 Will the Monarchs and Sparks be able to hold onto the final two playoff spots in the Western Conference?
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Think of the WNBA playoff picture as if it were a Polaroid picture (insert OutKast’s Hey Ya joke here). As time goes by, the picture comes more and more into focus and you can even get a pretty clear view of the image before it is fully developed.
Most years, at this point of the regular season, you have a pretty good idea of which teams will be in the playoffs; you just have to wait to see how the seeding shakes out.
That is not the case in 2008.
With the Olympic break upon us and every team having between seven and nine games remaining when play resumes in late August, the playoff picture – especially in the Western Conference – is completely up in the air.
A glance at the Western Conference standings shows
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However, if you look closer you’ll see the Houston Comets – the hottest team in the league with a five-game winning streak heading into the break – is just a half game behind the Sparks and Monarchs.
The Minnesota Lynx, who spent the first two weeks of the season at the top of the standings after a 5-0 start, are just a game behind the Comets with a 13-13 record. Oh, and don’t forget about the defending champs; the Mercury currently sit in last place in the conference, but are still within shouting distance of the fourth and final playoff spot at just three games back.
Six of the seven teams in the Western Conference are playing .500 ball or better and the one that is below .500 won the title a year ago and features the league’s top two scorers in Diana Taurasi and Cappie Pondexter, who are capable of going off on any given night. And while Phoenix sits at the bottom of the conference, the Mercury have already notched impressive wins over Los Angeles (twice), Connecticut (twice) and Seattle.
“I haven’t seen anything like this in the West,” said Sparks forward DeLisha Milton-Jones, who spent the past three seasons with the Washington Mystics. “This is something that I experienced on the East Coast when I was playing with Washington, everybody was fighting for that first, second, third and fourth position and everybody had like 18 losses. Here on the West Coast, it’s just as tight this year and I think it’s going to go down to the wire. You cannot take a night off at any time because if you get caught sleeping you can find yourself at the bottom.”
 The Liberty and Shock, who met in the first round of the 2007 playoffs, both sit a half game behind Connecticut in the East.
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Last season, Milton-Jones’ Mystics team was involved in a three-team race for the fourth and final playoff spot in the East with New York and Chicago.
The Liberty ended up securing the final spot on the last day of the regular season with a win over the Sky. The win gave New York and Washington equal 16-18 records, but the Liberty held the head-to-head tie-breaker over the Mystics to lock up the spot.
This season, the Eastern Conference race is not so much focused on the fourth spot as it is the top spot and securing home-court advantage in the first round. At the break, Connecticut holds the top spot in the conference at 16-10, with New York and Detroit sitting just a half-game back, and Indiana holding the last playoff spot at 12-14.
On the outside looking in are Washington (two games back of Indiana), Chicago (three-and-a-half games back) and Atlanta (nine-and-a-half games back).
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As for Chicago and Atlanta, they can look to play the spoiler role down the stretch and look to build momentum for next season.
“People look at their schedules at the beginning of the season and they can look at teams and say, ‘Oh, that’s an easy win,’” said Milton-Jones. “But if you have an Atlanta at the end of the season like we do, you better come to play because they’re starting to find ways to win games. They may only have won three, but still, they can beat you.”
Just over a month ago, the Sparks defeated the Seattle Storm by 14 points, Candace Parker had dunked for the second straight game and Los Angeles was looking like the team to beat. They not only looked to be a lock for a playoff berth, they were in a great position to secure home-court advantage as they sat atop the Western standings with a 10-3 record.
But L.A. would go on to lose its next three games and went just 5-9 following that win over the Storm and leading up to the Olympic break. The Sparks fell from first place in the conference to a tie for third with just a half-game buffer from being out of the playoffs entirely, providing another example of how competitive the Western Conference has been this season.
However, despite their struggles over the past month, the Sparks are confident they will return to the postseason party after a one-year absence.
“I guarantee we’ll get into the playoffs and then we’ll let the chips fall where they may,” said head coach Michael Cooper after the Sparks’ 69-68 loss to New York last week. “It’s going to be very tough, but we control our own destiny still.
“All of the teams that are in front of us or right behind us, we get to play them,” he continued. “We have the chance to play Seattle twice, we’ve got Houston once, and we’ve got San Antonio twice, so we can put ourselves in the playoffs and the good thing about it is it will be all under our control. If we’re going to be there, we’ve got a chance to be there. If we’re not, then it will be our fault.”
The Sparks may have the luxury of controlling their own destiny, but a loss or two to the teams close to them in the standings and all of that can change. In a race this close, teams will be jockeying for position throughout the final three weeks of the season.
“It makes for good basketball,” Cooper said. “I think the fans love it and the league loves it because you’ve got a tight race… And that’s what it’s about. You can’t take a night off against any team really, but especially out West.”
The stretch runs begins on Aug. 28 when the season resumes from the Olympic break. However, if the first few months have been any indication, this playoff picture may not fully develop until Sept. 14, the last day of the regular season.
| Western Conference Stretch Run | |||
| Team | Games Left | Games vs. Teams .500 or Better | Key Games |
| San Antonio | 7 (3 home, 4 away) | 6 (@LA, vs.LA, @Conn, @NY, vs.Conn, vs.Sac) |
8/28 @ Phoenix 8/30 @ Los Angeles 9/05 vs Los Angeles 9/13 vs Sacramento |
| Seattle | 8 (3 home, 5 away) | 5 (vs.Hou, @Conn, vs.Minn, @Sac, @LA) |
8/28 vs Houston 9/06 vs Minnesota 9/09 @ Sacramento 9/14 @ Los Angeles |
| Los Angeles | 7 (5 home, 2 away) | 6 (vs.Sac, vs.SA, vs.Minn, @SA, @Hou, vs.Sea) |
8/28 vs Sacramento 8/30 vs San Antonio 9/05 @ San Antonio 9/06 @ Houston 9/14 vs Seattle |
| Sacramento | 7 (3 home, 4 away) | 6 (@LA, vs.Hou, vs.Minn, vs.Sea, @Hou, @SA) |
8/28 @ Los Angeles 8/30 vs Houston 9/09 vs Seattle 9/12 @ Houston 9/13 @ San Antonio |
| Houston | 8 (4 home, 4 away) | 6 (@Sea, @Sac, vs.NY, vs.LA, vs.Conn, vs.Sac) |
8/28 @ Seattle 8/30 @ Sacramento 9/06 vs Los Angeles 9/07 @ Phoenix 9/12 vs Sacramento |
| Minnesota | 8 (3 home, 5 away) | 3 (@LA, @Sea, @Sac) |
9/01 @ Los Angeles 9/03 @ Phoenix 9/06 @ Seattle 9/07 @ Sacramento 9/12 vs Phoenix |
| Phoenix | 7 (4 home, 3 away) | 6 (vs.SA, vs.Minn, vs.Sac, vs.Hou, @Det, @Minn) |
8/28 vs San Antonio 9/03 vs Minnesota 9/05 vs Sacramento 9/07 vs Houston 9/12 @ Minnesota |
| Eastern Conference Stretch Run | |||
| Team | Games Left | Games vs. Teams .500 or Better | Key Games |
| Connecticut | 8 (4 home, 4 away) | 4 (vs.Sea, vs.SA, @Hou, @SA) |
8/28 @ Indiana 8/31 vs Seattle 9/07 vs San Antonio 9/11 @ San Antonio |
| New York | 9 (5 home, 4 away) | 4 (@Det, @Hou, vs.SA, vs.Det) |
8/29 @ Detroit 9/02 @ Houston 9/09 vs San Antonio 9/11 @ Indiana 9/14 vs Detroit |
| Detroit | 7 (4 home, 3 away) | 2 (vs.NY, @NY) |
8/29 vs New York 9/05 vs Indiana 9/14 @ New York |
| Indiana | 8 (4 home, 4 away) | 4 (vs.Conn, @Det, @Minn, vs.NY) |
8/28 vs Connecticut 9/02 @ Washington 9/05 @ Detroit 9/11 vs New York |
| Washington | 8 (4 home, 4 away) | 5 (@Minn, vs.Det, @Det, @Conn, vs.Minn) |
9/02 vs Indiana 9/06 vs Detroit 9/11 @ Detroit 9/13 @ Connecticut |
| Chicago | 9 (5 home, 4 away) | 7 (@NY, vs.Det, vs.Sea, @Conn, @NY, vs.NY, vs.Hou) |
8/29 @ Washington 8/31 vs Detroit 9/09 vs Washington |
| Atlanta | 7 (3 home, 4 away) | 5 (vs.Conn, vs.Sea, @NY, @LA, @Sea) |
8/29 vs Connecticut 8/30 @ Indiana 9/05 @ New York 9/08 vs Indiana |