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The Triple Threat Time Machine
By Jon Loomer, NBA.com Fantasy Expert

June 5 -Welcome to the first ever edition of The Triple Threat Time Machine. Sounds silly, right? Could be. The value isn't in the packaging, my friend.

Let me preface this article by saying that I am a huge fantasy guy, but I know close to nothing about the WNBA. Stop. Come back. This article has value.

I am playing Triple Threat this year, and I have become addicted to its madness. Obsessed. Quite possibly caused by my obsession with the Drive to the Finals playoff fantasy game, which boasts a similar format. I just can't get enough of it.

I am also a stats and spreadsheet freak. Here is where the value of this article finally comes into play. I am marveling at the performance of our very own WNBA Fantasy Guru, Matthew Brennan. In case you've missed it, he writes a weekly article every Thursday highlighting his strategy for the Triple Threat Fantasy Challenge.

The Fantasy Guru is living up to his monicker. He currently finds himself in the Top 50 with 408 points. Unfortunately, he is also in my league so that means that I am in the process of battling for second place.

I'm not a quitter, folks, and I will beat The Fantasy Guru. Join me in the fight. No, I don't know much about the WNBA and its players. However, that will not stop me from preventing this brainiac from dominating the rest of us. And I will bring the rest of you along for the ride.

Stats and spreadsheets. It's Science vs. Brains.

If I can do anything, I can do spreadsheets. So, while the rest of you were grilling out in the sun, shopping, and at sporting events, I was soaking up radiation in front of my computer all weekend. The goal? To project performance so that I can maximize my PRA (Points + Rebounds + Assists) for every day of the week.

You may be picking the same players every week, or at least draw from a pool of about 10 different players. However, I found out quickly that it is not only the player you pick, but when you pick them. I am having some horrible luck (and documented throughout NBA.com) picking players for Drive to the Finals. Again, not the players I'm picking, but when I'm picking them.

So the goal is to make sure that I kick off the "bad luck demons" and do everything within my power to pick the right player on the right day. There are two very important factors when determining when to choose a player: 1) The opposition, and 2) Location.

Interestingly enough, I began thinking along these lines when I read the last Threat Assessment article by The Fantasy Guru. So, I credit him with getting us on the right track.

But, we're taking it a step further. After doing some research, I discovered that during the past two years there is about a 5% difference in points, 1% difference in rebounds, and 8% difference in assists depending on whether a game is played at home or on the road.

We don't stop there. The Phoenix Mercury allow 94.5 points per game versus the 64.3 currently allowed by the Comets. The difference in PRA allowed between the two teams is nearly 50. That, my friends, is a significant difference.

And so, I had a clear goal: Throw all of the WNBA stats into the spreadsheet and project PRA for upcoming games based on prior performance, opposition, and whether the game is at home or on the road.

I told you I was obsessed. Hang with me.

Numbers in, results out. The winning results. Below is a list of the players you need to choose this week. Maybe you listen to The Fantasy Guru. That is purely up to you. He is tried and true. The Time Machine is only based on science and facts.

Each week, we'll compare the results. Good luck!

If you would like a copy of the WNBA Time Machine spreadsheet, send Jon an e-mail.

Regular Season Projected
Day Player Team vs. Pts Reb Ast PRA Pts Reb Ast PRA
Monday NO GAMES ON THIS DAY
Tuesday  Yolanda Griffith SAC PHO 11.0 7.2 2.2 20.4 14 9 3 26
Wednesday  Lauren Jackson SEA CHI 22.5 7.3 2.0 31.8 22 9 2 32
Thursday NO GAMES ON THIS DAY
Friday  Lisa Leslie LOS CHI 21.5 12.0 2.3 35.8 21 14 2 37
Saturday  Vickie Johnson SAS NYL 14.7 4.8 4.7 24.2 16 5 6 27
Sunday  Sheryl Swoopes HOU MIN 15.7 6.5 4.0 26.2 17 6 5 29

Saturday
Dec. 6
Jr. WNBA Championship Series
With Chantelle Anderson
Atlanta, Ga.
Saturday
Dec. 6
Storm Coaches Clinic
With Sheryl Swoopes
Seattle, Wash.
Monday
Dec. 8
Houston Comets Dispersal Draft
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