2010 Eastern Conference Preview
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Even in a league that once saw a team go from the cellar to winning the championship, the Atlanta Dream's turnaround from 2008 to 2009 was remarkable. As an expansion franchise, the hapless Dream threatened the worst record in league history, finishing 4-30. A season later, Atlanta not only reached the playoffs but had home-court advantage in the first round. The 14-game improvement was surpassed only by Detroit adding 16 wins en route to the 2003 WNBA championship.
Like that Shock team, the Dream benefited from having the league's worst record the season before the WNBA contracted. As a result, Atlanta not only got the top pick in the WNBA Draft via the lottery but also the first selection in the Dispersal Draft of former Houston Comets players. The Dream struck gold with both selections. Louisville forward Angel McCoughtry ended up the league's Rookie of the Year and former Comets forward Sancho Lyttle was an All-Star. The upgrades also included a healthy Erika de Souza joining Lyttle on the Eastern Conference All-Star team, veteran Chamique Holdsclaw supplying scoring and rebounding and second-round pick Shalee Lehning emerging as a starter at the point.
Atlanta ended up, amazingly enough, with the league's best balance of offense and defense. The Dream was the only WNBA team to finish in the league's top five in both Offensive and Defensive Rating. Even a disappointing playoff sweep at the hands of the Shock (with injuries a major factor; Lehning did not play in the series and Holdsclaw was limited to 13 minutes in two games) could not take away the good feeling about Atlanta's season. The Dream was competitive far sooner than its recent expansion cohorts, the Chicago Sky, which still has yet to make the postseason in four years of existence.
The offseason was more about maintaining the status quo than improving. Bad long-term contracts handed out during Atlanta's inaugural season hamstrung the Dream's ability to re-sign de Souza, a restricted free agent. To do so, the Dream had to shed a guaranteed contract. That was Michelle Snow, the center signed as a free agent last offseason who ended up a bit player because of de Souza's own emergence. Snow was dealt to San Antonio in a deal that yielded only cap flexibility.
With limited cap space, Atlanta's marquee pickup was veteran point guard Kelly Miller, coming off a disappointing season in Minnesota. Miller will be coming home and is reunited with twin sister Coco Miller, though Coco is not assured a spot on the final roster. If she returns to anything resembling her Phoenix form, Kelly Miller will be an upgrade at the position, a problem area for the Dream the last two seasons, but she will turn 32 during the season, so expectations need to be tempered.
Atlanta also can't expect an instant impact from its first-round pick, Mississippi State center Chanel Mokango. The raw Mokango shot up draft boards in the month before the draft because of her athletic talent, but she is still early in her development. Mokango did fill a need for the Dream, which was lacking in size behind Lyttle and de Souza after dealing Snow.
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If Atlanta is to improve, then, that will most likely come from within. The most obvious candidate is McCoughtry, who only scratched the surface of her skills during her rookie campaign. On a per-minute basis, McCoughtry put up the league's seventh-best Win percentage as a rookie. Still, it wasn't until Holdsclaw underwent arthroscopic knee surgery that McCoughtry moved into the starting lineup and began playing heavy minutes. She'll surely be in a starting role from day one this season and is likely to be one of the league's top scorers thanks to her ability to create off the dribble. (The Dream's fast-paced style won't hurt there.)
As long as de Souza and Lyttle stay healthy, Atlanta will be formidable in the paint. de Souza, who had played well in spurts prior to 2009, finished with the league's third-highest rebounding percentage. Lyttle translated her fantastic per-minute performance in Houston into a larger role. Her quickness makes Lyttle a phenomenal defensive player, and both players can finish in the paint as well.
Because Atlanta had a quiet offseason, the Dream has flown under the radar heading into the season. Given the team's young core, Atlanta did not need to upgrade as much as other Eastern Conference rivals. The Dream stands an excellent chance of returning to the postseason and has enough talent, if things break right, to win the conference. The late-breaking news that Holdsclaw has demanded a trade should not change things dramatically. She was already looking at limited minutes because McCoughtry and Iziane Castro Marques have established themselves as Atlanta's starting wings. The biggest issue is that if the Dream does not get a post player in return in a Holdsclaw deal, that leaves Mokango as the only legitimate frontcourt reserve.
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The Chicago Sky finished 2009 heartbreakingly close to the first playoff berth in franchise history, losing a three-way tie for the last spot in the Eastern Conference. From the perspective of advanced statistics, however, Chicago had no business ever being in the discussion. The Sky was outscored by 3.5 points per game, which typically would translate into about 13 wins instead of the 16 Chicago actually won. The Sky's differential, in fact, ranked dead last in a compact league.
The culprit was an inability to get stops. Chicago's offense was slightly above average, but the Sky ranked 11th in Defensive Rating, narrowly avoiding the league's cellar. Actually, Chicago was OK on defense when Sylvia Fowles was healthy, but during the 10 games the team's imposing center missed, things fell apart. The team went a dismal 1-9 in those games. Unfortunately, the Sky can't count on a full 34 games from Fowles, who has missed extended periods due to injuries in both of her WNBA seasons.
The good news is Chicago now has a top-tier backup for Fowles in Courtney Paris, selected from Sacramento in the Dispersal Draft. Paris had a tough time finding consistent minutes as a rookie and her limitations at the defensive end because of her size are obvious, but she also piled up points and especially rebounds while on the floor, ranking second in the WNBA in rebound percentage. In limited minutes behind Fowles, Paris can be a force, and she's more than capable of holding down the fort if Fowles goes down again.
The bad news is the Sky has lost the face of the franchise, forward Candice Dupree. Dupree asked for a trade, and Chicago granted her wish as part of a three-team deal that sent Dupree to Phoenix and brought forwards Shameka Christon and Cathrine Kraayeveld from New York.
In Christon, the Sky got an All-Star, though not a go-to player on Dupree's order. While she took her game to another level in 2009, the big difference for Christon came the previous season, when she improved her three-point shooting and slashed her turnovers without sacrificing her ability to get to the free throw line. Christon should fit in nicely for Chicago at both ends of the floor. She pairs with Jia Perkins to give the Sky two elite wing players with the ability to shoot and create off the dribble.
The question mark for Chicago is at power forward, Kraayeveld slides in to replace Dupree at the four, but she's coming off a disappointing season that saw her poor rebounding become a major issue. Kraayeveld pulled down a career-best 13.2 percent of available rebounds in 2008, but that mark slipped to 7.4 percent in 2009. If Kraayeveld struggles on the glass again, the Sky doesn't have a lot of alternatives. Former Storm forward Shyra Ely was waived after tearing her patella tendon, leaving journeywomen Mistie Bass and Sandora Irvin competing to back up Kraayeveld.
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2010 Storm PreviewChicago has far more depth at the point, but no clear starter. Veteran Dominique Canty got a new contract as a free agent this offseason; at 33, however, she's ready to start ceding minutes to a younger player. Kristi Toliver was to be that player as the third pick of last year's draft, but she already seems to have fallen out of favor. Toliver is more of a combo guard, a terrific outside shooter (she made six three-pointers in the Sky's win at KeyArena) who struggled as a distributor and at the defensive end.
Chicago added another talented tweener to the mix this year in Rutgers product Epiphanny Prince. Prince isn't your typical rookie, having spent the winter playing overseas after deciding to skip her final year of college. The experience should help Prince make a quicker adjustment to the pro game. Like Toliver, Prince is not considered a pure point guard, so it will be interesting to see if she can succeed in the eyes of Head Coach Steven Key where Toliver apparently failed.
Even with the addition of Paris, Fowles will probably be the key to the Sky's fate in 2010. So far, her most dominant performances as a pro have come in Russia for Spartak Moscow Region, not in Chicago. Though Fowles shot 59.9 percent from the field, her rebound and block numbers shrunk on a per-possession basis, so there is more than her injuries to blame for the Sky's poor defensive performance. If Fowles steps forward, Chicago can survive the loss of Dupree and advance to the postseason for the first time in franchise history.
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By all statistical accounts, the Connecticut Sun should have been the final seed in last year's Eastern Conference Playoffs. Losing out on the three-time tie wasn't all bad for the Sun, though. It put Connecticut in the lottery, where the Sun secured the No. 2 overall pick when Sacramento folded. Using star Lindsay Whalen as a very enticing lure, Connecticut's Mike Thibault swapped picks with the Minnesota Lynx, putting the Sun in position to keep UConn star Tina Charles in the state for her pro basketball.
Thibault's bold moves weren't entirely complete. On draft day, he surrendered next year's first-round pick - or, as it is better known, a possible shot at the Maya Moore lottery - to the Lynx, this time adding No. 3 overall pick Kelsey Griffin to the mix. By adding so many players on rookie contracts, Connecticut had enough cap space to add a marquee free agent - former Monarchs guard Kara Lawson, who will be the Tennessee representative among a sea of UConn alumnae.
With such massive turnover, and young players in key roles - depending on whether Lawson starts or comes off the bench, Asjha Jones could be the only Sun starter with more than three seasons of WNBA experience - Connecticut is arguably the most unpredictable team in the league.
Certainly, the talent is there. Thibault has always had an outstanding eye for nabbing players, especially from Europe. French post Sandrine Gruda, already a solid contributor by age 22, was drafted late in the first round. Wing Anete Jekabsone-Zogota, a talented Latvian scorer, came as a free agent. (The Sun beat out the Storm, among others, to sign Jekabsone-Zogota.) When Gruda arrives (she's expected the first week of June), those two players along with youngsters Charles and Renee Montgomery and veterans Jones and Lawson give Connecticut six starting-caliber players, and the bench also features Griffin, Dispersal Draftee DeMya Walker and Tan White.
The key for the Sun may end up being shooting. Thibault's system has always demanded his players be able to space the floor. That's why Lawson is an important addition. She slumped to 33.6 percent accuracy beyond the arc in 2009, but shot 43.2 percent from downtown the previous season. Jekabsone-Zogota made 39.4 percent of her threes and Montgomery shot 34.2 percent last year, when both were rookies.
Shooting will be compromised to some extent if Connecticut goes with a possible bigger starting lineup featuring Charles and Gruda up front, with Jones sliding to the wing. Gruda is a capable 15- to 18-foot shooter and Jones is a versatile contributor who has played small forward before, but neither is a three-point shooter.
A smaller lineup will give Charles more space to operate in the middle. Her numbers as a Husky, along with the track record of No. 1 overall picks, suggest Charles should be an All-Star from day one. Her size and athleticism translate well to the pro game, and Charles is a polished post scorer who has picked up experience working with the U.S. National Team. Expect her finishing ability to make a big difference for a team that shot just 43.9 percent on twos last season, 12th in the WNBA.
The biggest key for the Sun will probably be Charles' fellow UConn product, Montgomery. Solid as a rookie in Minnesota, where she emerged as a starter, Montgomery has very big shoes to fill in replacing perennial All-Star Whalen. As a rookie, Montgomery was further ahead in her development as a scorer than a passer. Whalen handed out assists on 6.9 percent of her offensive possessions; Montgomery was at 4.2 percent. Montgomery didn't lack for options playing with the talented Lynx, so she will have to do a better job of finding teammates than she did last season.
There's also some pressure on Thibault, who has been more successful as a talent evaluator than an on-court coach in recent seasons. The starting lineup that led Connecticut to the WNBA Finals in 2004 and 2005 is now entirely gone, replaced by youngsters hand-picked by Thibault. Despite the talent, the Sun's offense has been surprisingly poor at times, finishing 10th in the league last season. Thibault risked a lot to add Charles and Griffin, and if this team misses the playoffs without the reward of a lottery pick, it will reflect poorly on him.
Still, I'm a believer in Connecticut's offseason. When you compare what the Sun has added (Charles, Lawson and Montgomery) to the loss of Whalen, it is pretty clearly a net upgrade. Remember then that Connecticut was, in terms of differential, third-best among current East teams last year (albeit not by a substantial margin). Based on that, the Sun should be a solid contender in the East with a chance at grabbing home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
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In 2009, the Indiana Fever finally broke through. The Fever posted the WNBA's second-best regular-season record, dispatched of the rival (or nemesis) Detroit Shock in the Eastern Conference Finals and came within a game of joining the Storm as the lone post-1998 expansion franchises to win championship. As Indiana continues to chase that elusive title, the Fever enters 2010 having made few changes to the roster. Backup guard Tamecka Dixon retired, but all 10 other players are back from last year's team.
The question then is, can the same players produce the same results? There are a couple of reasons to think that may not be the case. One is the improvement made by other Eastern Conference rivals. The Fever got no benefit from the Dispersal Draft and free agency, and Indiana's first-round pick (San Diego State guard Jené Morris) is unlikely to make a major impact in her first season. Other teams have been able to close the talent gap this offseason.
The second concern for the Fever is the team's age. Four of five starters are on the wrong side of 30, so it may be unrealistic to expect Indiana's players to turn in duplicate seasons.
Where slippage is unlikely is on the defensive end of the court. The Fever was the WNBA's best defensive team in 2009, holding that spot for the second time in three years (in between, with Catchings limited by injury, Indiana slipped all the way to third in 2008). The Fever's draft picks should allow the team to maintain its defensive mindset. Second-year point guard Briann January will continue to take on a larger role during what will be former Storm point guard Tully Bevilaqua's final WNBA season (she turns 38 in July). Indiana saw little defensive drop-off with January replacing the tenacious Bevilaqua, and Morris was a perfect fit for the Fever in this year's draft because she excelled playing pressure defense as an Aztec.
The offensive end is a bit more of a concern. A healthy Catchings and improved outside shooting helped Indiana improve from being 12th in the league in Offensive Rating in 2008, but at eighth in the league the Fever was still below average. Neither Catchings nor fellow go-to player Katie Douglas is especially efficient, and the Fever was 12th out of 13 teams in effective field-goal percentage.
Indiana helped make up for it by living at the free-throw line. Catchings, Douglas and center Tammy Sutton-Brown all attempted at least 100 free throws, and getting to the line proved to be the strength of January's game as a rookie. Further development from January could help here, since Indiana has gone years without a point guard capable of breaking down the defense. Bevilaqua, however, is superior at spacing the floor.
One of the more interesting questions for the Fever is whether the team's frontcourt reserves will be as effective as they were in 2009. The unit was cobbled together after Yolanda Griffith's season (and career) ended prematurely because of a torn Achilles. Indiana signed a pair of Jessicas - Jessica Davenport and Jessica Moore - after both players were released during training camp, and got effective minutes out of the duo. Moore was enough of a threat on offense to be useful at the defensive end, while Davenport complemented her game with powerful post scoring. Moore's performance was largely unexpected, so the Fever may not be able to count on a repeat. That would put Davenport in a key role, since starter Tammy Sutton-Brown is no stranger to foul trouble.
It's unlikely Indiana will be able to run away with the Eastern Conference like last season, but nor should the Fever be forgotten simply because the team hasn't captured offeseason headlines. Indiana remains the favorite to win the East, and with stars Catchings and Douglas aging (both will turn 31 during the season, and Catchings has suffered from injuries before being able to stay healthy in 2009), this might be the Fever's last best chance to win a championship with this core group.
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The New York Liberty entered 2009 as the up-and-coming team in the Eastern Conference, having upset Connecticut and given Detroit a good battle in the 2008 Playoffs. The young core would continue to come together and New York might even win the conference, or so the storyline went entering the season. When the Liberty instead collapsed to the East cellar, finishing 13-21, fans predictably reacted with vitriol, filling RebKell with threads debating whether Head Coach Pattie Coyle (who was relieved of her duties at midseason and replaced by former Storm Head Coach Anne Donovan) or GM Carol Blazejowski was more to blame.
Given the change in perception, it's funny - and instructive - to check out New York's advanced statistics. In 2008, the Liberty outscored opponents by 1.1 points per game. In 2009, New York was outscored by 0.7 points per game. That's a difference, certainly, but one that should mean a drop of about two games in the standings. Instead, the Liberty fell by six wins. It's difficult to attribute the difference to anything but fortune. In 2008, New York was a little fortunate to win 19 games, and very fortunate to upset the Sun and win a playoff series. In 2009, the Liberty was essentially as good or better as the three teams who tied for the final playoff spot in the East, but struggled to win close games. The most remarkable statistic: Just four of New York's 21 losses came by double digits. Needless to say, this is unusual for a cellar-dwelling team.
Now, Blazejowski did make a costly mistake during training camp, dealing an unprotected first-round pick to the Minnesota Lynx as part of a three-team deal that returned reserve forward Sidney Spencer. Spencer was a bit player, averaging less than 10 minutes per game, while the Liberty's slide turned that pick into a lottery one - eventually the No. 1 overall selection. Certainly, Jamaica, Queens native Tina Charles would have looked good at the Garden.
Still, New York reaped some benefit of its frustrating season in the Dispersal Draft, taking former Monarchs forward Nicole Powell. Adding another All-Star forward proved critical when the Liberty got another bit of good fortune in Cappie Pondexter deciding she wanted to play in the Big Apple. New York was able to use its own All-Star small forward, Shameka Christon, along with Cathrine Kraayeveld, to bring in the dynamic Pondexter in another three-team trade.
The Liberty capped its offseason makeover by signing veteran center Taj McWilliams as a free agent. McWilliams has been starting, which means New York will have three newcomers in its starting five as well as Donovan as a head coach for a full season. That's a lot of turnover, and almost all of it positive, so it's no wonder the buzz around the Liberty is nearly as strong as it was a year ago.
It will be shocking if New York isn't the league's most improved offensive team. Having developed her skills as a distributor while playing overseas, Pondexter has emerged as more than just a scorer. Her assist rate ranked ninth in the league last year, trailing only true point guards, and Pondexter finished several games in the WNBA Finals running the point for the Mercury. Pondexter has also improved her shot selection, though it's likely her usage rate will increase this year and her efficiency will slip slightly without Diana Taurasi to share the load.
It's not as if Pondexter's new teammates are untalented. Powell is pretty much the ideal wing player alongside Pondexter, a perimeter sharpshooter with the ability to create for herself at times when Pondexter is on the bench. Holdover Janel McCarville is a good pick-and-roll option with Pondexter who is also dangerous in the post because she has nice touch and is skilled at passing out of double-teams. Even at 39, McWilliams is a capable finisher in the paint with the ability to step away from the basket to clear space for McCarville.
The question marks center almost entirely around the fifth spot in the lineup. If Pondexter plays the two, the Liberty is not deep at point guard after buying out incumbent starter Loree Moore. New York brings back third-year guard Leilani Mitchell, a Kennewick, Wash. native who started the Liberty's preseason game, and drafted Ashley Houts out of Georgia in the second round of the draft. Both players seem stretched by the starting role, though if Mitchell can become more of a scoring threat on offense she's solid defensively and as a distributor.
The better option, especially down the stretch, will probably be putting Pondexter at the point. She's going to handle the ball most of the time anyway, and that allows the Liberty to have better talent on the floor. Still, New York's other shooting guard options aren't entirely unblemished. Essence Carson is a quality defender (important for the Liberty since Pondexter and Powell are below-average at the defensive end) and well-rounded UConn product Kalana Greene was a second-round steal, but neither player will stretch the floor with their shooting.
New York's offseason improvement should translate into a return to the postseason, barring the team falling apart (it won't help in this regard that Donovan has already announced she's leaving after the season to take over at Seton Hall University). The question is just how dangerous the Liberty will be. New York has the talent to compete for a championship this season, but could be held back by the inability to find Pondexter an ideal backcourt-mate. The Liberty's best chances of winning the East are probably still a season or two and a piece or two away.
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When it comes to bad fortune, New York won't get much sympathy from the Washington Mystics. The Mystics have had plenty of bad luck to go with mismanagement during a 13-year run that has included just five playoff appearances and one series victory. The latest example of the Mystics being star-crossed was especially painful. After reaching the postseason in 2009 and adding Katie Smith as a free agent, Washington had ample reason to be optimistic about this upcoming season ... until Alana Beard injured a ligament in her left ankle during an offseason workout and the team learned she would need season-ending surgery.
Even with a healthy Beard, the Mystics struggled to put the ball in the hoop last season, ranking dead last in the WNBA in Offensive Rating. Washington will badly miss Beard's ability to create shots, even though her efficiency at making them has varied from year to year. In 2009, reserve guards Matee Ajavon and Nikki Blue were the only other Mystics who used possessions at an above-average rate.
Smith can help fill some of the void - if she's healthy. After all, Smith missed last year's postseason with a back injury and wasn't entirely sure she could return before ultimately deciding to sign with Washington. Smith has been fine during training camp, and will step into Beard's spot at shooting guard. However, at this stage of her career Smith is more effective as a role player than a go-to one, so she can't entirely replace the possessions Beard was using. (She may be more efficient, especially if she maintains last year's 43.2 percent accuracy from beyond the arc.)
A lot of the pressure, then, will fall on point guard Lindsey Harding. Acquired from the Lynx before the 2009 season, Harding lived up to the potential that made her the top overall pick in the 2007 Draft. Her ability to get into the paint off the dribble will be critical for the Mystics this season, allowing her to use possessions and set up teammates. Harding will have to improve her True Shooting Percentage, a below-average 50.9 percent last season. It would help if she got to the free throw line more often than she did last season, when 10 percent of the possessions she used ended at the charity stripe.
The next candidate to step forward is probably second-year forward Marissa Coleman, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2009 Draft. Coleman was off to a solid start when she injured her ankle in practice. Upon her return, Coleman was less effective, and she was below average in terms of both usage and efficiency last season. Coleman's pedigree and track record at Maryland indicate she's capable of doing much more on offense, and that would give Washington a major boost.
The Mystics will want Crystal Langhorne to keep doing what she did last year. The WNBA's Most Improved Player in her sophomore campaign, Langhorne emerged as the ultimate role player. She's a high-percentage finisher from close range (she shot 57.8 percent on twos) who created little of her own offense but was the only Washington player with an above-average True Shooting Percentage (and dramatically so). Langhorne is also an effective rebounder who should fill the power forward spot for Washington in years to come.
In the middle, the Mystics are in flux. Veterans Chasity Melvin and Nakia Sanford are aging rapidly (both turned 34 this month), which led Washington to draft Florida State's Jacinta Monroe in the first round. Monroe may still need to add some bulk to be able to play against WNBA centers, so one of the veterans will probably start. Melvin should win that battle, as she remains effective as a help defender despite slipping at the offensive end.
The good news about Beard's injury is that Washington does have the depth to replace her. Monique Currie had a solid 2009 starting at small forward and is capable of playing either wing position. Smith, Coleman and Currie would be an effective three-player rotation on the wing. Ajavon will probably also back up both guard positions, though her poor efficiency (she made 33.3 percent of her two-point attempts last season) means the less action she sees, the better.
The Mystics can look at their pieces and still hope to make a run at the postseason, but the odds certainly seem to be against them. Washington was a borderline playoff team with Beard, and the addition of Smith is overshadowed by the improvement made by Connecticut and New York. This looks like another hard-luck season for the Mystics.
- Kevin Pelton, stormbasketball.com
