It’s safe to say this was not a first-round playoff matchup many would have predicted at the beginning of the season. In fact, a quick review of the 2016 preseason general manager survey shows that Phoenix and Indiana were predicted to lead their respective conferences in regular season wins. Well, that didn’t happen for either team and now they both face the win-or-go-home route for the first two rounds of the playoffs, beginning against one another on Wednesday (6 PM ET, ESPNews).

Setting the Stage

Speaking of predictions, the Mercury were the prohibitive favorite (58% of general managers) to win this year’s WNBA Finals. And while this team is too talented to count out now that they are in the postseason, they will have a difficult road to navigate as they will be the lower seed in every series and thus never have home-court advantage. That will definitely put their 5-12 road record from the regular season to the test, beginning in Indianapolis, where the Fever and Mercury split a pair of games during the regular season. In an ironic twist, the Fever were actually a slightly better road team (9-8) than they were a home team (8-9) this season.

The Fever are coming off a 23-point win at home on Sunday as they honored Tamika Catchings in her final regular season game. There was a similar scene in Phoenix this past Thursday when the Mercury honored Penny Taylor in her final regular season home game. Both Taylor and Catchings will retire following this playoff run. The question is: Which player has more games left to play?

Regular Season Series

The Fever won the season series, 2-1, but Phoenix holds the most recent victory with a 79-65 win in Indianapolis on August 30 in the first week after the Olympic break. Phoenix is 6-4 since Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner helped lead Team USA to Olympic gold in Rio, while fellow Olympian Catchings and the rest of her Fever squad are 5-5 post-break.

These two teams met for the first time just five days into the 2016 season and played a tightly contested game won by the Fever and their balanced attack. Indiana had seven players score in double figures, led by the trio of Shenise Johnson, Erica Wheeler and Devereaux Peters, who finished with 16 points apiece; that was just half of what leading scorer Diana Taurasi posted (a season-high 32 points), but Phoenix had just two other players score more than seven points.

Each of the final two regular season games were decided by double figures — an 18-point win by Indiana and the most recent 14-point win by Phoenix. That game on Aug. 30 was billed as a potential final duel between two of the game’s all-time greats in Catchings and Taurasi. But it turns out there will be one more chance to see these two square off, and this time in an elimination game.

May 18 at Indiana

• Fever 97, Mercury 93
• Fever Leaders: Shenise Johnson, Erica Wheeler and Devereaux Peters — 16 points each
• Mercury Leaders: Diana Taurasi — 32 points, 9-18 FG, 5-11 3P, 7 rebounds, 5 assists

July 8 at Phoenix

• Fever 78, Mercury 60
• Fever Leaders: Erlana Larkins — 13 points, 10 rebounds; Briann January — 13 points, 6 steals, 3 assists
• Mercury Leaders: Diana Taurasi — 13 points, 3-8 3P; Kelsey Bone — 13 points, 5 rebounds

August 30 at Indiana

• Mercury 79, Fever 65
• Fever Leaders: Erlana Larkins — 12 points, 4-6 FG, 8 rebounds
• Mercury Leaders: Brittney Griner — 20 points, 8-12 FG, 7 rebounds, 4 blocks, 3 steals, 3 assists

Players to Watch

It has to start with the Catchings-Taurasi matchup; this is two of the three top scorers in the history of the WNBA playoffs, with Taurasi just 32 points shy of making it a matchup of the top two scorers. But these two are not just elite scorers; they are the heart of their respective teams, the catalyst behind each team’s greatest success over the past decade.

All-Time Leading Scorers — WNBA Playoffs

Looking past the obvious Catchings-Taurasi duel, three players that will be vital in this game are Phoenix’s Brittney Griner and Indiana’s Briann January and Shenise Johnson. In the 10 games since the Olympic break, Griner is the league’s seventh-ranked scorer (17.0), ninth-ranked rebounder (7.6), top shot blocker (3.4) and seventh-ranked shooter (59.0%) among players that have made at least 25 shots.

Brittney Griner — Season Breakdown

As for January and Johnson, the difference in their numbers between wins and losses can’t be overlooked, especially when it comes to shooting percentages. It makes sense that most players’ numbers will take a hit during losses, but considering the Fever only have one double-digit scorer in Catchings (12.7 ppg), the Fever can’t afford for January and Johnson to have an off night in a single-elimination game.

Shenise Johnson and Briann January — Wins vs. Losses

Keys to Victory for Fever

The Mercury have a top-seven scorer in Taurasi and two other top-15 scorers in Griner and DeWanna Bonner. Meanwhile, Catchings is the Fever’s top scorer with a rank that matches her jersey number — 24. For the Fever to beat the Mercury, they have to have strength in numbers and get contributions up and down their lineup to score enough points to keep up with a Mercury squad that ranks third in points per game (84.6) compared to 11th for Indiana (80.5).

The Fever will also need a strong effort on the defensive side of the floor, as they have allowed the highest effective field goal percentage (50.8%) and highest free throw rate (0.348) of any playoff team and rank second-to-last in both categories overall. The Mercury have scoring weapons all over the floor that the Fever must contend with and do so without fouling as Phoenix averaged the second most free throws made (19.7 per game) during the regular season.

Keys to Victory for Mercury

The Bankers Life Fieldhouse was packed on Sunday night for Catchings’ swan song. Now the Fever have earned another home game and should have another raucous crowd behind them. The Mercury must try to neutralize the crowd early and a few Taurasi threes early on would definitely do the trick; Taurasi averaged a league-high 2.7 three-pointers per game this season.

The Mercury should look to get Griner involved early. During the three matchups with Indiana during the regular season, she averaged just 13.0 points on 52.0% shooting, 6.3 rebounds and 2.3 blocks — all below her season marks and particularly lower than her post-Olympic numbers. Phoenix must also limit its turnovers; the Mercury averaged 18.7 turnovers in their three games with Indiana this season, the most of any team in the WNBA, and five more than they averaged against all teams — as they can lead to easy points in transition for the Fever.