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Making the Case For Lauren Jackson

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Kevin Pelton, storm.wnba.com | August 26, 2005
People will at times make up some very complex rationales as to why they choose who they choose for Most Valuable Player, but I've never been interested in those kinds of esoteric explanations. To me, the best player is the most valuable, and I have a hard time seeing how that could not be the case.

Despite my well-earned reputation as a stat geek, best player isn't necessarily synonymous with best statistics. The statistics we keep - particularly so in the WNBA, because of the absence of an equivalent to uber-stat site 82games.com - tell us very little about a player's defense or her impact on and off the court.


"To me, it does start with the statistics. And Lauren's are fantastic."
Jeff Reinking/NBAE/Getty
Individual statistics also don't always correlate particularly well to team performance. Like most everyone else, I would have a hard time casting my imaginary MVP vote for a player on a bad team. (Which I don't at all find contradictory to advocating passionately for Lauren Jackson two years ago, when the Storm missed the playoffs. As I argued then, while the Storm was home for the postseason, the team had an identical record to three playoff teams and a better one than a fourth, while the Storm's point differential was second-best in the WNBA. That was clearly no bad team, just an unlucky one.)

Probably the single argument about MVP I can't stand the most is, "You've got to see them play every day." It's not that I don't think there are valuable insights to be gleaned from watching a player on a day-in, day-out basis. On the contrary, I'm confident there are tons of things I know about the Storm I don't about other teams. But that's precisely my point. I can never use that as a basis of comparison, because the Storm is the only team I watch play regularly in person. Who knows what kind of brilliance I'm missing from Sheryl Swoopes and Tamika Catchings and Yolanda Griffith and Taj McWilliams-Franklin and Nykesha Sales, to name a handful.

So why, if I had a vote, would I vote for Lauren Jackson?

To me, it does start with the statistics. And Lauren's are fantastic. One of the strongest points in Lauren's favor, I think, is her domination of the WNBA's Efficiency ratings. It's been pointed out that these ratings are biased towards post players, and that's completely true. (For example, the top-rated guard in Efficiency per 40 minutes ranks 25th. Connecticut center Margo Dydek ranks second in the league, and she didn't make the All-Star team.)

A better measure might be PER, the most widely used rating in the NBA and one that is more fair to perimeter players. Jackson rates as the WNBA's top player with a 28.0 rating, putting her in the category creator John Hollinger describes as "Strong MVP Candidate." Swoopes is next with a relatively distant rating of 25.5. Catchings is third at 24.2, and Griffith (24.1) and McWilliams-Franklin (23.6) round out the top five.

If Jackson were a bad defender, or the Storm a bad team, I could certainly see Swoopes making up that distance. But neither of these is the case.

Storm Coach Anne Donovan has frequently gone on record saying that defense is the most underrated part of Jackson's game, particularly this season. Jackson's five blocks yesterday against Sacramento improved her season average to better than two per game, fourth in the league yet you rarely hear about this part of Jackson's game. Like all truly great shot blockers, Jackson alters many more shots than she blocks. Tracking this for last night's game, I have her as defending on nine and a half shots the Monarchs missed (splitting credit between two players accounts for the half).

"Statistically, if she's not doing something on the stat sheet, she's playing defense like nobody else," said Donovan, "so to me she's an MVP night in and night out."

Catchings gets credit for her versatility, and rightfully so. Few players at any level of basketball do so much without having to score. But Jackson averages 1.4 more rebounds and 1.5 more blocks than Catchings in addition to her scoring advantage, differences that shouldn't be quickly written off.

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While the other top candidates' teams have all had spectacular seasons, what the Storm has done in 2005 is nothing short of remarkable. Despite losing three key contributors, the Storm has clinched home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs and has the opportunity on Saturday to tie the franchise record in wins, last season's 20. That's testament not only to Jackson's work on the court, but also her developing leadership off of it.

"I think she's come so far, from a player who was a little bit reluctant to take the leadership title as the season started," said Donovan. "All the missing leaders - Sheri (Sam), Kamila (Vodichkova) and Tully (Bevilaqua), but she's thinking, 'I'm only 24,' so there's a reluctance there to embrace that. In particular, when Sue went out, she had to step up and really did and really led this team in Sue's absence. Throughout, she's been so consistent."

If Jackson does not win MVP, I suspect a big reason will be that her season hasn't been special relative to what she has done the last three years, while Swoopes has the better story - returning to MVP form at an age where many people - myself admittedly included - figured those days were done for her.

"I think people take Lauren for granted," Donovan said last week. "They get used to what she does.

"(Swoopes) is remarkable, she's having a fantastic year, but I think if she had a good year last year, I don't know if she'd be in the same category."

It's only natural to do this. Even I admitted during last night's game that Jackson's 2003 season - a 20-20 game, shooting 17-for-23 from the field - was magical, something that will be hard to repeat. In its own way, however, this season has been brilliant. Jackson has been challenged more than she was the last two seasons, starting with off-season ankle surgery that left her rusty at the beginning of the year. Jackson fought through it and continued to play at MVP level by focusing on rebounding and defense.

When the hype is boiled away, the question comes down to this: Who was the best player in the WNBA in 2005? To this observer, the answer is clearly Lauren Jackson.


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