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Insider Preview - Storm vs. Phoenix

HEAD-TO-HEAD
19-13 RECORD 22-10
L-2 STREAK W-2
3-2 LAST 5 4-1
74.9 PF 93.3
99.8 Off. Eff. 110.1
72.8 PA 89.6
96.9 Def. Eff. 106.0
31.9 RPG 35.1
.495 Reb % .467
72.8 Pace 83.7
18.2 Exp. Wins 20.0
Storm (19-13) vs. Phoenix (22-10)
Thursday, Sept. 10, 7:00 p.m.
KeyArena
Radio: 1150 AM KKNW
LiveAccess: Live Video
Buy Tickets:
Promotion: Fan Appreciation Night

Kevin Pelton, stormbasketball.com


On paper, tonight's visit by the Phoenix Mercury to KeyArena is a potential playoff preview. On Saturday, both the Mercury and the Seattle Storm locked up their seeds for the Western Conference Playoffs. Phoenix will have the No. 1 overall seed and home-court advantage at least through the Western Conference Finals, while the Storm will take the No. 2 seed and host at least the first round. The teams could potentially square off in the conference finals after battling each other for position all year long.

If that matchup does ultimately materialize, it will look little like tonight's game because the Storm is playing without several players. Starters Sue Bird (sore neck), Swin Cash (at home following her grandmother's passing) and Lauren Jackson (who has a stress fracture in her lower back) and reserve Katie Gearlds (returning from a torn PCL) are all out tonight. While the status of Gearlds and Jackson for the postseason is uncertain, both Bird and Cash are expected back in the lineup.

That leaves the Storm playing with some makeshift lineups tonight and Saturday in San Antonio, the last two games of the regular season. The Storm signed guard A'Quonesia Franklin and forward La'Tangela Atkinson using the WNBA's roster-hardship exception. Because both players were in training camp with the Storm, they should be ready to step into the lineup and play minutes right away - which they will have to. The team must also find a replacement for Cash in the starting lineup, with the possibility that Camille Little could swing out to small forward for the next two games.

Fortunately, the next two games hold no meaning for the Storm in terms of the postseason. While Head Coach Brian Agler wants his team to play to win, the Storm has the bigger picture in mind. Phoenix still has something to play for - home-court advantage in a potential WNBA Finals matchup against Indiana. The two teams are currently tied at 22-10, but the Mercury would win the tiebreaker by virtue of a superior record against the opposing conference.

Phoenix is thinking big in trying to recapture the WNBA championship the team won in 2007 before slipping last year and missing the postseason. Remarkably, this is just the second time since 2000 that the Mercury has made the playoffs - but both times, the team has been the top seed in the West, and last time Phoenix parlayed it into a title.

In some ways, this year's Mercury squad may be more dangerous than the 2007 incarnation. Phoenix is in fact better on offense, averaging a league-high 110.4 points per 100 possessions. The Mercury has a chance to set an all-time WNBA record for most potent offense; currently, the team has a slight lead over the 2000 Houston Comets, who had a 110.2 Offensive Rating. Adjusting for the current offensive environment drops Phoenix below the 1998 Comets and 2001 Los Angeles Sparks, but this is still the best offense the Mercury has had since adopting "Paulball" under former coach Paul Westhead, whose legacy has been maintained by his protégé and replacement, Corey Gaines.

As compared to previous teams, the big difference for Phoenix this year is depth. The Mercury missed All-Star forward Penny Taylor, a key part of the championship team, when she sat out all of 2008 to rest and spend time at home and then missed the first half of this season following ankle surgery. However, that did allow Phoenix to develop other potent options. Le'Coe Willingham established herself as the starter at power forward, a role she maintains, while rookie DeWanna Bonner emerged this season as one of the league's top reserves. Now that the Mercury has Taylor back, even though she is still not at 100 percent, Phoenix goes seven-deep in terms of starting-caliber players. Six Mercury players average double-figure scoring, while starting point guard Temeka Johnson is not far behind at 9.5 ppg.

If Phoenix does win another championship, it will be a mortal wound to the belief that defense wins championships in the WNBA. While the Mercury was certainly offensive-minded in 2007, that team succeeded in no small part because it was Phoenix's best defensive squad of the last four years. The Mercury has missed Taylor, an underrated defender who more than held her own against bigger post players. Phoenix has had the league's worst Defensive Rating throughout the season, though this year's Mercury squad too is capable of stringing together important stops in the final minutes.

KEY MATCHUP
The makeshift Storm will lean heavily on Tanisha Wright to create offense. Wright scored 20 points on Saturday in Minnesota, the fourth time this season she has reached that mark. If Wright can get in the paint off the dribble, she can create shots either for herself or her teammates. Wright will also carry a heavy load at the defensive end, matching up with Phoenix's Cappie Pondexter. Pondexter is capping off a terrific season that has seen her rank in the WNBA's top three in both scoring (19.3 ppg, second) and assists (5.0 apg, third). That's an unprecedented feat in league history; only a handful of players (including Pondexter's teammate Diana Taurasi) have ranked in the top five in both categories.

LAST TIME
The extra session belonged to the visiting Mercury when these teams went to overtime on Aug. 4 at KeyArena. Just to reach that point, the Storm needed to come back from a six-point deficit with 1:27 to play. Twice in that span, the Storm got tying three-pointers - first from Little and then, with 5.6 seconds to play, from Bird. However, the comeback effort took a toll on the Storm, playing overtime for the third time in as many home games. Phoenix started overtime with seven straight points, then used another 7-0 run to complete a 101-90 win. All five Storm starters scored double-figures, but it was Wright who came up biggest, scoring 21 of her career-high 25 points before halftime and handing out seven assists.

INJURIES
Storm - Guard Sue Bird (sore neck), forwards Swin Cash (personal reasons) and Katie Gearlds (torn left posterior cruciate ligament) and center Lauren Jackson (sore lower back) are out.

Phoenix - None.