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June 26 - One week is a fluke. Two weeks a curiosity. Three weeks a trend.
The Time Machine, you see, is on fire. Smoke bellows. No water on the electrical fires! Let 'er burn.
I feel bad for pitting The Fantasy Guru against the unbeatable, but we do it once again. The Guru continues to put up nice numbers, but he keeps taking a beating at the hands of the spreadsheet. Following are last week's results:
| Date | Time Machine Pick | Time Machine PRA | Guru Pick | Guru PRA |
| 6/19 | No Games | 0 | No Games | 0 |
| 6/20 | Nykesha Sales | 16 | Nykesha Sales | 16 |
| 6/21 | Lauren Jackson | 46 | Tamika Catchings | 18 |
| 6/22 | Cheryl Ford | 41 | Cheryl Ford | 41 |
| 6/23 | Tamika Catchings | 26 | Diana Taurasi | 30 |
| 6/24 | Seimone Augustus | 36 | Seimone Augustus | 36 |
| 6/25 | Lisa Leslie | 57 | Lisa Leslie | 57 |
| TOTAL | 222 | 198 | ||
It's safe to say that 57 from Lisa Leslie helped pad both of our stats this week. Incredible. While we made the same picks outside of two, one -- Lauren Jackson on Wednesday -- was critical. You see, it's not just whom you pick but when you pick them. Time and time again.
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Ford paced The Time Machine's big week.
D. Lippitt/Einstein/NBAE/Getty Images) |
Some may scoff that The Time Machine is not getting first overall each week. No, that's not going to happen. They may boast and brag when they top it over a period of a week. Enough boasting and bragging. Enough scoffing. Unexpected performances will always skew the results, and The Time Machine is not about to take risks on unexpected performances. It is all about the expected. And therefore, we're going to spit out consistently solid results.
What does that mean? That means it is unlikely we'll provide the #1 performance of the week. But don't expect to see a disaster either. It's like the choice between picking a tech stock or throwing your money in the bank and watching it grow. No risks. And when all is said and done, I feel confident that you will win your league with this strategy.
It's like -- eh hem -- money in the bank.
I think it's time the grasshoppers -- that's you -- had a closer look under the hood of this fine machine of time travel. Call it a fantasy basketball DeLorean. If you've been following closely, you understand that this article writes itself due to a spreadsheet that projects performance based on match-ups and location.
As I pointed out in the very first Time Machine article, there is a slight advantage to picking a player when she is on her home court. The difference between a player's performance at home and on the road comes down to about 5%, or potentially one to two PRA. Some don't care about slight advantages. Every point helps. Championships are won and lost by slight advantages.
What isn't a slight advantage? Picking a player based on match-ups. Following is a list of WNBA teams and what they allow defensively on any given night:
| Team | Rebounds | Assists | Points | PRA |
| Phoenix Mercury | 40.6 | 17.5 | 88.6 | 146.7 |
| Charlotte Sting | 37.1 | 17.9 | 82.6 | 137.6 |
| Minnesota Lynx | 35.6 | 17.8 | 80.9 | 134.3 |
| New York Liberty | 34.5 | 16.1 | 80.6 | 131.2 |
| Chicago Sky | 36.2 | 17.5 | 76.3 | 130.0 |
| San Antonio Silver Stars | 35.8 | 13.5 | 73.6 | 122.9 |
| Los Angeles Sparks | 30.8 | 16.9 | 74.5 | 122.2 |
| Connecticut Sun | 32.9 | 15.7 | 72.9 | 121.5 |
| Seattle Storm | 29.1 | 15.9 | 76.4 | 121.4 |
| Sacramento Monarchs | 30.3 | 15.6 | 74.6 | 120.5 |
| Washington Mystics | 30.6 | 14.4 | 75.3 | 120.3 |
| Detroit Shock | 31.3 | 14.6 | 73.9 | 119.8 |
| Indiana Fever | 32.5 | 16.0 | 69.4 | 117.9 |
| Houston Comets | 32.4 | 14.6 | 68.3 | 115.3 |
We're not talking about a negligible difference here. You may get lucky and get a good game out of your player against the Comets once, but don't push your luck. Likewise, don't run away screaming if you pick a player with a juicy match-up against the Mercury and fail to perform. Stick with it.
The numbers don't lie.
And what numbers and names should you trust this week? I'm glad you asked. Here they are...
| Regular Season | Projected | ||||||||||
| Day | Player | Team | vs. | Pts | Reb | Ast | PRA | Pts | Reb | Ast | PRA |
| Monday | NO GAMES ON THIS DAY | ||||||||||
| Tuesday | Cheryl Ford | DET | SAS | 16.0 | 12.3 | 1.8 | 30.1 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 31 |
| Wednesday | Diana Taurasi | PHO | MIN | 24.1 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 31.0 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 32 |
| Thursday | Seimone Augustus | MIN | SAC | 22.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 28.3 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 28 |
| Friday | Lisa Leslie | LOS | PHO | 22.0 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 35.5 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| Saturday | Lauren Jackson | SEA | MIN | 19.9 | 7.7 | 2.0 | 29.6 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 31 |
| Sunday | Alana Beard | WAS | PHO | 20.2 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 27.2 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 32 |
Finally, I need to plug the Show Us What You've Got -- Fan to Famous campaign. If you are tired of winning all of your fantasy leagues and want to start spreading your knowledge to help educate the people, now is your opportunity to show your stuff. Send me an e-mail with "Show Us What You've Got" in the subject line and tell me in 300 words or less what you would write about. If we like it, we'll give you your 15 minutes of fame with a one-time featured article.
Good luck!