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Jackson’s Historic Statistical Season

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Kevin Pelton, storm.wnba.com | August 14, 2006
When the Seattle Storm decided to rest star forward Lauren Jackson for the final two games of the 2006 regular season, she put a close to one of the more remarkable statistical seasons in WNBA history. While Jackson's elite marks may not be as obvious as Diana Taurasi's WNBA-record scoring average (25.3 points per game), a little digging and some advanced statistical analysis reveals some eye-popping numbers.

Let's start with one of my personal favorites, True Shooting Percentage. True Shooting Percentage combines all a player's shooting - two-pointers, 3-pointers and free throws - into one mark which represents what her field-goal percentage would be if she only took two-point shots. The formula is points/(2*fga + .88*fta).The bottom line is that the True Shooting Percentage leaderboard reflects the league's most efficient shooters. Jackson's 65.9% mark not only led the WNBA this season (Sacramento's Erin Buescher, at 60.1%, was the only other player above 60%), it's one of the best True Shooting Percentages in the history of the WNBA (minimum 100 true shot attempts):

TRUE SHOOTING PERCENTAGE
Player
Team
Year
PPG
TS%
Becky Hammon
New York
2003
14.7
77.1%
Jennifer Azzi
Detroit
1999
10.8
66.6%
Alisa Burras
Portland
2002
8.7
66.5%
Lauren Jackson
Seattle
2006
19.5
65.9%
Tamika Williams
Minnesota
2003
8.9
64.8%

As you can see, Jackson's efficiency is all the more remarkable because she is a focal point of the Storm's offense and regularly double- and triple-teamed. Record-holder Becky Hammon is the only other member of the leaderboard who was a go-to player on her team.

Jackson's season has also been marked by shooting versatility. Before a late-season slump from downtown, Jackson was in the WNBA's top 10 in all three shooting percentage statistics (field goal, 3 point, free throw). David DuPree of USA Today uses a measure called "total shooting percentage" to add up a player's percentages in all three categories. Only one player, Phoenix's Brandy Reed in 2000, has ever shot better than 50% from the field, 40% from 3-point range and 90% from the free-throw line. Jackson finished at 53.5% from the field, 37.7% on 3s (40.8% as of Aug. 1) and 89.9% on free throws. That adds to a total shooting percentage of 1811, again one of the best marks in WNBA history (minimum 100 fga, 25 3pa, 25 fta):

TOTAL SHOOTING PERCENTAGE
Player
Team
Year
PPG
TotS%
Jennifer Azzi
Detroit
1999
10.8
1.858
Elena Baranova
New York
2004
11.6
1.849
Jennifer Azzi
Utah
2001
8.6
1.838
Brandy Reed
Phoenix
2000
19.0
1.827
Eva Nemcova
Cleveland
1998
12.0
1.813
Lauren Jackson
Seattle
2006
19.5
1.811

Just five players, including Jackson and two appearances for Jennifer Azzi, have topped a 1.800 total shooting percentage.

It's not just shooting that Jackson excels at. She's also one of the league's best at taking care of the basketball, finishing 76th in the WNBA in turnovers per game. Jackson posted one of the league's lowest turnover rates (turnovers divided by possessions used - fga + (.44*fta) + to - multiplied by 100). If we limit the leaderboard to players who averaged 15 points per game to eliminate catch-and-shoot-type specialists, a couple of trends emerge:

LOW TURNOVER RATES, HIGH SCORERS
Player
Team
Year
TORate
Cappie Pondexter
Phoenix
2006
7.4
Lauren Jackson
Seattle
2006
8.3
Lauren Jackson
Seattle
2002
8.6
Seimone Augustus
Minnesota
2006
9.3
Diana Taurasi
Phoenix
2006
9.6
Lauren Jackson
Seattle
2005
10.0
Lauren Jackson
Seattle
2001
10.2
Lauren Jackson
Seattle
2003
10.2

It is noteworthy that four of the top five performances on this leaderboard have occurred in 2006. Reducing the shot clock to 24 seconds served to shift turnovers from star players to role players, at least on a per-possession basis. The Paul Westhead "shoot it before you turn it over" system is an even more extreme example of this effect; Taurasi cut her turnover rate by nearly half, from 18.5 in 2005 to 9.6 this year.

One of those Mercury players, rookie Cappie Pondexter, kept Jackson from maintaining the top spot on this list. Still, Jackson dominates, coming into 2006 with the four lowest single seasons in turnover rate for a 15-point scorer in WNBA history - in five years in the league. This year has been no exception.

When you add Jackson's efficient shooting and ability to avoid turnovers, her overall offensive efficiency is essentially unparalleled. A simple measure of total efficiency is to take a player's points scored divided by her possessions used (multiplied by 100, as is team Offensive Rating). Minimum 250 minutes, Jackson put up a historic season by this measure as well:

OFFENSIVE RATING
Player
Team
Year
PPG
ORat
Becky Hammon
New York
2003
14.7
122.7
Lauren Jackson
Seattle
2006
19.5
120.8
Crystal Robinson
New York
2001
10.7
111.1
Latasha Byears
Los Angeles
2002
7.0
109.4
Alisa Burras
Portland
2002
8.7
107.8

Like many efficiency measures, this tends to favor role players (though this year, Jackson was trailed by Taurasi, at 104.9, and Pondexter, at 102.0). When you consider her large role in the offense combined with her efficiency, Jackson might have posted the best offensive season in WNBA history. Is it any wonder, then, that Jackson had the most impact on her team's offense of any player in the WNBA, according to plus-minus data tracked by Paul Swanson of the Minnesota Lynx?

David Locke has already broken down what net plus-minus reveals about Jackson's impact, but the final numbers are even more impressive. Jackson's net plus-minus of +20.8 not only led the WNBA, no other regular player in the league finished with a net plus-minus better than +15.8.


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