.299 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.58 0.26 0.21 Deborah Carter Tamera Young -0.1 0.386 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.68 0.18 0.09 Lynn Pride

The second Atlanta Dream squad bears little resemblance to the team that went 4-30 a year ago. The Dream got a massive infusion of talent by signing Michelle Snow, trading for Chamique Holdsclaw and drafting Sancho Lyttle in the Expansion Draft and McCoughtry with the top pick of the WNBA Draft. The system sees Atlanta getting a huge boost from those newcomers as well as a healthy Erika Desouza. Desouza, Lyttle and Snow all offer great rebounding and shot-blocking up front, while McCoughtry is a major ballhawk, which is why the Dream is projected to improve from one of the worst defenses in league history all the way to second in the league in D. That's more than a bit optimistic and plays to what the projection system likes, but Atlanta should be far more competitive in year two.

2. Detroit Shock

Projected Record: 19-15
Point Differential: +2.4
Offensive Rating: 103.2 (5th)
Defensive Rating: 99.1 (5th)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Katie Smith 0.5 0.427 12.2 2.9 3.3 0.38 0.00 0.13 Vickie Johnson Deanna Nolan 2.3 0.504 13.8 3.7 4.4 0.25 0.00 0.25 Vickie Johnson Shavonte Zellous -0.7 0.333 6.7 2.0 1.0 ( R ) Cheryl Ford 2.8 0.624 9.3 7.9 0.9 0.59 0.18 0.12 Chasity Melvin Taj McWilliams 2.9 0.578 8.3 5.8 1.3 0.40 0.40 0.40 Yolanda Griffith Plenette Pierson 4.9 0.721 11.4 4.8 2.1 0.45 0.10 0.20 Lisa Leslie Alexis Hornbuckle 1.7 0.518 5.8 3.6 1.9 0.20 0.20 0.20 Nykesha Sales Kara Braxton 1.5 0.553 8.5 4.9 0.9 0.42 0.11 0.16 Astou Ndiaye-Diatta Olayinka Sanni 0.0 0.405 3.6 2.2 0.2 0.60 0.33 0.13 Tamika Whitmore Kristin Haynie 0.0 0.397 2.0 1.1 1.5 0.60 0.10 0.10 Helen Darling Barbara Farris -0.4 0.326 1.7 1.8 0.1 0.44 0.11 0.11 Sue Wicks

This projection may seem a bit pessimistic for a team that has won two of the last three WNBA championships, but keep in mind that Detroit was hardly dominant in the regular season last year, tying Seattle for the league's second-best record. The Shock is projected to continue to be good but not elite at either end of the floor, a balanced formula that has translated in the postseason. What could undermine that plan is injuries, including the loss of Plenette Pierson for an extended period with a shoulder injury. Pierson was projected to be Detroit's most valuable player coming off the bench.

3. New York Liberty

Projected Record: 18-16
Point Differential: +0.9
Offensive Rating: 102.7 (6th)
Defensive Rating: 101.0 (8th)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Loree Moore -0.5 0.377 4.6 3.3 3.8 0.56 0.13 0.25 Helen Darling Essence Carson 0.3 0.425 7.2 2.6 1.1 0.83 0.42 0.08 Dominique Canty Shameka Christon 2.9 0.550 15.3 3.0 1.8 0.60 0.10 0.10 Mwadi Mabika Cathrine Kraayeveld 1.8 0.505 8.8 5.7 1.4 0.45 0.13 0.13 Eva Nemcova Janel McCarville 4.4 0.658 12.8 5.1 2.1 0.24 0.00 0.12 DeLisha Milton-Jones Tiffany Jackson 2.7 0.590 9.2 6.3 1.4 0.56 0.08 0.00 Rebekkah Brunson Leilani Mitchell 0.8 0.473 4.5 2.3 3.3 0.47 0.07 0.13 Kristi Harrower Sidney Spencer 0.5 0.457 5.7 2.1 0.6 0.50 0.33 0.06 Deanna Jackson Erlana Larkins 0.5 0.480 3.8 2.3 0.7 0.44 0.22 0.11 Tamika Whitmore Ashley Battle 0.2 0.432 3.3 1.6 0.8 0.57 0.11 0.18 Svetlana Abrosimova Kia Vaughn -0.5 0.324 2.4 2.2 0.2 ( R )

The young Liberty hopes to take the next step after testing the Shock in the postseason each of the last two years, but the projection system does not see the gap closing significantly. New York could help itself by giving plenty of playing time to Tiffany Jackson, whose strong sophomore campaign was most similar to a young Rebekkah Brunson.

4. Connecticut Sun

Projected Record: 18-16
Point Differential: +0.8
Offensive Rating: 104.6 (4th)
Defensive Rating: 103.0 (9th)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Lindsay Whalen 4.1 0.625 12.6 4.9 5.2 0.30 0.00 0.20 Shannon Johnson Kerri Gardin 0.6 0.446 5.2 4.3 1.4 0.58 0.31 0.08 Ashley Battle Asjha Jones 3.4 0.579 15.1 5.7 2.3 0.41 0.00 0.12 Rhonda Mapp Tamika Whitmore -0.5 0.379 11.8 4.4 1.5 0.42 0.11 0.05 Katie Smith Sandrine Gruda 1.2 0.507 7.5 4.4 1.2 0.43 0.00 0.00 Tangela Smith Erin Phillips 3.2 0.598 8.6 3.0 3.8 0.55 0.15 0.15 Stephanie White Barbara Turner 1.5 0.496 9.5 4.1 2.2 0.29 0.14 0.05 Katie Douglas Amber Holt 0.0 0.409 7.4 3.6 2.3 0.50 0.23 0.18 Deanna Jackson Kiesha Brown -0.3 0.376 4.1 1.6 1.8 0.47 0.13 0.13 Tamecka Dixon Chante Black -0.3 0.367 3.6 2.8 0.4 ( R ) Kristi Cirone 0.0 0.439 1.9 0.4 0.6 ( R )

Connecticut's projection suffers because the Sun has the more prominent of the two foreign players who lack projections, Latvian Anete Jekabsone-Zogota. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jekabsone-Zogota emerge as Connecticut's starter at the two when she arrives following Euro '09. This is tempered slightly by the fact that the projection for Aussie guard Erin Phillips is so positive, but Jekabsone-Zogota could siphon some minutes from less productive Kerri Gardin and (currently injured) Amber Holt.

5. Chicago Sky

Projected Record: 18-16
Point Differential: +0.6
Offensive Rating: 99.8 (10th)
Defensive Rating: 98.3 (3rd)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Dominique Canty 0.6 0.438 7.3 2.6 4.1 0.39 0.11 0.06 Michelle Edwards Jia Perkins 4.5 0.614 16.8 4.2 2.7 0.55 0.00 0.09 Deanna Nolan Brooke Wyckoff -0.8 0.344 2.9 2.7 1.5 0.71 0.43 0.00 Kristen Rasmussen Candice Dupree 6.0 0.685 16.2 7.7 2.3 0.52 0.20 0.00 Swin Cash Sylvia Fowles 4.8 0.677 10.5 8.3 0.5 0.60 0.10 0.10 Tangela Smith Armintie Price 0.6 0.443 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.42 0.16 0.16 Dominique Canty Shyra Ely -0.4 0.372 5.7 4.2 0.8 0.63 0.32 0.11 Slobodanka Tuvic Kristi Tolliver -0.7 0.335 5.3 1.0 1.6 ( R ) Erin Thorn -1.0 0.284 2.9 0.7 1.1 0.60 0.10 0.10 Stacey Dales K.B. Sharp -0.5 0.313 1.5 0.6 0.7 0.73 0.36 0.09 Kristi Harrower

Chicago's trio of Candice Dupree, Sylvia Fowles and Jia Perkins rates better than any other threesome in the league. The issue is the Sky's depth; no one else on the roster rates as worth a full win, and the end of the bench will struggle to reach replacement level. I do expect Chicago to be more balanced than the projection would indicate. Because of the Sky's shot-blocking, led by Fowles, the team comes out third in the league in blocks. Unlike other top shot-blockers, Chicago doesn't project to put opponents on the free throw line particularly frequently.

6. Indiana Fever

Projected Record: 15-19
Point Differential: -1.6
Offensive Rating: 99.5 (11th)
Defensive Rating: 100.9 (7th)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Briann January 0.1 0.413 7.9 2.0 3.5 ( R ) Katie Douglas 1.3 0.462 14.0 4.0 3.1 0.33 0.00 0.29 Sophia Witherspoon Tamika Catchings 4.3 0.634 13.1 6.1 3.6 0.31 0.00 0.23 Nykesha Sales Ebony Hoffman 3.3 0.568 10.8 7.9 1.9 0.47 0.09 0.03 Delisha Milton-Jones Tammy Sutton-Brown 2.8 0.554 11.8 6.0 0.4 0.31 0.08 0.15 Kamila Vodichkova Tully Bevilaqua -1.2 0.322 4.4 1.7 1.4 0.09 0.09 0.27 Ruthie Bolton Yolanda Griffith 1.5 0.537 4.6 5.2 0.7 0.00 0.00 0.00 Lynette Woodard Tamecka Dixon -0.6 0.344 5.2 1.9 1.1 0.47 0.20 0.27 Michelle Edwards Khadijah Whittington 0.2 0.464 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.75 0.31 0.13 Maylana Martin Christina Wirth -0.2 0.335 1.8 0.8 0.3 ( R ) Erica White -0.1 0.379 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.62 0.38 0.08 Helen Darling

That Indiana would finish 11th in Offensive Rating I can believe. That the Fever will be barely above average at the other end is more difficult to accept. Indiana has consistently been amongst the league's top defenses, and added two talented defenders in Yolanda Griffith (part of this projection, though she will miss the remainder of the season after tearing her Achilles) and rookie Briann January. Griffith's loss hurts a bench that wasn't especially deep in the first place.

7. Washington Mystics

Projected Record: 9-25
Point Differential: -7.6
Offensive Rating: 97.1 (12th)
Defensive Rating: 106.9 (13th)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp Lindsey Harding -0.5 0.379 8.5 3.0 3.9 0.58 0.26 0.05 Tanisha Wright Alana Beard 1.7 0.486 14.7 3.3 3.4 0.55 0.10 0.05 Deanna Nolan Marisa Coleman 1.0 0.466 9.1 4.6 2.0 ( R ) Nakia Sanford -1.3 0.310 5.0 4.3 1.0 0.14 0.00 0.14 Sue Wicks Chasity Melvin 1.5 0.497 7.8 4.8 1.6 0.21 0.00 0.14 Kamila Vodichkova Crystal Langhorne 0.3 0.420 7.1 6.0 0.7 0.20 0.00 0.10 Sancho Lyttle Monique Currie 0.4 0.432 8.1 2.8 1.7 0.57 0.13 0.10 Shameka Christon Tasha Humphrey 1.0 0.509 6.6 3.1 1.1 0.39 0.09 0.09 Asjha Jones Matee Ajavon 0.4 0.441 6.3 1.5 1.7 0.78 0.43 0.09 Dominique Canty Nikki Blue -0.3 0.313 0.9 0.3 0.7 0.62 0.38 0.08 Kristin Haynie

Here's a projection that has a chance to be proven wrong in short order. At 3-0, the Mystics are the WNBA's last remaining undefeated team and have already won a third as many games as projected. Nakia Sanford is one reason for optimism in Washington; 2008 was probably something of a fluke season for her, yet Sanford is projected to continue to go backwards instead of recovering. Also, if Lindsey Harding plays as she has early in the season, the Mystics' offense has a chance to dramatically outpace the projection.

Projected League Leaders

Player Team WARP Lauren Jackson sea 7.0 Sancho Lyttle atl 6.9 Diana Taurasi pho 6.7 Candice Dupree chi 6.0 Lisa Leslie las 5.3

Player Team PPG Diana Taurasi pho 21.5 Cappie Pondexter pho 18.9 Lauren Jackson sea 18.5 Jia Perkins chi 16.8 Seimone Augustus min 16.7

Player Team RPG Sancho Lyttle atl 8.0 Cheryl Ford det 8.0 Sylvia Fowles chi 7.9 Candace Parker las 7.6 Lauren Jackson sea 7.5

Player Team APG Ticha Penicheiro sac 5.6 Lindsay Whalen con 5.2 Temeka Johnson pho 5.0 Sue Bird sea 5.0 Becky Hammon sas 4.6