2010 Western Conference Preview
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It's a new era in Los Angeles, where Sparks legend Lisa Leslie retired at the end of the 2009 season and Head Coach Michael Cooper resigned to take the same job at USC. That doesn't mean any kind of rebuilding period, however. With Candace Parker in place to take over as superstar and a cast of experienced veterans, expectations remain as high as ever at the Staples Center.
After a season at the helm of the Minnesota Lynx, WNBA legend Jennifer Gillom takes over for Cooper. Gillom's leadership helped youngsters Nicky Anosike and Charde Houston develop and Minnesota put together the league's second-best offense without injured Seimone Augustus, but the Lynx struggled at the defensive end, finishing 12th in the WNBA in Defensive Rating.
It will be interesting to see how much of that had to do with Minnesota's personnel and how much of that had to do with Gillom, since she inherits a very different Los Angeles team. For all the team's big names and high scorers, the Sparks have been a defensive team the last two seasons. In 2009, they were 11th in the league in Offensive Rating, yet still made the playoffs thanks to a defense that ranked third.
Los Angeles did lose its best defensive player with Leslie's retirement, but Parker is a stat-sheet stuffer at the defensive end who can defend multiple positions. In all likelihood, she'll be the biggest Sparks starter in 2010, though she and Tina Thompson may trade off the responsibilities of defending opposing centers. DeLisha Milton-Jones is a crafty wing defender with long arms, and Los Angeles has added another quality perimeter defender in Ticha Penicheiro.
Penicheiro's bigger impact, though, will come at the offensive end of the floor. The Sparks have gone through a number of options at point guard the last three seasons, none of them doing enough to solidify the job. Even though Penicheiro won't solve the team's issues with outside shooting at the position, her playmaking and ability to lead the fast break will be a major upgrade. Penicheiro's unselfish play can help keep the team's other starters, all of them go-to scorers at some point in their careers, happy.
The biggest issue with the L.A. offense will be the team's ability to keep the floor spread. The Sparks were 12th in the league in three-pointers in 2009, with only one player on the roster (Thompson) shooting better than the league average. Los Angeles did get some help in that regard during the last week of training camp, dealing a second-round pick to Chicago for combo guard Kristi Toliver. The shoot-first point guard quickly fell out of favor with the Sky, but it had little to do with her performance, at least as a scorer. Toliver shot 44.4 percent from downtown as a rookie, and her 60.6 percent True Shooting Percentage made her one of the league's most efficient scorers.
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Gillom has a lot of different options on the perimeter. Toliver and first-round pick Andrea Riley are both scoring point guards, though they get their points in very different manners. In contrast to the sharpshooting Toliver, Riley is more of a penetrator who may need time to find ways to score in the WNBA at 5-5. At shooting guard, both starter Betty Lennox and reserve Marie Ferdinand-Harris are veteran slashers who can create their own shot. Lennox's usage rate (26.3 percent) stayed strong despite the talent elsewhere on the Sparks roster, and Ferdinand-Harris managed to use 23.9 percent of the team's possessions when she was on the floor. Gillom would probably do well to get both players to throttle back a little, though that would be out of character for them.
Hometown hero Noelle Quinn played mostly point guard during her first season back in L.A. (she's a local who starred at UCLA). With all the changes, Quinn may be ticketed for minutes at small forward this season. At 6-0, she's got the size for the position, and she can serve as a point forward to complement the smaller scorers the Sparks boast. In terms of WARP, Quinn was L.A.'s third-best player last season, trailing the duo of Leslie and Parker, so Gillom will want to find minutes for her.
What may prove effective is using Quinn as a multi-purpose reserve behind all three of the team's frontcourt players. Any combination of Milton-Jones, Parker and Thompson will work in the frontcourt, so such a rotation would paper over the Sparks thin backup frontcourt. After cutting Vanessa Hayden, apparently due to injuries, all L.A. has in reserve up front are sophomore forward Lindsay Wisdom-Hylton and center Tiffany Stansbury. Wisdom-Hylton averaged just 6.3 minutes per game as a rookie, and Stansbury has been out of the league for two years.
L.A.'s starting lineup is good, and the addition of Penicheiro fills a huge hole. So the potential is there for the Sparks to improve on their regular-season results from the first two years of the Parker era even without Leslie in the lineup. But the Sparks, the league's oldest team, may be as dependent on health as any team in the league. Any injury up front would leave the team perilously thin.
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For several years, the Minnesota Lynx have been touted as a team to watch because of their young talent only to end up in the lottery again. What makes 2010 different? Glad you asked. First, the Lynx were hardly an also-ran in 2009, staying in the playoff race much of the year without star forward Seimone Augustus, who tore her ACL early in the schedule with Minnesota off to a 4-1 start. The Lynx were still a dangerous offensive team, posting the highest Offensive Rating this side of the Phoenix Mercury, but was done in by a porous defense.
Second, Minnesota has finally added a veteran star in her prime to complement the youngsters. By winning the lottery jackpot with a first-round pick acquired from the New York Liberty in a three-team deal in exchange for guard Noelle Quinn, the Lynx were finally able to tempt the Connecticut Sun into sending Lindsay Whalen back home to the land of a thousand lakes. It's hard to overstate what Whalen's return means to the state. She's as popular in Minnesota as ice fishing and - oh yes - happens to also be one of the league's best point guards.
The strength of Whalen's game has always been adapting her style to fit the talent around her. Whalen was a pass-first point guard on a veteran Sun team early in her career, leading Connecticut to the WNBA Finals as a rookie in 2004. As other players departed, Whalen took on an increased scoring load. Expect her usage rate to go down with the Lynx as Whalen focuses on setting up her talented teammates.
That group starts with Augustus, one of the league's best scorers. The master of the midrange jumper and the pullup, Augustus was off to a sizzling start (her True Shooting Percentage was 66.1 percent) when she went down. It may take a while for Augustus to get back to form, especially because she has yet to play since having non-cancerous fibroid tumors removed from her abdomen and lower back just before the start of training camp. By season's end, though, Augustus should be back in form.
Center Nicky Anosike was one of the beneficiaries of Augustus' absence, stepping forward to establish herself as one of the league's budding stars. Anosike is a good scorer who shot 49.8 percent from the field and lived at the free throw line, but her true value comes from her versatility. A physical center, Anosike ranked third in the league in steal percentage behind Angel McCoughtry and Tamika Catchings, reflecting her freakish quickness. Anosike is also a quality rebounder who was the main thing the Lynx had going for them at the defensive end last season.
At power forward, Minnesota used the second pick of the Monarchs Dispersal Draft on steady veteran Rebekkah Brunson, a capable post scorer and rebounder who should also upgrade the Lynx's defense. Brunson will combine with Charde Houston, an All-Star a year ago who replaced Augustus as the team's go-to scorer. Houston is better suited for the reserve role because her size (she's just 6-0) is an issue defensively.
The only unsettled position is shooting guard. Candice Wiggins, the league's Sixth Woman Award winner as a rookie, suffered through a sophomore slump in 2009. Wiggins was less effective in a starting role, primarily because she was no longer able to get to the free throw line so prodigiously (as a percentage of the possessions she used, her free throw attempts dropped from 18 percent to 13 percent).
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2010 Storm PreviewWiggins is also sidelined right now because of arthroscopic knee surgery, and there's a chance she'll get Wally Pipped by No. 2 overall pick Monica Wright, a versatile talent out of Virginia. Wright is an excellent defender who will be amazed by the myriad offensive talents around her after being the Cavaliers' entire offense as a senior. Whether as a starter or a reserve, she'll play a key role.
The last major new piece for the Lynx is Head Coach Cheryl Reeve, who was overdue for a chance to run her own team after learning from several of the league's winningest head coaches - Anne Donovan in Charlotte, Dan Hughes in Charlotte and most recently Bill Laimbeer in Detroit. Reeve's primary task is to upgrade the defense, and she's certainly been given better pieces to work with at that end than Jennifer Gillom had last season.
There are a few issues for Minnesota, including the lack of a proven backup for Whalen. (Spaniard Nuria Martinez, who played one game for the Lynx in 2005, is the only other point guard on the roster, though Wiggins could also see some action at the position.) Nonetheless, this might be the most talented team in the league. The early absences of Augustus and Wiggins could cost Minnesota a game or two, which might be the difference in terms of home-court advantage. By the time the playoffs roll around, however, it's possible the Lynx will be playing as well as anyone and will be the team no one wants to face.
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The Phoenix Mercury has this whole playoff thing down pat. The Mercury has advanced to the postseason just twice in the last nine seasons. Both times, in 2007 and 2009, Phoenix won the championship. The Mercury had the league's best regular-season record and was clearly the best team in the postseason, with Corey Gaines making full use of his team's depth and ability to play a variety of different lineups down the stretch in the WNBA Finals.
The shame is that we won't get a chance to see that same Phoenix squad defend the title. That was an inevitability after the WNBA reduced the league salary cap, what with three players becoming free agents and all in line for new contracts. Le'coe Willingham was the first to go, signing with the Storm as a free agent. From there, the Mercury dealt with a request from guard Cappie Pondexter to be traded to New York. It was months between that rumor first appearing on RebKell and a deal being consummated, as Phoenix GM Ann Meyers found a way to get a third team involved and acquire another star ready for a change of address, Chicago forward Candice Dupree.
It's almost impossible to get equal value for a player of Pondexter's talent, but the Mercury made out as well in the trade as could reasonably be expected. Dupree is a fabulous player in her own right who has been selected to every All-Star Game since she arrived in the WNBA in 2006. Phoenix also sent guard Kelly Mazzante to the Liberty in the deal, which was crucial because it provided cap flexibility.
Phoenix still ended up with limited space under the cap, having to keep a pair of minimum-salary youngsters (second-year wing Sequoia Holmes and undrafted rookie guard Taylor Lilley, who played for former Head Coach Paul Westhead at Oregon) to fill out its roster, but the Mercury was able to re-sign starting point guard Temeka Johnson, a restricted free agent.
Even with the changes, Phoenix should boast the league's best offense. That may be true as long as Diana Taurasi plays in the Valley of the Sun. Taurasi, who won her first MVP award in 2009, used more than a quarter of the team's possessions while still finishing second in the league in True Shooting Percentage (.620), an incredible feat. Taurasi shot better than 50 percent on twos and 40 percent on threes and narrowly missed making 90 percent of her free throws.
Taurasi's role will be slightly different this year, as she shifts to shooting guard to replace Pondexter. The Mercury will have a much bigger starting lineup, with Dupree and Penny Taylor at forward to go along with incumbents Johnson and Taurasi in the backcourt and Tangela Smith at center. That should help Phoenix defensively (where the Mercury ranked last in the league on a per-possession basis, though the team showed the ability to make key stops in the playoffs) and on the glass, and the drop-off on offense should not be especially noticeable.
One big key on offense will be a full year from Taylor, who was working her way back from ankle surgery when she joined Phoenix at midseason and probably wasn't back in full form until the playoffs. Of course, Taylor still made an even 40 percent of her three-pointers and had a 59.2 percent True Shooting Percentage, so it's scary to imagine what she can do when healthy (consider her 2007 effort, when she was arguably the best player on a team with Pondexter and Taurasi, a guide).
The Mercury's embarrassment of riches also includes Johnson, who rallied after two poor seasons in Los Angeles to reemerge as one of the league's premier pass-first point guards and also showed a newfound ability to shoot the three. All Smith did was lead the league in three-point percentage at 45.2 percent, filling her role as a "stretch five" to perfection. We haven't yet even mentioned DeWanna Bonner, the league's Sixth Woman Award winner who was Phoenix's best rebounder and used her incredible footspeed to outrace opposing players for layups all season long.
This year's Mercury team isn't quite as deep as last year's incarnation. Besides Bonner, veteran center Nicole Ohlde (Phoenix's best interior defender) and point guard Ketia Swanier are the lone reliable reserves, which will make it important that the Mercury stay healthy. Pondexter also certainly will be missed. For all of Phoenix's talent, the team doesn't have another player capable of creating off the dribble - both for herself and for others - in the same way Pondexter can. That won't make the Mercury any less frightening for opponents, and it's very realistic to think that Phoenix could add a third title in four years to lay claim to the title of the WNBA's most recent dynasty.
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After a 2009 season that fell short of expectations, the San Antonio Silver Stars underwent more than their fair share of change over the winter. This year's Silver Stars squad will be missing some important pieces, starting with Head Coach Dan Hughes, who resigned his position to focus on GM duties and allow Sandy Brondello, his long-time assistant and a former Storm player, to take over as head coach. Veteran wing Vickie Johnson, one of the league's most underrated players throughout her career, retired, as did veteran forward Erin Perperoglou. Center Ann Wauters decided to take the season off to stay at home in Belgium, costing San Antonio a second starter.
The Silver Stars still boast their cornerstones in guard Becky Hammon and forward Sophia Young, and there are not a lot of better one-two punches in the league. At 32, Hammon bettered her previous career high in WARP for the second consecutive season. She used a league-high 28.3 percent of San Antonio's possessions, and did so while maintaining an elite True Shooting Percentage (59.3 percent). Hammon may not be a point guard for the Silver Stars, but she has the ball in her hands most of the time and posted one of the league's top assist percentages. The lone chink in her offensive armor? Hammon is too prone to turnovers, coughing the ball up on 17.9 percent of her possessions.
Young is an excellent complement to Hammon, an über-athletic forward who can pick on the perimeter and either roll to the basket or pop for an open jumper. In 2009, Young demonstrated newfound range, making 17 triples after hitting none in her first three seasons - including a game-winning three against the Storm in July. One surprising negative for Young: Despite her incredible leaping ability, she's a below-average rebounder, part of the reason San Antonio is annually poor on the glass. The Silver Stars were last in the league in defensive rebounding in 2009.
Of the other three starting spots, only one is entirely certain. Ruth Riley will step in for Wauters at center, as she did early last season. Riley had the best of her three seasons with the Silver Stars thanks to spending more time in the paint and less on the perimeter, which helped her improve her two-point percentage and get to the free throw line more often. Riley is an excellent shot blocker, but she too is not a rebounder.
Fortunately, San Antonio has added a couple of superior rebounders. Michelle Snow, picked up from Atlanta in a salary dump, will be a major help in this regard off the bench. The Silver Stars also added the very talented Jayne Appel, who fell to them at the No. 5 pick. Appel, whose standout career at Stanford ended at the AT&T Center in a loss to Connecticut in the NCAA title game, has yet to see game action due to a stress fracture in her right foot. When she gets healthy, Appel should be able to make an impact.
At forward, San Antonio has several options to complement Young. Roneeka Hodges, signed away from Minnesota as a free agent, and incumbent Belinda Snell are both capable shooters. Snell is a star in international play who has never been able to quite match that level of consistency in the WNBA, which could give Hodges an opportunity to step forward. Replacing the injured Seimone Augustus, Hodges had a breakthrough 2009 campaign, canning 39.8 percent of her three-pointers.
Young can also shift to small forward thanks to her athleticism, opening up minutes for second-year forward Megan Frazee. The product of Liberty University posted an above-average winning percentage as a rookie, using 24.3 percent of the team's possessions while on the floor. Frazee is a dangerous midrange shooter with the ability to step out and knock down the three at 6-3. Frazee was also the best Silver Stars rebounder in 2009, grabbing 16.2 percent of all available rebounds.
In the backcourt, former Storm guard Edwige Lawson-Wade will likely start alongside Hammon. A true point guard who can share ballhandling duties with Hammon, Lawson-Wade is also dangerous off the ball thanks to her shooting range. She knocked down threes at a 36.3 percent clip last season. Surprisingly, Lawson-Wade is also a very good rebounder for the position. When San Antonio needs a defensive specialist, veteran Helen Darling will get the call.
The Silver Stars should be able to score the basketball, what with talent like Hammon and Young and a fleet of shooters who can make defenses pay for having to give help on the superstars. It was San Antonio's defense - typically a strength of Hughes squads - that let the team down last year. The Silver Stars were 10th in the league in Defensive Rating, and this year's squad might be weaker at that end of the floor with the loss of the capable Johnson. San Antonio has some interesting pieces, and if enough of them play as well as possible, the Silver Stars could compete for the Western Conference title. More likely, though, San Antonio will be battling for a fourth consecutive playoff appearance.
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When the Detroit Shock moved to Tulsa this offseason, they left several players behind. The core of the Detroit team that won the 2006 and 2008 championships (as well as winning in 2003 with a different cast) is gone now, with just four players - mostly youngsters - remaining even from last year's roster. It may have been time for a change, what with the Shock finishing third in the Eastern Conference during the regular season and aging, but it's unlikely the changes would have been as dramatic had the team remained in Detroit.
With all the new pieces, the Shock is nearly a complete mystery heading into the season. Head Coach Nolan Richardson has never coached women, and his experience coaching at the professional level is limited to minor leagues, so this will be an adjustment for the accomplished NCAA men's coach who won the 1994 championship at Arkansas.
In interviews, Richardson has said he might have to pull back a little on the style once famously nicknamed "40 minutes of hell." Still, expect plenty of pressure from Tulsa. According to Sue Bird, the Shock pressed once every six or seven possessions in the teams' exhibition game, but she indicated it felt like the Shock was trying to hold back from showing everything the team had. With players coming back late, sloppy play is par for the course in the preseason, but Tulsa forcing 33 Storm turnovers is an indication that the team can have success.
As a general manager, Richardson has put together a roster that fits his scheme. The Shock is short on big names (forward Plenette Pierson, who won the WNBA's inaugural Sixth Woman Award in 2007, is probably the biggest star) but long on interchangeable athletes.
The model player for the roster is probably guard Alexis Hornbuckle, a starter for Detroit much of her second season who will likely handle point guard duties as part of a committee. For some reason, Hornbuckle's steal rate dropped last year, but as a rookie she recorded more steals on a per-possession basis than any other WNBA player.
Shavonte Zellous is the other promising youngster the Shock inherited from Detroit. Zellous dropped to the 11th pick of last year's first round, where Bill Laimbeer happily scooped her up as his final move in charge of the Shock before resigning early in the regular season to pursue a job as an assistant coach with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Zellous used a quarter of Detroit's possessions while on the floor as a rookie, and her role as go-to player will be even more clear with the Shock. Zellous shot just 41.5 percent on two-point attempts, but she made it work because she lived at the free throw line, getting there on 18 percent of her possessions.
A seven-year vet, Pierson is by far the Shock's most experienced player. Pierson was a sixth starter in Detroit, and the shoulder injury she suffered in last year's season opener was critical to submarining the Shock's season before it got started. In Tulsa, Pierson should carry a heavier load while playing power forward instead of being at small forward as she was much of the time in Detroit. There, her athleticism will be her advantage against bigger opponents.
Center Kara Braxton rounds out the talented but small group the Shock retained this offseason. Believe it or not, Braxton led the Shock in WARP last season, not bigger names like Deanna Nolan or Katie Smith. Braxton has never been able to stay on the floor for extended minutes and her conditioning could be an issue in Richardson's style, but she simply produces. Braxton used even more possessions than Zellous last season while shooting 52.7 percent from the field, and she pulled down more than 20 percent of all available rebounds while on the floor.
Richardson will need to find a few contributors from the newcomers, most of whom have WNBA experience but none of whom is an established player in the league. Shanna Crossley, picked up from San Antonio in a trade, could be key because she is far and away the roster's best three-point shooter. Coming back from an ACL tear, Crossley's playing time was limited in 2009, but she still canned 44.4 percent of her attempts from downtown. In Tulsa, Crossley will get plenty of minutes.
Elsewhere, Natasha Lacy is the team's only true point guard, an international veteran who is getting her first chance with a WNBA team. Scholanda Robinson landed in the perfect spot for her defensive-minded style but will need to be more consistent from beyond the arc to earn heavy minutes. Amber Holt is a quality all-around player who also struggled with her shot in 2009. Rookie Amanda Thompson is an active, undersized power forward who can emulate what has made Pierson successful and Chante Black is the other legit center on the roster, a former first-round pick who made just 38.5 percent of her two-point attempts as a rookie.
Then there's Marion Jones, the biggest wild card on a roster full of them. At 34, the former track star showed she has enough left in the tank to make the roster, and she was competitive against the Storm in the preseason.
Most of the discussion about the Shock has focused on the veteran stars the team lost, but - at least in 2009 - their production did not match their reputations. Nolan, Smith and Cheryl Ford (unable to play this season due to her knees) combined for just 4.4 WARP last season. The younger players carried a bigger load than was believed, and Tulsa's starting lineup should be fine. It's the bench, then, that will need to step up in order for the Shock to make a run at the postseason in the team's first year in Tulsa.
- Kevin Pelton, stormbasketball.com
