2009 Conference Finals Preview
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WNBA Analysis Archive
Get Storm Headlines!As the WNBA's conference finals tip off today, we have a pair of matchups that parallel each other. In both conferences, the top seed advanced while the third seed pulled off a minor upset (or not even that, given the number of experts who correctly predicted both series) to reach the conference finals. Phoenix and Indiana have home-court advantage and have been the better teams over the course of the season, but Los Angeles and Detroit have been playing their best basketball late in the season and have experience on their side. That should make for two fascinating conference finals.
West - 1. Phoenix vs. 3. Los Angeles
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Stepping away from the results and looking at the style of play in those games, I do think that the Mercury is a bad matchup for Los Angeles. The Sparks played one of the league's slower paces and were more than happy to slog it out in the half-court with the Storm during the Western Conference Semifinals. L.A. actually ranked last in the league in fast-break points (per Paul Swanson) while tying with New York for the worst differential on the break. The Sparks have also struggled the last two years against Atlanta, the only other WNBA team that plays at a pace remotely comparable to the Mercury's.
Usually, we'd describe such a matchup as a clash of contrasting styles and say that what pace the teams ended up playing at is the key, but Phoenix is so single-minded in its devotion to up-tempo basketball that it is not really possible to take the Mercury out of its favored pace. Typically, the best hope for opponents is to be able to take advantage of a porous Phoenix defense and outscore the Mercury in a shootout. That's what San Antonio was able to do for three-plus quarters of Monday's deciding Game 3, but ultimately Phoenix's depth was too much for the Silver Stars.
During the opening round, Sparks Head Coach Michael Cooper gave about equal time to his supersized starting five, which includes DeLisha Milton-Jones and Tina Thompson on the wing, and a slightly more traditional unit with Betty Lennox on the floor. In this series, it may be hard to get away with Milton-Jones playing a lot of guard. As athletic as she is, Milton-Jones will be hard-pressed to chase Cappie Pondexter around. Her more ideal matchup is Taurasi, but if Milton-Jones and Thompson are on the wing, that means Thompson defending either Pondexter or Temeka Johnson. That's not going to happen.
A heavy dose of Lennox certainly isn't all bad for the Sparks. She's the team's best outside shooter, and her scoring punch was critical for L.A., especially in Game 2 - a game which might have gone differently had Lennox seen any action during the Storm's third-quarter run. However, even if Thompson remains at small forward, putting Lennox on the floor reduces the advantage the Sparks will hold on the glass.
The mismatches aren't limited to the perimeter. The ability of Phoenix posts DeWanna Bonner, Tangela Smith and Penny Taylor to shoot the three will pull their L.A. counterparts away from the basket. While Leslie is perfectly capable of defending outside, the Sparks defense is at its best when Leslie is in the paint protecting the rim. When the starting lineups are on the floor, Cooper would be wise to assign Leslie to Le'Coe Willingham so she has more freedom to offer help defense. As soon as Bonner or Taylor checks in for Willingham, however, L.A. will not have that luxury.
When the Sparks have the ball, expect to see a heavy dose of zone defense from Phoenix, and probably the rover D that will allow Taurasi to aggressively double L.A.'s post players. In general, it's preferable to make the Sparks hit outside shots. Los Angeles made a league-low 29.7 percent of its three-pointers, but was effective from beyond the arc in the series against the Storm, hitting threes at a 42.9 percent clip. The Sparks also dissuaded Seattle from playing zone by owning the offensive glass. The Mercury is very poor in terms of defensive rebounding, so second chances could be L.A.'s best offense.
While the Sparks put together a solid offensive series and played their most consistent basketball of the season in Game 3, ultimately their win over the Storm relied on slowing down a short-handed offense. Los Angeles will have to be more prolific on offense in this series, because there's no stopping the Phoenix attack. The Sparks have more than enough talent that a series victory would be no upset, but this series reminds me of 2006, the last time L.A. had to move a game in the conference finals. The Sparks will play tonight at UCLA's Pauley Pavilion, hampering their home-court advantage. I see the Mercury stealing Game 1 on the road, then coming back home to complete the sweep.
East - 1. Indiana vs. 3. Detroit
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The question is whether this is also the weakest of the Shock teams over the last four years. That is surely the case in terms of regular-season performance. Detroit was on the outside of the playoff chase looking in as recently as the start of the month before finishing the season with nine wins over the last 11 games. That hot streak carried over into the postseason, where the Shock dispatched of a young Atlanta squad in a two-game sweep.
Stunningly, Detroit has caught fire mostly without veteran guard Katie Smith, the team's lone All-Star representative. Smith hasn't played since Aug. 27 because of a bulging disc in her back. She will not play in Game 1 and is unlikely to return at all in this series. Deanna Nolan has helped fill the void with outstanding play during the Shock's run, while rookie Shavonte Zellous has also picked up her play. In Detroit's sweep of the Dream, Nolan, Zellous and Alexis Hornbuckle (Smith's replacement in the starting lineup) combined to average 55.0 points, 13.0 rebounds and 12.5 assists per game as the Shock averaged 94.0 points as a team.
Detroit will find the going much harder on offense in this series. Indiana was the WNBA's top defensive team and boasts elite defenders at every perimeter position. If the Shock has an advantage, it is the team's size in the backcourt. Nolan is the only Detroit player shorter than 5-10, and her athleticism allows her to play bigger than her listed 5-9 height. Hornbuckle and Zellous are physical players, while 5-11 Nikki Teasley is very big for a point guard. Fever point guards Tully Bevilaqua and Briann January are 5-7 and 5-8, respectively, and Lin Dunn likes to use the two of them together in the backcourt for extended stretches. That might be difficult to do in this series.
The matchups look better from Indiana's perspective when its starting lineup is on the floor. The 6-0 Katie Douglas and the 6-1 Catchings are more than capable of dealing with the Shock's perimeter players, and because Detroit tends to be undersized at the small forward position Catchings will have opportunities in the post.
Up front, look for a war in the paint. Ebony Hoffman made no friends in Detroit with her takedown of Plenette Pierson in last year's playoff matchup that started the shoulder woes that forced Pierson to have season-ending surgery after the opening game. That play was emblematic of the physical style both of these teams prefer up front. If Hoffman and Tammy Sutton-Brown can neutralize the Shock's trio of Kara Braxton, Cheryl Ford and Taj McWilliams-Franklin, that will leave this series to be decided on the perimeter. That being the case, the advantage belongs to Indiana.
As much press as Nolan has gotten for her recent play, she still has not been better than Catchings. Healthy and playing her best basketball since 2007, when injuries cost her a shot at MVP, Catchings delivered a classic performance in an overtime win over Washington on Saturday that ensured the Fever would not have to play a deciding third game in the first round while Detroit rested. All Catchings contributed was 24 points, 16 rebounds, five assists, four steals and four blocks.
If Indiana is ever to beat the Shock, this looks like the year. This is the first of the four series where the Fever has had home-court advantage. Indiana is healthy and playing good basketball. Detroit will not be easy to knock off, but look for the Fever to prevail in three hard-fought games.
