August 26 -- Isn't it great when things just fall into place like this? The top four teams coming into the Olympics, the United States, Australia, Russia and Brazil, now must battle it out with each other for the right to be called the best in the world.
The first of the two semifinal games on Friday features the United States against Russia. This isn't exactly a Cold War rivalry anymore, but these teams have been among the best in the world since women started competing internationally. Russia has a good inside presence and matches up well with the United States. Maria Stepanova is 6-8, has played in the WNBA and is familiar with the bigger American players in Lisa Leslie and Yolanda Griffith. Russia wants to be physical with the Americans and get Leslie and some others in foul trouble. They are a big, deep team. Even their backcourt is big.
They will need to take advantage of their size and be aggressive.
I was really surprised that the Czech Republic had so little to give in their game with Russia on Wednesday. We thought it would be a much closer contest than it was. Honestly, though, there were times when Russia didn't look that good, either. There was a stretch in the third quarter of that game where they didn't score many points and looked flat. But I know that Russia has three or four veteran players and that Baranova seems to rise to the occasion in international play, especially against the Americans. She did not play in 2000 because she had a knee injury, so I think she wants to redeem herself. They were not forced to play their key players a lot of minutes against the Czech Republic, so they should be rested.
|
|
|
All that said, the United States has the advantage in every position. They are so confident and riding on such a high that I don't believe that they will allow themselves to lose. Russia does present some good competition for them, but the American's team defense is just so good in terms of helping each other out. Sheryl Swoopes and the U.S. defense has a tendency to turn things up a notch when the importance is greater.
Van Chancellor really wanted to shorten the bench and get a rotation of eight players set up early. Diana Taurasi, Griffith and Shannon Johnson were the players that came off the bench in the first half and played very well. Griffith and Ruth Riley are X-factors for the U.S. Diana Taurasi has taken on the role of Katie Smith in terms of understanding how to get the ball inside to Lisa. Coach Chancellor gave Diana the opportunity to play with Lisa Leslie today. Her shot is starting to fall a bit and she is driving to the basket.
The only thing that could hurt the Americans is if they get into foul trouble. Lisa Leslie has to stay in the game because she is the best player in the world and her experience proves that. Even though the Americans gave up too many points against Greece, there is too much experience on that team and too many players on that team who can lift each other up to get complacent.
And For An Encore...
Brazil and Australia will play in the second semifinal game. I had the chance to watch these two teams play in the preliminary round last Sunday when Australia won by 18, but I think this game will be much closer. Even though they lost, Brazil already knew they had made the medal round and rested their star players. Coach Barbosa kept four of the five starters out most of that second half and perhaps gave that game away.
In Janeth Arcain, Brazil has one of the top players in the world. She had an amazing game over Spain, scoring 27 points on Wednesday. She has had a terrific Olympics. Their big players are going to have to step up and do a good job taking care of the basketball.
|
|
|
Overall, I would give the edge to Australia. Jackson is one of the best players in the world and she can take a team on her shoulders. Australia can get to the free throw line, so inside play will be a key factor. Australia also has some big players that can spot up and knock down a long shot. Jackson, Sporn and Fallon can all hit a 15- to 18-foot jump shot, so Brazil will have to come out and defend that. That then leaves the lane wide open for Australia's cutters.
That would set up a USA-Australia Gold Medal game rematch...
One Game for Gold
With so many games back-to-back, everybody will be affected to an extent and fatigue could be a factor. The only teams that have really been able to rest their players at all have been the United States and Russia. The player who had played the most minutes for the U.S. was Tamika Catchings, at 23 minutes per game. But the U.S. and international players that play in the WNBA all average between 30 and 35 minutes per game. Or more. So I don't think that conditioning will be a problem for the Americans.
I am absolutely sticking with the Americans to win it all. They are fresh, they are experienced and they have a great mix of veterans and know how to win. Again, the only thing that could have hurt the Americans is foul trouble, but they have been alright so far and are so deep that they could probably handle such a challenge.
I am also going to pull for the U.S. men. I believe in them. I think they have made a lot of adjustments and have what it takes to win. Both the men's and women's teams are close and talk to each other a lot. A lot of the men were out supporting them in the game against Greece and in the early rounds and I think that really is a positive. They know what they have to do.
These are the moments, the experiences, the games that athletes look forward to and savor. It will never get any bigger than this. I can't wait.