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[NOTE: Saturday's Time Machine pick was changed from Tamika Catchings to Tamika Whitmore due to Catchings' injury.]
July 10 - Could've been better, right? The Time Machine had another average week, prompting some (or maybe just the voices in my head) to begin doubting the power of the abacus.
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Taurasi's 50 saved the Time Machine.
(Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty Images) |
Unfortunately, the other three were complete disappointments. Cheryl Ford, what happened? You've provided some masterful nights for me in the past. A 12? Really? Let's move on.
By the way, The Time Machine told you to pick Lisa Leslie on the day she had the season's best PRA performance. Just a reminder.
Also, I have to pimp something that Matthew Brennan ("The Fantasy Guru") said a while back. Stick with the well-rounded performers because if you rely on players with a high percentage of their PRA wrapped up in scoring you will get burned on bad shooting nights. So true. Three of the players I've been burned by are Cappie Pondexter, Seimone Augustus and Diana Taurasi. All three are primarily shooters.
Granted, Taurasi gave me my 50 PRA on Sunday, but it goes to show you that you are fighting with fire with these players. You'll get some great games, but you'll also get some not-so-great games. Then again, if you stick with the system it will all even out in the end.
Anyway, I think it's time to review the recommendations. I like to do that instead of bragging every week as if you don't remember what's happened in previous weeks. It's all on the table. The good and the bad.
Following is a list of all of the picks The Time Machine has made, comparing the player's Regular Season PRA up until that week, the Time Machine's Projected PRA for that game, and the player's Actual PRA for that game.
| Day | Player | Team | vs. | Reg Season PRA | Projected PRA | Actual PRA |
| Tuesday, June 6 | Yolanda Griffith | SAC | PHO | 20.4 | 26 | 31 |
| Wednesday, June 7 | Lauren Jackson | SEA | CHI | 31.8 | 32 | 26 |
| Friday, June 9 | Lisa Leslie | LOS | CHI | 35.8 | 37 | 34 |
| Saturday, June 10 | Vickie Johnson | SAS | NYL | 24.2 | 27 | 26 |
| Sunday, June 11 | Sheryl Swoopes | HOU | MIN | 26.2 | 29 | 0 |
| Tuesday, June 13 | Lisa Leslie | LOS | PHO | 36.0 | 41 | 41 |
| Wednesday, June 14 | Seimone Augustus | MIN | SEA | 28.8 | 29 | 36 |
| Thursday, June 15 | Lauren Jackson | SEA | CHI | 28.9 | 31 | 41 |
| Friday, June 16 | Nykesha Sales | CON | PHO | 24.9 | 30 | 26 |
| Saturday, June 17 | Alana Beard | WAS | NYL | 27.4 | 29 | 39 |
| Sunday, June 18 | Diana Taurasi | PHO | MIN | 30.7 | 33 | 27 |
| Tuesday, June 20 | Nykesha Sales | CON | CHA | 24.0 | 26 | 16 |
| Wednesday, June 21 | Lauren Jackson | SEA | PHO | 28.5 | 33 | 46 |
| Thursday, June 22 | Cheryl Ford | DET | CHA | 29.3 | 32 | 41 |
| Friday, June 23 | Tamika Catchings | IND | PHO | 29.4 | 36 | 26 |
| Saturday, June 24 | Seimone Augustus | MIN | NYL | 28.6 | 30 | 36 |
| Sunday, June 25 | Lisa Leslie | LOS | SAS | 36.3 | 34 | 57 |
| Tuesday, June 27 | Cheryl Ford | DET | SAS | 30.1 | 31 | 42 |
| Wednesday, June 28 | Diana Taurasi | PHO | MIN | 31.0 | 32 | 22 |
| Thursday, June 29 | Seimone Augustus | MIN | SAC | 28.3 | 28 | 18 |
| Friday, June 30 | Lisa Leslie | LOS | PHO | 35.5 | 40 | 26 |
| Saturday, July 1 | Lauren Jackson | SEA | MIN | 29.6 | 31 | 37 |
| Sunday, July 2 | Alana Beard | WAS | PHO | 27.2 | 32 | 0 |
| Monday, July 3 | Lisa Leslie | LOS | SAS | 33.2 | 32 | 31 |
| Wednesday, July 5 | Seimone Augustus | MIN | WAS | 27.9 | 27 | 31 |
| Thursday, July 6 | Cheryl Ford | DET | PHO | 29.3 | 33 | 12 |
| Friday, July 7 | Tamika Catchings | IND | LOS | 27.8 | 28 | 22 |
| Saturday, July 8 | Cappie Pondexter | PHO | CON | 27.9 | 27 | 17 |
| Sunday, July 9 | Diana Taurasi | PHO | NYL | 29.9 | 32 | 50 |
| TOTAL | 848.9 | 908 | 857 | |||
| TOTAL without June 11 and July 2 | 795.5 | 847 | 857 | |||
At face value, it's not all that impressive. The Time Machine received 857 points for the games it picked, which was eight points higher than those players' season averages. Also, the Actual PRA scored on those days ended up being a total of 51 points less than projected.
Scrap it, start over, throw it in the trash.
Not so fast. I added a separate row for you because there were two days that skewed results. As you know, The Time Machine and I give you pick recommendations on Monday of every week for each day of that week. Injuries happen, and I am not able to go in and change picks. On two of these days (June 11 and July 2), The Time Machine picked players (Sheryl Swoopes and Alana Beard) who did not play on those days due to injury.
And so, I am providing two final scores -- one based on all recommendations because I'm honest, and one based on all recommendations in which the player actually ran the court.
Why? Because The Time Machine is all about match-ups. Telling you to pick Beard on the day she ended up sitting due to an injury doesn't mean that the tool doesn't work. She scored a zero that day, but not because it was a bad match-up. If she had played and was held to a zero, that would be a different story.
So if we concentrate on the games that were actually played, The Time Machine projected within 10 points of the actual PRA for those games. Even more, the Actual PRA was 61.5 points higher than the players' average up until that week.
That, my friends, is evidence that the tool is working. I tell you it is all about match-ups. I tell you that each pick won't be money, but to stick with it. There have been some duds, but over the long haul the entire body of work has put up better numbers than the regular season average. Why? Because of the match-ups.
Don't doubt the power. Now, sit back and enjoy this week's recommendations...
| Regular Season | Projected | ||||||||||
| Day | Player | Team | vs. | Pts | Reb | Ast | PRA | Pts | Reb | Ast | PRA |
| Monday | NO GAMES ON THIS DAY | ||||||||||
| Tuesday | NO GAMES ON THIS DAY | ||||||||||
| Wednesday | NO GAMES ON THIS DAY | ||||||||||
| Thursday | NO GAMES ON THIS DAY | ||||||||||
| Friday | Lisa Leslie | LOS | PHO | 20.1 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 32.9 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 38 |
| Saturday | Tamika Whitmore | IND | CHA | 16.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 22.8 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 25 |
| Sunday | Diana Taurasi | PHO | NYL | 23.2 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 30.8 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 32 |